Saturday brings an eight-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Stephen Curry has quietly hit salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric) in five of his last six games, scoring at least 34.1 FanDuel points in each. He’s been playing fairly heavy minutes lately — he’s been between 35 and 39 in each of the last four games — and is projected for 34.7 minutes and a 29.75 usage rate today. He gets a very nice matchup at home: He has a position-high +4.22 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD, where he comes with 11 Pro Trends and 26-30 percent projected ownership. Phoenix has the 19th-ranked defense on the year, though that undersells how friendly they are to opposing fantasy players: They easily rank first in pace. This game has a massive 229 Vegas total — 15 points higher than any other over/under in the slate — and Steph should have a large share of those points.
Value
Rajon Rondo was the chalky value play yesterday and is again today. He put up 51.2 FD points yesterday against the Cavaliers thanks to 15 real points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists, and three steals. His salary hasn’t budged: He’s still only $5,900 on FD, where he comes with a high +8.64 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He does have a tough matchup against the Mavericks, as shown by his poor -5.16 Opponent Plus/Minus, but that’s less worrisome given his price point. He’ll be chalky again but deservedly so: He’s projected for 21-25 percent ownership on FD.
Leverage Play
I doubt Andrew Harrison is good at basketball, but it’s hard to dismiss 27.8 and 33.4 FD points at a sub-$4,000 salary over the past two games. He has taken over primary ball-handling duties with Mike Conley out for the Grizzlies, and he’s projected for 31.1 minutes and a solid 20.57 usage rate against the Lakers. His price has increased on DraftKings quite a bit to $5,200, but he’s still only $4,300 on FD, where he comes with a slate-high +8.66 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and 99 percent Bargain Rating. In FD cash games, it’s definitely fine to roster Rondo and Harrison and pay up for studs elsewhere.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Klay Thompson‘s shooting woes to begin the season are definitely over: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last eight games, averaging 4.89 FD points in that span. He played huge minutes in his last game against the Rockets — 47.2 in double overtime — but he’s been in the high-3os for a while. Like Steph, he gets a dream matchup today against the Suns: He has a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.33. He should be chalky — he’s projected for 17-20 percent ownership — but he has a lot of safety in this very high-total game. He’s only $6,000 on FD, where he comes with a +5.1 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Choosing between Lakers guards Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkson was tough yesterday, and we have the same dilemma today. Both underperformed salary-based expectations last night against the Raptors, but Clarkson got 30.9 minutes (versus 25.4 for Lou) and is projected for nearly five more minutes tonight. Lou has the higher projected usage rate — 31.04 versus 25.97 percent — but Clarkson’s projected minutes make him preferable in cash games. Both have very high Projected Plus/Minus values on FD at +6.21 and +4.09, although Clarkson is projected to be owned in fewer lineups (13-16 versus five to eight percent).
Leverage Play
After dropping 47.6 FD points three games ago against the tough Jazz defense, Zach LaVine has scored 29.9 and 19.9 FD points in his last two games against the poor Knicks defense. One thing is constant, however: His incredibly-high minute totals. He’s played at least 39 minutes in each of his last four games and is projected for 40.5 today with a 22.02 usage rate. He’ll face a Charlotte team that ranks sixth on defense, allowing only 101.2 points per 100 possessions, but hasn’t been great against guards: LaVine has a solid +1.2 Opponent Plus/Minus. LaVine is risky, especially given the elite value around his price range, but he should have low ownership and is always a candidate to have a huge game at 40-plus minutes.
Small Forward
Stud
Should we talk about another Warrior? Considering that they are implied to score a slate-high 122.5 points against the fast-paced Suns, that’s warranted. Kevin Durant is projected for a slate-high 31-35 percent ownership on FD, where his $10,500 price tag comes with a +3.24 Projected Plus/Minus, 14 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. As expected, he has a very nice Opponent Plus/Minus (+2.79): His matchup against Suns wing PJ Tucker is one he can dominate. Durant has the highest ceiling projection at 60.7 FD points, and his floor is nearly six points higher than any other SF’s. If you can afford him — perhaps by seeking value at PG — Durant is a very safe cash-game option.
