On Saturday night, there is only one game on the NBA schedule. Saturday’s lone matchup is a tasty one, though, between the Timberwolves and the Nuggets, who will meet at 7:00 p.m. ET in Denver in the first game of the West Semifinals. The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites at home against Minnesota and the game total is 208.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
If you’re looking for superstars, you’ve come to the right series. Nikola Jokic is the biggest star in the series and comes with the biggest salary, but there’s easily a case to be made that he belongs as your Captain Pick.
Jokic has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all the players on the slate by a wide margin. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the utility spot. His production is so high that it’s hard to pass him up in at least that spot, and you can definitely build around him in the Captain spot as well, although that leaves you very, very thin on salary for other stars.
In the five games against the Lakers, Jokic produced an amazing 1.68 DraftKings points per minute while playing 40.2 minutes per game. He had at least a double-double in every game, with two triple-doubles. He capped it off with a 20-20 night in Game 5, producing 62 DraftKings points on 25 points, 20 boards, and nine assists.
After dominating Anthony Davis, he’ll now move on to face Rudy Gobert in this round. No matchup seems to really slow him down, though, and he averaged 57.8 DraftKings points in 35.5 minutes per game in his four head-to-head matchups with Minnesota this season.
While Jokic was the most productive Nugget in Round 1, Jamal Murray also stepped up as a clutch performer. Murray hit a pair of game-winning shots in the series and averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute while logging 39.6 minutes per game. He finished the series with 32 points and seven assists while playing through a calf injury that also has him questionable for Game 1 of this matchup.
As long as he continues to play through the injury, Murray has a very high ceiling, as he showed with over 49 DraftKings points twice against the Lakers. Against the Timberwolves, he averaged 37.5 DraftKings points in three meetings while playing 30.4 minutes per game. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a utility spot and the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the board.
Timberwolves’ superstar Anthony Edwards slots between Jokic and Murray on the salary structure and in our projections. His Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal are a little lower than the Nuggets’ two stars and indicate he’s a little overpriced. Edwards led the Timberwolves to a four-game sweep of the Suns in Round 1 by producing 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those four games and put up over 55 DraftKings points three times, including in his 40-point performance in the finale.
Edwards has a game-high 31.3% usage projection on Saturday with a projection of 38.9 minutes. He has the potential to carry his team in multiple ways, and if you think Minnesota is going to steal Game 1, building around him as your Captain is a great way to lean into that narrative.
If you do go with Ant as Captain, it’s possible to go with either Jokic or Murray in a flex spot, but then your salary cap gets really tight. The only way to include all three superstars is to go with them in flex positions and try to find a Captain from the next tier down. If you’re going to have one as Captain and one in the flex, my favorite configuration is Edwards as Captain with Jokic in the flex.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
The Timberwolves bigs may be the key to unlocking the value you need on this slate. Rudy Gobert has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the flex spot and comes a huge step down from the salary of the superstars. He had a quiet game in Game 4 against the Suns but still averaged a solid 0.99 DraftKings points per minute. The Wolves will need a big series from him and Karl-Anthony Towns in support of Edwards if they want to keep up with Jokic and Murray.
KAT looked healthy in the four games against the Suns and produced 1.31 DraftKings points per minute, a mark second only to Edwards on the team. He was limited to just 28 minutes per game, but his workload jumped up to 39 minutes in Game 4, when he had 28 points, 10 rebounds, and 48.5 DraftKings points. If Towns is ready to play a full workload, he’ll take away Gobert’s production and could definitely provide excellent value at his salary.
If you build with him at Captain, you can play two other stars and still have some salary to include other strong utility plays. With Towns, the question is just how large of a workload he’s ready to carry, but if he can, he has a much higher ceiling than his salary indicates.
Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels round out the Timberwolves’ starting five. Conley had double-digit points in each of the final three games of the series against the Suns, and McDaniels contributed a spike performance in Game 2 with 25 points and 42 DraftKings points. McDaniels brings enough upside to be a good flier, but he’s high-risk since his usage is volatile. Conley is a little more consistent but also more expensive at $7,000 in a utility spot.
The Nuggets supporting cast had a great series against the Lakers. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. both had big games in the series and have high ceilings against the Timberwolves as well. Porter’s projections are slightly higher, but Gordon’s projections indicate he will be a better value since he’s cheaper. Gordon’s production in Round 1 was consistent but unspectacular aside from his explosion in Game 3 when he had 54.75 DraftKings points on 29 points and 15 rebounds. He has that kind of ceiling in this series as well, although he’s not usually called upon to carry that much of the offense.
Porter’s role has been a little larger on a game-by-game basis, and he finished with a 19.4% usage rate in the last series compared to a 15.2% usage rate for Gordon. Porter produced 1.03 DraftKings per minute in the series and played 39.2 minutes per game. He’s the third scoring option for the Nuggets behind Jokic and Murray, and if Murray’s injury ever slows him down, MPJ would get even more room to shine. He’s a safer and more productive play than Gordon, even though both forwards bring high upside.
The other member of the Nuggets’ starting lineup is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who plays plenty of minutes but has a very low usage rate. He averaged just 0.52 DraftKings points per minute in the first round but did play 36.0 minutes per game. He can work as a value play, but he’s not quite cheap enough to make him worth it on this single-game slate.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,600): Alexander-Walker has been the top bench option for these two teams so far this postseason. He played 31 minutes a game in the first round and produced 0.83 DraftKings points per minute. He exceeded salary-based expectations in the first three of the four games in the series and filled the stat sheet with good production across the board. NAW is the best play under $5,000 by a wide margin both in terms of pure upside and Pts/Sal.
- Naz Reid ($5,000): Reid won Sixth Man of the Year, but he struggled in the first round since KAT and Gobert soaked up most of the minutes. He has a huge ceiling if he gets an expanded role, but he failed to reach salary-based expectations in any of the four games against the Suns. Granted, the Nuggets should be a better matchup for him, but he’s still high risk at $5,000.
- Kyle Anderson ($3,800): Anderson played through a hip injury that had him questionable in the first round. He failed to reach salary-based expectations in the first three games of the series but had a strong 15.75 DraftKings points in 17 minutes in Game 4. He chips in solid non-scoring stats when he gets time, and maybe the time between the series has helped him be closer to full strength. He’s a solid option if you need a play under $4,000.
- Peyton Watson ($3,000): Watson played double-digit minutes in all but one game of the Nuggets’ first-round win over the Lakers. He fell below salary-based expectations in each of those contests but does get enough playing time to be one of the best bench options from the Denver side. He has the highest Pts/Sal of all the players on the Nuggets bench.
- Reggie Jackson ($2,800): Jackson sprained his ankle in the series against the Lakers but was able to play through the injury without missing a game. He played a series-high 18 minutes in Game 5 and contributed eight points while exceeding salary-based expectations for the first time this postseason. If Murray is slowed, Jackson will be a key to the Nuggets still being competitive. With that possibility boosting his upside, he’s a key play to consider at this very affordable salary.
