Wednesday brings a 10-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Of the PGs priced above $7,000 FD — Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Kemba Walker, Eric Bledsoe, and Kyrie Irving — not one player has an Opponent Plus/Minus higher than +0.03. Because of the tough matchups, it’s probably wise to spend down on PG in cash games. That said, of the elite cohort Irving is the highest-rated FD PG in the Phan Model, while Walker and Curry stand out on DK at $7,200 and $8,500 with Bargain Ratings of 98 and 90 percent. Irving is the cheapest of the elite cohort on FD at $7,300, and he’s facing a Knicks team that ranks 27th defensively, allowing 107.2 points per 100 possessions. The Knicks have a good Opponent Plus/Minus against PGs, but they’ve allowed some big games this year, including a 43.3-point FD performance by Goran Dragic last night.
Value
Speaking of Goran Dragic: He’s currently the No. 1 PG by a mile in the Phan Model for FD, where his $7,000 salary comes with a position-high +8.61 Projected Plus/Minus, 14 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He is coming off an excellent game against the Knicks last night and has an even better matchup today against the Hawks, who have a +4.30 Opponent Plus/Minus. Atlanta still boasts the second-best defense in the league, allowing only 100.5 points per 100 possessions, but PG Dennis Schroder has been awful individually, posting a -2.99 Defensive Real Plus/Minus this season. Dragic is essentially the Heat’s only playmaker currently and is projected for 36.8 minutes and a sky-high 30.25 usage rate.
Leverage Play
Marcus Smart should get a bump in both playing time and ball-handling duties with Isaiah Thomas ruled out for the Celtics. Smart has been a volatile DFS asset lately, but that’s mostly because he’s been getting around 20-23 minutes per game. He’s projected for 33.7 minutes tonight, although he’s facing a revamped Orlando defense that currently ranks fourth in the NBA, allowing 101.2 points per 100 possessions. John Wall did drop 52 real points on the Magic last night, but that was a fluky game in general, and Smart isn’t the player Wall is. Still, it’s hard to ignore a guy getting close to 35 minutes priced at only $4,500 DK (where he’s a SG) and $4,700 FD.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has alternated good and bad games lately, but he’s had a brutal schedule in terms of opponents, back-to-backs, and travel. He had three days off before his last game against the Celtics, and he dropped 37 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, and three steals. He also had 10 turnovers but was still able to score 54.6 FD points, exceeding salary-based expectations by +6.69. Turnovers have been a problem for him, but they’re a byproduct of his massive workload: He’s projected for 35.1 minutes and a ridiculous 34.09 usage rate today. He has an enticing matchup against the Lakers, who have been the league’s third-worst defensive team, allowing 108.4 points per 100 possessions. He owns a +2.59 Opponent Plus/Minus and is always a worthy play in guaranteed prize pools.
Value
The SG on the other side of that game, Lou Williams, has been on an impressive heater over the last two games, dropping 54.7 and 45.9 FD points against the Jazz and Grizzlies — two of the top-six defenses in the NBA. He scored 38 and 40 real points in those two games and took 27 and 20 shots. He’s been using a ton of possessions lately, and he’s projected for 31.4 minutes and a 29.91 usage rate tonight. Houston has been poor defensively this year, ranking 25th in efficiency and allowing 106.9 points per 100 possessions. Even though this game has a massive 222.5-point Vegas total — in part because both teams have top-12 rates of play — Lakers-Rockets has only the third-highest total behind Clippers-Warriors and Nuggets-Nets. Lou won’t go underowned — he’s projected for 17-20 percent ownership on FD — but this is a great game to stack given the slate dynamics.
Leverage Play
Will Barton returned to the Nuggets’ lineup three games ago and has since posted 40.1, 34.0, and 32.9 FD points — Plus/Minus games of +19.41, +15.07, and +13.97. He’s been smashing value, and he’s currently the No. 2 SG in the Phan Model for FD, where his $6,000 salary — just $100 lower than Lou’s, for reference — comes with a +7.0 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He has an elite matchup tonight against the Nets, who play at the league’s second-fastest pace and have +3.56 Opponent Plus/Minus as well as the league’s second-worst defense, allowing a miserable 109.0 points per 100 possessions. Barton has massive upside in GPPs.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is currently the No. 2 player overall in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $9,600 salary comes with a massive +8.69 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s coming off a game against the rival Raptors, dropping 57.1 FD points thanks to 34 real points, eight rebounds, and seven assists. His playing time isn’t sustainable moving forward, but he’s played massive minutes lately, going over 42 in each of his last two games. He’s projected for 39.7 minutes and a 28.99 usage rate tonight against the Knicks, who own the fourth-worst defense in the league. The Knicks are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, and LeBron could be motivated to get up for a national TV game in Madison Square Garden. Per our NBA Trends tool, he’s posted a +3.04 DK Plus/Minus there over the last three years.