Value
Like Rondo, Jae Crowder is again the chalky value play. He exceeded salary-based expectations last night, scoring 24.1 FD points in 37.8 minutes of action. He’s hit value in his last five games and has played at least 31 minutes in his last three. He’s projected for 34.5 minutes and a 19.14 usage rate tonight, and he’ll get a nice matchup against a 76ers team that currently ranks 22nd on defense, allowing 106.5 points per 100 possessions. He’s second among all SFs in Projected Plus/Minus (+4.97) on FD, where he has seven Pro Trends, a 97 percent Bargain Rating, and a +2.25 Opponent Plus/Minus. The Celtics are currently implied for 108.75 points — the third-highest mark in the main slate.
Leverage Play
Jimmy Butler leads all SFs in Projected Plus/Minus for both DK (+4.55) and FD (+5.51). He is the No. 2 DK SF in the Phan Model, and that’s despite having a low -4.08 Opponent Plus/Minus. Butler has a high projected ceiling of 56.6 points, and he’s projected for lower ownership than Durant. He crushed value in a tough matchup last night, scoring 53.6 FD points against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he’s played 40-plus minutes in his last two games. He’s projected for 39.7 minutes and a 27.74 usage rate tonight. He’ll have to deal with the slow pace of the Mavericks, but he is a nice pivot down from Durant.
Power Forward
Stud
Draymond Green is easily the highest-priced option at the position at $8,000 FD and in a great spot against the Suns, who have allowed 104.8 points per 100 possessions on the season and play at the league’s fastest pace. Draymond exploded for 53.5 FD points in 46.9 minutes last game against the Rockets. That was a double-overtime affair, but he also played 39.2 minutes in the game prior versus the Hawks and is projected for 33.8 minutes tonight. He has a nice +1.11 Opponent Plus/Minus and is projected to outscore his salary-based expectations by 2.92 points.
Value
Taj Gibson dropped 47.25 FD points last night against the tough Cavaliers frontcourt thanks to 23 real points, 11 rebounds, and five assists. He played nearly 40 minutes and is projected for 32.5 minutes and an 18.55 usage rate tonight. The matchup against the Mavericks is tough, but primarily because of their league-low pace. The Bulls are projected to score 96.5 points — the slate’s second-lowest mark, behind only their opponent’s — but big men typically do better in low-implied games because of increased rebounding opportunities. Gibson is projected for only five to eight percent ownership on DK, where his nice $5,500 salary comes with a Projected Plus/Minus of +3.75 and seven Pro Trends.
Leverage Play
Gorgui Dieng is coming off an absolutely awful game in which he scored only 6.0 FD points in 17.8 minutes of action against the Knicks. It was the second straight game of not hitting salary-based expectations after putting up consistent performances for a couple weeks. He’s projected for 33.1 minutes tonight and has a good chance to hit value against a Charlotte team that is average against PFs. He’s the No. 4 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a +3.90 Projected Plus/Minus, 17-20 percent projected ownership, and six Pro Trends.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside gets the Trail Blazers, who are easily the worst defensive team in the league, allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions. Whiteside has struggled a bit lately, missing value in four of his last six games, but it’s hard to see him failing in this matchup: He has a position-high +5.63 Opponent Plus/Minus, and Portland ranks 25th in rebound rate. He’s easily the highest-rated center in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $8,600 salary comes with a +5.58 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He should be chalky.
Value
Rudy Gobert has been good lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games with a +4.24 DK Plus/Minus. He’s currently the highest-rated option in the Phan Model for DK, where his $6,300 salary comes with a position-high +4.95 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and 93 percent Bargain Rating. He has a good Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.63 today, as Denver ranks 24th defensively, allowing 106.8 points per 100 possessions. Denver has a below-average offense with Emmanuel Mudiay running the point, and Gobert could have a lot of blocking and rebounding upside.
Leverage Play
Al Horford had his best game of the season last night, dropping 58.0 DK points in 35.5 minutes, thanks to 26 real points, eight rebounds, three assists, two steals, and six blocks. Today he’s only $6,500 on DK, where he has a +4.05 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He’s facing the 76ers, who rank 22nd defensively, allowing 106.5 points per 100 possessions. Further, Joel Embiid is scheduled to rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, so the 76ers should be even worse defensively than usual. Horford is a nice value option with high upside: He has a projected ceiling of 47.9 DK points.
Good luck!
News Updates
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