After a very busy week, the NBA has only three games on Saturday’s schedule before 10 more games on Easter Sunday. To include all three games on the schedule in the main DFS fantasy basketball slate, DraftKings gets things started early, with contests locking at 5:00 p.m. ET. Of the six teams in action, only the Magic are finishing a back-to-back, and none play on Sunday.
Make sure not to let the early deadline sneak up on you! Keeping up with the latest injury and availability news is always important, especially on a small slate like this one. Always be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and adjustments.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
With Trae Young (finger) out, the Hawks have become extremely dependent on Dejounte Murray, and the star point guard has stepped up to the task and has been exceptional over the last few weeks. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all point guards on Saturday and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus. He is a relatively safe play with so much volume but also brings a high ceiling.
Young was hurt in the team’s first game after the All-Star Break, and since then, Murray has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute in 37.3 minutes per game with a 30.5% usage rate. He’s been even better than that lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in five straight games with an Average Plus/Minus of 13.3 DraftKings points, and an impressive production rate of 1.62 DraftKings points per minute.
He and the Hawks have a tough matchup, as they host the Bucks, but they may catch a bit of a break with Damian Lillard (personal) away from the team. The Hawks took down the Celtics twice this week, including on Thursday when Murray went off for 44 points. He will have to have another big game to keep things close with the Bucks, so he’s a great point guard play to build around Saturday night.
Value
While he’s not a bargain play, CJ McCollum is projected to be the best value at point guard on Saturday. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position, as he continues to step up and fill in for the absence of Brandon Ingram (knee).
Since the injury to Ingram, McCollum has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games, averaging 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in 38 minutes per game with a 29.3% usage rate. His season usage rate is 24.6%, but that number jumps to 28.2% with Ingram off the floor. Without Ingram, McCollum uses that extra work to produce 1.23 DraftKings points per minute.
McCollum has scored at least 23 points in four straight games and will try to keep the Pelicans on track as they host the Celtics in the early game on Saturday.
Fast Break
Jalen Suggs has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards. He had 15 points and five assists on Friday, and he could be set up for more work in the backcourt once again depending on which other guards Orlando has available in the second game of their back-to-back. He has shown enough upside to be a solid mid-range option, but double check his usage and minutes projections once the Magic’s injury report drops.
On the other side of that matchup, Scotty Pippen Jr. should be ready to bounce back after a couple of quiet games. He started alongside Desmond Bane (back) in those two contests but should get more work with Bane out on Saturday. He has dealt with injuries of his own this season but has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute when available, and that increases to 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with Bane off the floor.
Without Dame, the Bucks will have to get plenty of production from other spots. Patrick Beverley (wrist) is probable even though he announced on his podcast that he’s playing through a torn tendon in his wrist. How effective he will be and how much work he will carry is uncertain. If Beverley is limited, A.J. Green would have interesting potential from his minimum salary.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
In the big picture and long term, it’s great that the Celtics have all their key players back in the rotation after getting most of them some time off. Their rotation is a little crowded though, with everyone back in action, which makes fantasy production a little hard to pinpoint. They do have the highest implied team total on the slate, as they visit the Pelicans, and there are definitely some good options to consider.
One of their most productive players regardless of who else is available or resting has been Derrick White. His ceiling and median projections are the second-highest on the slate behind only his teammate, Jaylen Brown. White’s floor projection is actually higher than Brown’s, and he comes almost $1,000 cheaper.
White has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games by producing 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 36.2 minutes per game with a 20.6% usage rate and a team-high 26.6% assist rate. Even with Jrue Holiday back in the mix, White should continue to get plenty of usage for the Celtics as they tune up for the playoffs. After dropping two games in Atlanta to start the week, they’ll be fired up to take out the Pelicans in the Big Easy on Saturday. White has been the most consistent Celtics’ option and makes a strong play to build around given his multi-category potential.
Value
In Atlanta’s matchup with the Bucks, Bogdan Bogdanovic has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and all small forwards on Saturday’s slate. He’s had some ups and downs since moving into the lineup in place of Trae Young, but he usually has his best games when the Hawks play at home. Normally home/road splits aren’t one of my go-to predictive stats in the NBA (it’s much more an MLB thing) but for Bogdanovic, it seems to make a significant difference. He has produced 1.03 DraftKings points per minute at home compared to 0.94 DraftKings points per minute on the road.
