Today brings a large 11-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook finally put up a dud in his last game, scoring just 31.5 FanDuel points in 26.7 minutes at a $11,700 last game against the Heat. Today, he’ll face the Toronto Raptors, who have a top-seven defense but have actually uncharacteristically struggled a bit versus opposing PGs this season: They’ve allowed 1.4 DraftKings points above salary-based expectations on the year to the position (per our Plus/Minus metric). Perhaps most notably, John Wall hung a 60.75-point DK game against them exactly a week ago. This game boasts a mediocre 202-point total and the Thunder, as 3.5-point favorites, are currently implied for 102.75 points. For what it’s worth, in the two games this season with a total under 209 points, Russ missed salary-based expectations both times. He should never be completely faded in tournaments — he has the slate’s highest-projected ceiling at 72.1 FD points — but this might be a tournament-only spot for Russ.
Speaking of Wall: he struggled to hit value last game in what looked to be an amazing spot against the terrible fast-paced Rockets. On the season, he’s still scoring and putting up assists — he’s averaging a career-high 21.8 points and solid 9.6 assists per game — but his turnover numbers have been miserable: He’s averaging a career-high 5.4 turnovers per game, and he has a massive turnover rate of 21.3 percent. Fortunately, things could be a bit easier tonight against a Boston team that currently ranks 29th in defense, allowing 110.2 points per 100 possessions. He’ll match up against the smaller Isaiah Thomas, who has posted a poor -1.9 Defensive Real Plus/Minus over the past year, although the Celtics will likely throw Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley at him as well. Still, this is a nice bounceback spot for Wall, who is the fourth-highest rated DK PG in the Phan Player Model, holding 12 Pro Trends.
Value
With Deron Williams already ruled out again tonight for the Mavs’ game against the Warriors, it looks like we can go back to the JJ Barea well yet again. He has been playing huge minutes this year and has exceeded salary-based expectations in every game so far. His price on FD is up ($5,700) but only slightly, and he’s projected to play 34.4 minutes and use possessions at a 26.35 percent clip tonight. This is a tough spot, however: After being the league’s worst defense a week ago, the Warriors are now up to 19th in defensive efficiency and they’ve held opposing PGs to 1.1 points below salary-based expectations on the year. However, if you’re looking for a silver lining, that’s a pretty new trend: The place to attack the Warriors has historically been at the PG spot and Stephen Curry has allowed opponents to score a whopping 1.2 fantasy points per minute in the past year. Barea boasts the highest Projected Plus/Minus among FD PGs at +6.31.
Leverage Play
The daily fantasy hoops community collectively salivated this offseason thinking about all the Dennis Schroder nights we were going to get with Jeff Teague now with the Pacers. And for a while, Dennis disappointed us: He couldn’t get above 31 FD points in any of his first five games. However, things might be clicking for Schroder now, as he’s put up 35.4 and 34.6 points in his last two games — the last of which came against the Cavaliers. Schroder’s minutes have held steady this year, and he’s projected for 31.8 minutes and a 24.23 usage rate today against the Chicago Bulls, who have been kind to opposing PGs this year, allowing 1.7 DK points above salary-based expectations. This is a back-to-back, but the Hawks are still implied to score a solid 103.75 points tonight in what could be a sneaky game for contrarian plays.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden is the second-most expensive player in the slate behind Westbrook at $11,500 DK and $11,100 FD and has a brutal matchup on the road against a top-10 San Antonio defense and Kawhi Leonard — and he’s still the second-highest rated SG in FD Phan Model, with 15 Pro Trends and a position-high +7.11 Plus/Minus. That’s just how dominant ‘Point Harden’ has been this year. He’s played all four of his last games on the road and has not been below 53.7 FD points in any of those. Against the Cavs, he put up 72.9 points in 38.2 minutes. The dude is ridiculous: He’s the only player at any position to average double-digit assists per game and he’s way up at 12.7. On top of that, he’s third in the league in scoring at 31.6 points per game. Because of the price and matchup, it’s certainly fine to go elsewhere in cash games, but Harden’s 34.02 projected usage rate and 70.3 FD ceiling is a scary thing to fade in tourneys.
