The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Indiana Pacers – $12,200 DraftKings, $12,700 FanDuel
The biggest news on tonight’s eight-game slate is the status of Luka Doncic. He is listed questionable with an ankle injury, but has been playing through it and dominating. Doncic has recorded a triple-double in three consecutive games and is averaging 37.5 points, 12.8 assists, 10.8 rebounds, and 76.7 DraftKings points per game in his last four contests. He leads the league in scoring and usage rate by a wide margin at 35.9%. Doncic has the highest projected ceiling on both sites.
The Mavericks are 4.5-point home favorites against the Pacers, implied for a slate-high 125.25 points. The Pacers are one of the best possible matchups for a high-usage player like Doncic. They rank second in pace and 26th in defensive rating while allowing a league-high 59.8 points per game in the paint. If Doncic is out, Kyrie Irving is the main beneficiary tonight.
Top Value: Vasilije Micic vs. Orlando Magic – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Hornets rookie Vasilije Micic started his first game of the season on Sunday and finished with over 25 DraftKings points for the second straight game. He remains affordable across the industry, which is why he is projected for the second-highest ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the seventh-highest on DraftKings. Projected to start and play around 32 minutes, Micic is an elite value play in all formats.
The Hornets are 8.5-point home underdogs, implied for a slate-low 99.5 points. This is not an ideal matchup, with the Magic ranking fifth in defensive rating while also playing at the fifth-slowest pace. Regardless of the matchup, Micic’s cheap price tag and projected playing time mitigates the tough spot. Prioritize him on FanDuel, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Maxey at Brooklyn Nets – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
With point guard and shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings, Tyrese Maxey continues to thrive playing without Joel Embiid. The first-time All-Star is averaging a career-high 26 points and 6.3 assists per game. In the 22 games that Maxey has played without Embiid, he is averaging 26.4 points per game with a 30.2% usage rate. He is playing an absurd amount of minutes recently and is projected for over 38 tonight, which is the third-highest on the slate. More minutes equals more opportunities.
Both the 76ers and Nets have plummeted in the Eastern Conference standings. The 76ers are 2.5-point road favorites in what is projected to be a close, competitive game. The Nets are a poor perimeter defense, with opponents shooting 37.9% from behind the arc. Maxey has dominated this matchup, averaging 24 points and 7.5 assists per game while shooting 47.4% from downtown. Projected for around 5% ownership across the industry, Maxey is a strong contrarian pay-up option.
Top Value: Sam Merrill vs. Boston Celtics – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Injuries are taking a toll on the Cavaliers backcourt with Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus out and Caris LeVert listed questionable. That has provided more opportunity for the sharpshooter Sam Merrill. In his first full season with the team, Merrill is averaging a career-high in points and shooting 44.1% from behind the arc. Over 85% of his field goal attempts have come from downtown this season. In his last two games, he has only shot 3-pointers and connected on 11 of them.
One of the best ways to attack the Celtics’ defense is from the perimeter. They are allowing 37.7 3-point attempts per game, which is tied for the third-highest in the league. It won’t take much for Merrill to exceed his salary tonight. At $4,100 on DraftKings, He has the highest projected Plus/Minus and the highest ownership. He allows the ability to pay up for studs.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Cleveland Cavaliers – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Jayson Tatum could find himself in an elite spot with Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis both questionable. With both Brown and Porzingis off the floor this season, Tatum has a +6.25% usage rate in 545 minutes. Expect Tatum’s projected ownership to rise if both Brown and Porzingis are ruled out. He continues to lead the team in points, rebounds, and usage rate while being reasonably priced across the industry. With dual forward eligibility, it is not hard to get exposure to Tatum.
The Celtics and Cavaliers rank second and third in defensive rating this season. With a game total of only 217.5 points, expect a low-scoring battle. That is drawing some attention off Tatum, which makes him intriguing for tournaments. He looks like another strong contrarian pay-up option, but would look so much better if Brown and Porzingis are unable to play.
Top Value: Jalen Green vs. San Antonio Spurs – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Jalen Green has scored 34 points in back-to-back games against the Suns and will now get a juicy matchup against the Spurs at home. Green is a streaky fantasy producer but has the ceiling to find his way into the optimal lineup. He has accumulated over 50 DraftKings points in three of his last nine games. However, in the six other games, Green is averaging 24.8 DraftKings points per game. He has done a great job rebounding lately, but most of his production comes from scoring.
The Rockets are 7.5-point favorites against the Spurs, who rank third in pace and 24th in defensive rating. These two teams have split both games this season and Green not surprisingly had one good game and one poor game in their meetings. Which Green will show up is anyone’s guess, but he is a great tournament option on DraftKings with an 88% Bargain Rating.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero at Charlotte Hornets – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Paolo Banchero has scored 29 points in back-to-back games while shooting 10-for-16 in each contest. He added 8.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 46.9 DraftKings points per game during that stretch. Priced at $8,600 across the industry, Banchero looks like a better option on FanDuel. He has 11 Pro Trends and an 83% Bargain Rating. The first-time All-Star leads the Magic in points, rebounds, and assists this season while averaging a career-high across the board in each stat.
Banchero will draw one of the best matchups in the league. The Hornets rank last in net rating and 28th in defensive rating this season. In his only game against the Hornets, Banchero posted a near triple-double with 23 points, eight assists, seven rebounds, and two steals while shooting 50% from the field and 40% from downtown. Another fantastic spot to get different.
Top Value: Kelly Olynyk vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $6,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Despite shooting 0-for-4 from the field in the last game, Kelly Olynyk still returned a positive Plus/Minus for the second straight game. Olynyk has filled in nicely for the Raptors without Scottie Barnes for the foreseeable future. He recorded a 16-point, 10-rebound double-double in his first game, playing extended minutes when Barnes was injured. Projected to play nearly 30 minutes tonight, Olynyk has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel at his incredibly cheap $5,800 salary.
The Pelicans are one of the better rebounding teams that also defends the paint well. However, Olynyk’s versatility can cause havoc on opposing defenses. He can score from all three levels, and his power forward and center eligibility makes it easy to fit him in any lineup. Prioritize him on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating and a slate-high 58% ownership.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama at Houston Rockets – $10,700 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Victor Wembanyama is another questionable star who is dealing with an injury. This slate could get flipped on its head if both Wembanyama and Doncic are ruled out. Wembanyama has basically locked up the rookie of the year over the last eight games. During that time, he is averaging 24.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, 5.4 blocks, and 63.9 DraftKings points per game.
Considerably cheap on DraftKings at $10,700, Wembanyama has a 96% Bargain Rating and 11 Pro Trends. However, his defensive upside still makes him in play on FanDuel. The Spurs have won back-to-back games for the fourth time all season and will travel to a state rival tonight in the Rockets. Wembanayama has had no problem asserting his dominance in this matchup, averaging a massive double-double with 18 points and 15 rebounds per game. If he plays, the ceiling is very high.
Top Value: Alperen Sengun vs. San Antonio Spurs – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Staying in the same game, Rockets center Alperen Sengun has recorded a double-double in four of his last five games. Sengun finished with 40 or more DraftKings points in each of those four games and had a 31.4% usage rate last game. He leads the Rockets in points and rebounds, averaging a career-high in both statistics. Priced at $8,200 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Sengun has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position behind Wembanyama and Olynyk tonight.
Despite Wembanyama’s elite shot-blocking abilities, the Spurs rank 25th in both points allowed in the paint and rebounding percentage at. Sengun has had no troubles in this matchup, averaging 20 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game, while shooting 56.7% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. He also leads the FanDuel slate with 13 Pro Trends.