Bogdanovic has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games this week (all at home), averaging 0.93 DraftKings points per minute but logging a massive 40 minutes per game. With more work continuing to come his way due to injury, he should be a solid mid-range option again in this matchup.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown does deserve a look as a pay-up play even though the Celtics have more options available. He has the highest median and ceiling projection at shooting guard on Saturday’s slate and has scored at least 18 points in all 12 of his games in March while averaging 1.28 DraftKings points per minute and posting a team-high 32.5% usage rate.
Cole Anthony has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of shooting guards with salaries under $5,000. He only had eight points on Friday, snapping a streak of four straight double-digit scoring games in which he exceeded salary-based expectations by at least 15 DraftKings points in each game. He should be able to bounce back against the Grizzlies, especially if any other Magic guards are sidelined.
Without Dame, Malik Beasley should have even more of a green light for the Bucks. He has scored 20 and 21 points in his last two games and over 15 points in four of his last six. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those four games. With Lillard off the floor, his usage increases over two percentage points to 17.1%, and since he’ll have to play so many minutes, he’s a strong mid-range target with a high ceiling on Saturday.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward on this slate and is a good pay-up play even though he has plenty of help to carry Boston’s offense. Tatum has scored 30+ points in four of his last five games and usually plays heavy minutes and usage unless the game turns into a blowout. While the Celtics do have the highest implied team total, they’re only -5.5, so Vegas expects a competitive game against the Pelicans.
Tatum had big games in both losses to the Hawks, pouring in 37 points on Monday to go with eight rebounds and five assists in 40 minutes. On Thursday, he had a double-double with 31 points and 13 rebounds along with six assists. In nine straight games and 13 of his last 14, Tatum has scored at least 25 points. That kind of consistent production makes him fairly low-risk, while the fact that he can go off for monster games gives him a very high ceiling as well.
Value
Without Dame, Khris Middleton will have to be more involved in play making for the Bucks, which should set him up for a big game. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards and the third-highest floor projection.
Since returning from his ankle injury, Middleton has played five games, averaging 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in 31.2 minutes per game. This season, Middleton’s usage has jumped from 19.9% with Lillard on the floor to 32.1% with Lillard off the floor. In the four games Middleton has played without Dame, he has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute and 27.1 DraftKings points per game.
With extra work coming his way, this should be a chance for Middleton to show he’s back and ready to contribute down the stretch for the Bucks. Given the Hawks’ multiple injuries on the wing and their tendency to give up big numbers to opposing forwards, Middleton is one of the strongest plays on Saturday’s slate.
Fast Break
The Pelicans replaced Ingram in the lineup with Trey Murphy III, who always brings a high ceiling with his long-range shooting. He can be streaky, though, and hit a bit of a cold stretch in his first few starts. He looked much better on Thursday in a win over the Bucks and finished with a double-double of 15 points and 11 boards. If he keeps doing good work on the glass, he’ll have an even higher ceiling and be a great option at his salary. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on this slate at shooting guard and the third-highest at small forward.
Franz Wagner has been deferring a little more lately for the Magic and his salary has dropped steeply as a result. It’s all the way down to $6,500 on Saturday’s slate, which gives him the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. He has a very high ceiling if he’s more aggressive against the Grizzlies, and this could be a good spot to buy the dip.
The Grizzlies’ rotation is ever-changing and somewhat unpredictable, but lately, Jake LaRavia has been one of the forwards stepping up. LaRavia has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 12 games while averaging 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in 26.9 minutes per game. LaRavia dropped 25 points against the Lakers on Wednesday and has 12+ points in five of his last six contests. He’s a solid bargain option at forward at only $4,400.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Zion Williamson will need to continue to step up for the Pelicans while Ingram is out, and he has shown a very high ceiling when given extra work. He has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at power forward since both Tatum (discussed above) and Giannis Antetkounmpo (discussed below) are eligible at the position. Zion has a better Projected Plus/Minus and a better Pts/Sal than Tatum, though, since his salary is under $9,000.