DeMar DeRozan finally came back down to earth last game, scoring ‘only’ 31.3 FD points in 37.8 minutes of action against the Kings. He’s now had three days off and will face a Thunder team that currently ranks third in defense on the season and has held SGs to 1.8 DK points below salary-based expectations this year. But like Harden, DeRozan still has a high projected floor of 24.3 FD points because of sheer volume and involvement in the offense: He’s projected for 37.6 minutes and a 34.46 usage rate tonight — the highest rate among SGs. However, note that he’ll be a bit chalky because of his discount on Harden. DeRozan has a position-high projected FantasyLabs ownership of nine to 12 percent on FD.
Value
DeRozan and Harden lead the SG spot in Projected Plus/Minus on DK and FD, respectively. However, the highest-rated SG in the FD Phan Model currently is Detroit’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who sports a low $4,400 salary and has a solid +4.32 Projected Plus/Minus. He has a really nice matchup against a Phoenix team that ranks in the bottom 10 in defense, is playing on the second leg of a tough back-to-back, and has been the worst team in the NBA versus SGs this year. Per our Trends tool, Phoenix has allowed opposing SGs to score 4.8 DK points above salary-based expectations. The Wizards are the second-worst team but it’s not particularly close. KCP really struggled last game, scoring only 2.2 FD points on 0-6 shooting, but this is a perfect bounceback spot for him, and he should go under-owned due to his poor play last game.
Leverage Play
As mentioned on our first NBA Flex podcast, Klay Thompson‘s struggles this year are interesting in that they haven’t been due to a lack of playing time or a lack of usage: They’ve been due to a lack of making shots. And considering Klay is a top-three shooter in the league, that seems like something that should regress to the mean. That started last game, in which he scored 35.3 FD points in 38 minutes on 11-20 shooting and went 2-7 from the 3-point line. That’s a step in the right direction, although there’s still a ton of regression coming for his 3-point shooting specifically. Tonight he’ll face a Dallas team that is incredibly thin on the wing with DWill out. They’re potentially starting Dorian Finney-Smith, who I believe is an actual NBA basketball player. Klay is projected for five to eight percent ownership on FanDuel, and this could be the start of an upswing for him. Get him at low ownership in tourneys while you can.
Small Forward
Stud
The concern with Kevin Durant last game was minutes, as the Warriors were massive 17-point favorites over the poor New Orleans Pelicans. Interestingly, Durant missed value on FD — he scored 33.1 points on 22 real points — but it wasn’t because of minutes, as he got his usual allotment of 36.9. Durant seems to have very steady playing time regardless of the game and is projected for 35.8 minutes and a 29.82 usage rate tonight against an older Dallas team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. The dude mentioned above, Dorian, is a 6’8″ undrafted rookie and will have the task of defending Durant, who is at least 7’0″ and an alien. The Warriors are implied for a slate-high 113.25 points and this could be an absolutely massive game for Durant as he shows Harrison Barnes what he’s missing back in the Bay tonight.
Value
Speaking of Barnes, he actually boasts the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FD at +6.31. He’s projected for a slate-high nine to 12 percent ownership and holds a 99 percent Bargain Rating at just $5,700. That’s fine. I’m not touching him in cash given how well the Warriors know Barnes.
Another guy with a high Projected Plus/Minus I do like tonight is Carmelo Anthony, who has a +5.61 Proj Plus/Minus on FD and has now put up back-to-back 40-point FD outings. He’ll face a Brooklyn team that has really struggled with SFs this year, allowing 2.8 points above salary-based expectations on DK for the year. The Knicks actually boast the second-highest implied team total at 111 points, and Melo is the highest-rated FD SF in the Phan Model. He’s in play in all contest formats.
Leverage Play
Because of price points, Kawhi Leonard is the odd man out here. Durant ($9,600) obviously has the highest ceiling and an amazing matchup, and Melo ($7,500) has perhaps the best matchup of SFs tonight. Kawhi’s price tag ($8,800) is right in the middle and pretty awkward: People will want to slide up or down depending on roster construction. That makes Kawhi very intriguing in tournaments, where he’s projected to be owned at five to eight percent on FD despite his high 58.4-point projected ceiling. And it’s not like this isn’t a great spot as well: The Spurs have a high 109.25-point implied total and face a Rockets team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. Per our Matchups tool, he’ll face Trevor Ariza, who hasn’t been a good defender in quite a while despite his reputation: He’s allowed opposing SFs to score 4.4 points above salary-based expectations on DK over the past year.
