The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,700 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
For the first time all year, Jalen Brunson leads the slate with the highest projected ceiling in our models for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Averaging a career-high 27.6 points and 6.6 assists per game, he has been incredible for the Knicks recently, with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby still nursing injuries. Over the last 10 games with both Randle and Anunoby off the floor, Brunson is averaging an impressive 31.8 points and 7.3 assists per game with a 36.6% usage rate.
The Knicks are a slate-high 11-point home favorites against the Pistons, who currently have the worst defensive rating in the league at 119.8. In his only meeting against the Pistons this season, Brunson erupted for 42 points, eight assists, and six rebounds, and that was with Randle and RJ Barrett playing. He made seven 3-pointers in that contest and looks poised for another stellar performance tonight. Still priced below $10,000 across the industry, Brunson is a top-tier pay-up option.
Top Value: Terry Rozier at Sacramento Kings – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
The Miami Heat will be providing value on this slate, but we need to keep an eye on their news to see who is in and out of the lineup. Jimmy Butler is out, while Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier are questionable to play tonight. Rozier is popping in our model as the preferred option over Herro due to his cheap price tag. Rozier hasn’t played since February 11th, but his practice sessions have been ramping up. If he is good to go, he is one of the best values on this four-game slate tonight.
Prioritize Rozier on FanDuel, where he has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Priced at $6,000, he has a 97% Bargain Rating and is drawing a slate-high 55% projected ownership. Before his recent injury, Rozier was starting to find a groove with his new team, averaging 15.2 points per game in his last five games despite shooting 37% from the field.
Editor’s note: Rozier has been ruled out. Check the NBA Models for updates.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham at New York Knicks – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
With point guard and shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, Cade Cunningham is the clear best option at this position tonight. The rest of the shooting guards leave a lot to be desired. Cunningham is one of the lone bright spots for the Pistons this season. The third-year pro is averaging a career and team-high 22.2 points and 7.4 assists per game. His shooting percentages have risen, and he has been playing much better recently, with 28 points per game since the All-Star Break.
Projected for around 20% ownership across the industry, Cunningham is a strong play in all formats. After the break, he came out of the gates strong. In his last two games, he has a 34.2% usage rate with 20.5 field goal attempts per game. Regardless of the difficult matchup against the Knicks, Cunningham will be heavily involved yet again.
Top Value: Quentin Grimes at New York Knicks – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Staying in the Pistons’ backcourt, newly acquired Quentin Grimes will get a chance for an early revenge against the Knicks tonight. Grimes has only played in one game since being traded from the Knicks. In that contest, he played 26 minutes and stuffed the stat sheet with five points, four assists, two rebounds, two steals, and one block. The versatile guard is projected to play around 25 minutes and currently has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at his $3,600 price tag.
There are a limited selection of pay-up options on this four-game slate, but Grimes is still a cheap way to fit them in. He doesn’t have to do much to exceed his salary on DraftKings or FanDuel. Other than the starters, it was promising to see Grimes play the most minutes of the Pistons bench. If his shot falls, Grimes will easily find his way into the optimal lineup.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes at Indiana Pacers – $8,900 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Scottie Barnes is another promising third-year pro who is averaging a career-high across the board in points, rebounds, and assists this season. Barnes’ versatility has been on display recently where he is averaging 18.5 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game in his last six games. During that time, he has captured four double-doubles and one triple-double. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in five of those six games and is very affordable on DraftKings and FanDuel.
This Raptors and Pacers matchup is by far the best game environment on the slate. The total of this game is a slate-high 244.5 points, which is nearly 20 points higher than the next closest game. The Raptors are six-point road underdogs, but this matchup suits Barnes’ skillset perfectly. He could flirt with another triple-double and is one of the best pay-up options.
Top Value: Ziaire Williams vs. Brooklyn Nets – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
With the Grizzlies basically out of playoff contention, they have become a glorified G-League team. One player who does have upside for the Grizzlies’ long-term plans is Ziaire Williams. The former top 10 pick has displayed a ceiling, but can also look like he simply doesn’t belong. Which Williams will show up tonight? The one who scored 27 points against the Bucks earlier this month, or the one who shot 0-for-8 against the Heat with no points. He is a tournament boom-or-bust option.
There are a few positive things working in Williams’ favor tonight. The matchup against the Nets, who rank 21st in defensive rating, and the fact that he is projected to play 30 minutes at a relatively cheap salary. There are not a lot of options popping in this game, but Williams is by far the best. At under $5,000 on both sites, Williams is a strong tournament value tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. Brooklyn Nets – $7,900 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Jaren Jackson Jr. gets the slight nod over Pascal Siakam for the best power forward option on this slate, mainly due to his cheap salary on DraftKings, where Jackson Jr. is only $7,900, which is resulting in a 91% Bargain Rating. Siakam looks better on FanDuel, where he is $1,000 cheaper. With so many players out for the Grizzlies, Jackson Jr. has taken on a much larger role in the offense. That was significantly proven last game when Jackson Jr. had a 40.7% usage rate and 29 points.
If Jackson Jr. is going to be attempting 25 field goals like he did last game, he is impossible to ignore. Nets center Nic Claxton does provide a strong defensive upside, but Jackson Jr. can stretch the floor with his perimeter shooting and cause havoc on the defense. Over his last six games, he has attempted 8.2 3-pointers per game. The volume is amazing.
Top Value: Josh Hart vs. Detroit Pistons – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
With the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position on DraftKings and second-highest on FanDuel, Josh Hart is another way to get exposure to the Knicks offense in their great spot tonight. With the injuries to Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, Hart has taken on a larger role offensively and dominated the glass. In his last 11 games, Hart is averaging a near double-double with 11.5 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. He has recorded a double-double in six of those 11 games.
The best thing about rostering him is the playing time. Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau absolutely loves Hart. In the 17 games that he has started this season, he is averaging 37.8 minutes per game. Our model has him projected for a slate-high 37.8 minutes tonight. Playing that much against a poor Pistons defense and Hart is going to look like an elite value.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Miami Heat – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
It is surprising to see Domantas Sabonis not have the highest projected ceiling on this slate, given how well he has played recently. Not only has Sabonis played well, but the Kings are coming off a huge road win against the Clippers last night. They have another tough test at home against the Heat but are 6.5-point home favorites. He is coming off his seventh triple-double in his last nine games. Last night, he dominated the Clippers with 17 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists.
Sabonis has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in eight consecutive games and has a great chance to make it three straight against the Heat tonight. Despite being the most expensive player, Sabonis leads the slate with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel. The Heat do rank seventh in defensive rating this year, but Sabonis has become matchup-proof at this point.
Top Value: Myles Turner vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Priced in the mid-range on DraftKings and FanDuel, Myles Turner has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the center position on FanDuel and the second-highest behind Sabonis on DraftKings. Turner has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four consecutive games and in six of his last seven. During that seven-game stretch, he is averaging a near double-double with 20.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Turner is coming off a season-high 33 points against the Mavericks last game.
He will draw another juicy matchup against the Raptors, who rank 25th in points allowed in the paint at 54.1 per game. They also rank 21st in rebounding percentage, making this another good opportunity for him to record a double-double. With the Pacers implied for a slate-high 125.25 points, getting exposure to a cheap Turner feels like a necessity tonight.