On Tuesday, Zion had an impressive 29-point, 10-assist double-double against the Thunder, exceeding salary-based expectations by about 10 DraftKings points for the second straight game. He also led the Pels to a win over the Bucks on Thursday with 28 points but only had five rebounds. In three straight games, Zion has 28+ points while posting a team-high 31.6% usage rate in 35.7 minutes per game. He averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in that small sample size, which is right on track with what he has produced this season with Ingram off the floor.
In a tough matchup with Boston, Zion will need to rise to the occasion, and getting him a little cheaper than Tatum or Murray makes him a good option to pair with Giannis if you go with cheaper guards and big-priced big men.
Value
Since joining the Grizzlies from the Celtics at the trade deadline, Lamar Stevens has been a good value when he’s in the Memphis rotation. He missed six games with an adductor injury, which has kept him off the radar, but he has looked good in his two games since returning. He exceeded salary-based expectations in both those contests, finishing with 19 points against the Nuggets and 11 points against the Lakers.
Stevens has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards and the second-highest of all centers on Saturday’s slate. He has a projection of 27.8 minutes with a 20.2% usage rate and could be one of the main players to pick up work with Bane out. Stevens has produced 1.00 DraftKings points per minute in his 13 games with the Grizzlies while posting a 23.9% usage rate in 21.7 minutes per game.
Fast Break
Despite losing three straight, the Magic continue to get good work from second-year forward Paolo Banchero. Banchero had scored 20+ points in four of his last six games, highlighted by a 20-point triple-double against Zion and the Pelicans. He’s in a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Grizzlies, but his projections are just a little lower than Zion’s.
Keep an eye on the Hawks’ injury updates since they listed Jalen Johnson (ankle) as questionable after missing five straight games. Johnson’s return would be huge for the injury-depleted Hawks’ forwards, although it would be hard to trust him at over $7,000 in his first game back.
Banchero’s teammate, Jonathan Isaac is a good value play at just over $4,000. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games with an Average Plus/Minus of 6.29 DraftKings points. He showed his ceiling with a 25-point performance during that stretch against the Kings, but he can be a little high-risk, especially on the second game of back-to-backs. Stevens is safer, but Isaac is a high-upside potential pivot.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Especially with Dame out, Saturday sets up as a smash spot for Giannis Antetokounmpo against the Hawks. Giannis has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the entire slate by a wide margin and a top-four Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate as well.
Giannis has scored at least 29 points in seven of his last eight games and has seven double-doubles including two triple-doubles over that stretch. He has produced 1.65 DraftKings points per minute over that stretch with a 32.7% usage rate in 37.4 minutes per game.
With Dame off the floor this season, Antetkounmpo’s usage has climbed to over 35%. With Middleton on the floor and Lillard off, Giannis has produced 1.71 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.8% usage rate. However you slice the numbers Giannis is amazing, but with extra work coming his way, he becomes almost a must-play option even at his salary of $11,000.
Value
The Hawks have been getting very solid work from Clint Capela in the middle lately, and his workload should be reliable even if Johnson returns. Capela has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center and the fourth-highest median and ceiling projections.
Capela has posted 10 double-doubles in his last 11 games, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of those contests. Over that stretch, he produced 1.35 DraftKings points per minute in 26.5 minutes per game. He has gelled very well with Murray as the top creator in Atlanta’s offense and remains a defensive force as well.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis can be a huge part of the Celtics offense when it’s going well for Boston. He had 20 points and seven boards on Thursday and played over 40 minutes, which is a good sign that he’s healthy coming down the stretch. On the season, Porzingis has produced 1.25 DraftKings points per minute, which is the second-highest mark of the regulars on the team, behind only Tatum. He has the second-highest median and ceiling projection at center on Saturday’s slate.
I don’t blame you if you stopped keeping track of the Memphis madness, but if you did, you might have missed that Brandon Clarke made his season debut on Wednesday. He played 21 minutes and finished with six points, five boards, an assist, and a steal. After over a year working his way back from Achilles surgery, Clarke will likely continue to have limited minutes, but at a salary of just $3,300, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player on Saturday’s slate.
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