Power Forward
Studs
There are four PFs above $7,000 on FD — Blake Griffin, Draymond Green, Paul Millsap, and LaMarcus Aldridge — and, unlike the SF studs, they are all facing teams that have held PFs below salary-based expectations on the year. The best of the matchups seems likely to be Blake vs. the Blazers, who are playing on a back-to-back tonight and rank 23rd on defense this season. With Al-Farouq Aminu ruled out after injuring his calf last night, Blake is projected to start opposite wing Moe Harkless, who has allowed players to score 1.0 fantasy points per minute in the past year against him. That’s above league-average, even if it is below Blake’s personal mark of 1.12 FP per minute. Griffin has the slate’s highest-projected ceiling on FD at 53.3 points and is expected to play above 30 minutes this game and use possessions at a 28.18 percent rate.
Value
The Knicks seemed to remember that Kristaps Porzingis is a good player in the past two games, as they finally gave him 33.4 and 33.0 minutes. He responded with 41.1 and 34.5 FD points at a nice $6,400 salary. Tonight he is projected for 32.4 minutes and a 23.57 usage rate, and he has an amazing matchup against the Nets, who have allowed PFs to score 1.1 points above salary-based expectations on DK this year. Kristaps has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+4.96), the most Pro Trends (11), and the highest PF rating in the Phan Model. He’s projected for five to eight percent ownership and is a nice option in all contest formats given the matchups for the studs today.
Leverage Play
The third-highest rated PF in the DK Phan Model currently is Marvin Williams, who played Monday after battling a viral infection and now should see extended run against Utah with Roy Hibbert already ruled out for Charlotte. Marvin hasn’t hit value in either of his last two games, but that’s been because of his abbreviated minutes due to his illness: He played only 18.6 in his last game. Tonight he is projected for 29.6 minutes — a number that could get bumped up a bit if the Hornets decide to combat the Jazz by going smaller — and an 18.3 usage rate. This is a tough matchup for sure against the Jazz frontcourt, but Marvin can stretch defenses and score fantasy points in a variety of ways. At $4,500 on FD, he’s worth a flyer in tournaments.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond currently leads the NBA with 14.3 rebounds per game and already has three 20-rebound games in his seven starts this year. That’s just silly. Tonight he’ll face a Phoenix team that ranks second in pace at 104.2 possessions per game and owns a bottom-10 defense. The Suns played last night and didn’t have starting center Tyson Chandler, who was out for undisclosed personal reasons. Alex Len got the start but played only 16.6 minutes: The Suns rotated guys, including rookie Marquese Chriss, who struggled to rebound the basketball in college at Washington. In fact, he posted the worst defensive rebounding rate among all PFs drafted in the first round over the past 30 years (other than Thaddeus Young, who played SF in college). What I’m trying to say is this: Drummond could have another 20-rebound night very easily.
Values
The chalky value play tonight will be Philly’s Jahlil Okafor, who is set to get the start for a resting Joel Embiid. Okafor is currently the highest-rated center in the DK Phan Model — he actually holds dual PF/C eligibility there — and he boasts a position-high +3.75 Projected Plus/Minus. However, this might not be the slam dunk play you think it is: In Embiid’s first game out this season, Okafor played only 24.2 minutes, scored 21.5 DK points, and missed value by 0.7 points. Right now he is projected for 24.6 minutes and a 28.37 usage rate against the Pacers. That isn’t to say Jah isn’t in play, as his $4,800 DK and $5,100 FD price tags are certainly enticing. However, just note that Okafor has a low 6.5-point projected floor on FD. There’s underappreciated risk here.
Leverage Play
Because of Okafor’s low price tag and Drummond’s nice matchup tonight, the best leverage play for tournaments might be the highest-priced center in Karl-Anthony Towns, who is $8,500 DK and $8,700 FD. He’s playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and has still had only one blowup game — a matchup against the Nuggets last week in which he put up 55.8 FD points in 37.5 minutes. Tonight he’ll face a Magic team that currently ranks 25th on defense and should start Nikola Vucevic, who has allowed opposing centers to score 4.5 points over salary-based expectations in the past year on DK. KAT comes with just two to four percent projected ownership and could very well win someone a GPP if he has a big game at such low ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
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