Value
Thabo Sefolosha is one of the least sexy plays in daily fantasy NBA, but he’s a fine one tonight. He’s only $4,100 DK/FD, and he’s projected to play 32.4 minutes with Kent Bazemore out. He’s coming off a game in which he scored 24.6 FD points — good for a +9.18 Plus/Minus — in 33.0 minutes against a top-10 Thunder defense. He’s currently the No. 4 DK SF and the No. 2 FD SF in the Phan Model, and he owns high Projected Plus/Minus marks of +5.35 and +6.34. The Heat are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and just allowed 114 points to the Knicks. Thabo likely won’t score even 10 points tonight, but he can accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways and needs only 15.86 FD points to hit value.
Leverage Play
Kevin Durant is currently the top option on DK, where his $9,700 salary comes with an +8.05 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’ll have to deal with an elite Clippers defense that ranks first in efficiency, allowing a stingy 99.5 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers have been particularly tough against SFs: Durant has an awful -5.34 Opponent Plus/Minus and will face Luc Mbah a Moute, who has been an excellent defender this year, posting a +2.18 Defensive Real Plus/Minus. That said, there may be no antidote to this Warriors offense, which Vegas has projected to score 114.25 points — the second-highest total tonight behind the Rockets’ 118.0.
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Love is coming off of a 28-14 game against the Raptors and will face on the second leg of a back-to-back a Knicks team that’s poor defensively, ranking 27th and allowing 107.2 points per 100 possessions. The Knicks specifically struggle down low: Love has a +1.02 FD Opponent Plus/Minus tonight. Further, Love has been excellent rebounding the ball recently, and the Knicks own the second-worst defensive rebound rate in the league, grabbing only 73.4 percent of the available boards. Love is projected for 35.5 minutes and a 26.43 usage rate, and he’s especially intriguing on FD, where his $7,900 salary comes with a +6.46 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Tobias Harris has taken a bit of a leap this year, averaging 17.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game on a career-high 49.4 field-goal percentage and 37.2 three-point percentage. He’s been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and averaging a +5.51 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He exceeded value by 14.95 points last game against the Bulls, scoring 37.4 FD points in 40.2 minutes of action. Despite his recent play, his salary hasn’t budged: He’s only $5,600 on FD, where he has a large +6.35 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
If you’re paying all the way down, look at Dallas’ Dwight Powell. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last six games and has been above 25 FD points in his last two. He played 31.9 and 28.3 minutes in those two contests and is projected to play a conservative 26.3 minutes with an 18.60 usage rate tonight off the bench. Because of his low $3,900 FD price, he leads all PFs with an +8.12 Projected Plus/Minus. Dallas plays at a slow pace, but the Kings average 3.5 more possessions, which should provide a slight boost to Powell’s value. Further, Sacramento has struggled defensively this season, ranking 23rd in efficiency and allowing 106.6 points per 100 possessions.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside has a brutal matchup against the Hawks — he owns a -3.40 Opponent Plus/Minus — and is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. That said, he has a position-high +9.27 Projected Plus/Minus, 14 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating with an $8,900 FD salary. (For reference, DeMarcus Cousins is $11,100 and has a lower ceiling projection.) He’s crushed value in four of his last five games, scoring at least 49 FD points while averaging over 35 minutes per game. He is projected for 37.9 minutes tonight and leads all centers in projected FD ceiling at 73.3 points. For whatever it’s worth, he posted an excellent game of 54 FD points earlier this year against the Hawks on 19 points and 25 rebounds.
Value
John Henson has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games, scoring at least 20 FD points in each contest. He’s priced up to $4,700 FD, but he’s still the No. 3 PF in the Phan Model for that site and owns a +4.60 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s projected to play only 25.8 minutes, but that’s surely enough to hit value against a Blazers team that remains the worst defensively in the league, allowing an embarrassing 109.6 points per 100 possessions. The Blazers are also a bottom-five rebounding team, and Henson has grabbed at least seven boards in four of his last five games. There’s risk here because of Henson’s low minute projection, but he has a slate-high +6.61 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
For some reason, DK hasn’t priced up Al Horford. He’s only $6,700 there and comes with a +3.85 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. In two of his last three games he’s had huge performances — 46.5 and 58.0 DK points — and he has a 48.8-point projected ceiling tonight. He has a tough matchup against a revamped Orlando defense, but that works for tournaments: Horford is projected for only five to eight percent projected ownership. He’s currently the No. 1 C in the Phan Model for DK and is projected for 33.5 minutes and a 22.06 usage rate. With Thomas out for the Celtics, they could very well run the offensive primarily through Horford tonight.
Good luck!
News Updates
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