Tonight’s four-game main slate begins at 7:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook already faced the Lakers this season; that meeting culminated in 33 points, 16 assists, 11 rebounds, and seven turnovers — 68.4 FanDuel points. After being priced at a season-high $13,000 in their first meeting, Westbrook’s salary has decreased to $11,800 on FanDuel for today’s game. The Thunder and Lakers rank fifth and sixth in pace, respectively, and their Vegas total is currently a slate-best 220. Over the past four games, the Lakers’ defensive rating has spiked to 116.6, and Westbrook leads the league in field goal attempts (23.8), points in the paint (11.4), and usage rate (39.9 percent). On a four-game slate, Westbrook’s Projected Plus/Minus is higher than the combined Projected Plus/Minus values of the next three highest-rated point guards in the Phan Model. I’m going back to the well and locking in those lyrics, Wayne Brady.
Values
In the 53 minutes Jrue Holiday has played this season, the Pelicans have recorded a 114.5 offensive rating. His minutes are being monitored, but not due to health concerns; coach Alvin Gentry would prefer to ease Holiday back into game shape. In his first two games, Holiday averaged 39.0 DraftKings points and played the entire overtime on the second night of a back-to-back set. He may not creep back up to 30 minutes after two days off, but he leads all point guards with a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.0 on DraftKings, and he recorded a 33.6 percent usage rate in the first two games, easily eclipsing his career average in that department.
As long as he plays tonight, Rajon Rondo could be the next player to benefit from the Nuggets’ point guard defense. To date, point guards have averaged a +3.28 Plus/Minus on 66.7 percent Consistency on FanDuel this season against the Nuggets. Dwyane Wade will likely return to the lineup after resting the previous game, muting expectations for Rondo. However, only one point guard priced higher than $4,100 has failed to exceed salary-based expectations against the Nuggets this season. Rondo fares better as a tournament play due to a lingering sprained ankle.
Leverage Play
Damian Lillard had made 23.1 percent of his 3-point attempts over the past four games, which is roughly his projected ownership in FanDuel GPPs. He hasn’t performed well enough to use in cash games, and if you exclude his two highest-scoring games against the Nuggets this season, he’s averaged 36.98 FanDuel points. On the whole, point guards have struggled against the Knicks this season, posting a -2.29 Plus/Minus on FanDuel on 36 percent Consistency, but the high-priced players have exceeded salary-based expectations regularly. In the past seven games without Al-Farouq Aminu, Lillard has averaged a -8.0 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a -5.8 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. With Westbrook as the obvious choice on FanDuel, Lillard becomes the contrarian option at point guard on a four-game slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
C.J. McCollum has outperformed Lillard over the past four games, but the returns have been marginal. That shouldn’t matter as much against the Knicks, whose 107.9 defensive rating ranks 27th in the league. Shooting guards against the Knicks this season have averaged a +2.18 Plus/Minus on 58.6 percent Consistency on FanDuel and a +3.24 Plus/Minus on 56.7 percent Consistency on DraftKings.
Value
Victor Oladipo is projected to be the highest-owned shooting guard on FanDuel, where he leads that group with a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.8. His first game against the Lakers this season wasn’t spectacular, but he’s responded with three straight games of at least five assists and five rebounds. Semaj Christon (concussion) won’t play for the second straight contest, and Oladipo hasn’t played fewer than 36 minutes over the past three games as the lone ball-handler on the second unit. Both the Thunder and Lakers are ranked inside the top-six in pace, and their slate-best Over/Under of 221 bumps Oladipo ahead of McCollum on FanDuel because of the $1,600 savings.
Leverage Play
Dwyane Wade has been off for two whole days, and Will Barton may play only 20 minutes in the second game since returning from a sprained left ankle. The Bulls are currently implied to score 105 points — the third-lowest mark on the slate — but they’ll have two days off after tonight, which could lead to extended minutes for Wade and company, especially if Rondo rests. Wade is the point guard of the second unit, and point guards have done quite well against the Nuggets this season.
Small Forward
Studs
I give Jimmy Butler a pass for his shooting struggles last season. He dealt with a sore heel for the first half of 2015-16, a sprained right ankle in January, and then suffered a strained left knee in February against the Nuggets, today’s opponent. Referencing his performance against them last year would lead us to believe he’s a straight fade, but if you check his stats from the year prior (47.45 FanDuel points per game), you’d be less inclined to shun him. As mentioned earlier, Wade is expected to play, but Butler has topped 40 FanDuel points in six of the past eight games while averaging 37.4 minutes per game due to the lack of depth on the wing.
The Trail Blazers are currently ranked last in defensive rating (108.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) — three spots below the Knicks. Carmelo Anthony was stymied against the Wizards two games ago, but that was the fifth game in seven nights for the Knicks, and he bounced back with 48.75 FanDuel points against the best defense in the league in Sunday’s noon tilt. The Blazers-Knicks’ 216 Over/Under is much more favorable than the Bulls-Nuggets’ 207.5, making Anthony a high priority in the small forward market. Additionally, Butler averages 1.1 DraftKings points per minute when Wade plays vs. Anthony’s 1.2 DraftKings points per minute when Joakim Noah doesn’t.
Value
Kent Bazemore’s playing time has changed with Thabo Sefolosha out of the lineup recently, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight straight games on FanDuel, where he costs $4,900. The Pelicans have allowed opposing small forwards to average a +2.93 Plus/Minus on FanDuel this season, and Bazemore leads all small forwards with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.67.
Leverage Play
Danilo Gallinari costs $100 more than Wilson Chandler on FanDuel and $200 more on DraftKings. Over the past three games, Gallinari has made 12-of-40 shots, and he’ll likely be guarded by Butler. It’s actually a bad spot for Gallinari, especially with a Vegas implied team total of 102.5. However, on small slates, you need to take risks in tournaments. Clearly, Butler and Anthony are in the top tier at small forward. After that, is gets murky quickly. Gallinari at least provides a playing-time floor, averaging 36.0 minutes per game this season — good for 12th in the NBA.
Power Forward
Stud
Nearly a year ago, Anthony Davis recorded 43 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, four steals, and three blocks against the Hawks. The meeting prior, he recorded 56.25 DraftKings points. Now that Holiday has returned, Davis has totaled 138.75 DraftKings points over the past two games while converting over 60 percent of his shots with Holiday on the court. When Holiday and Davis shared the court last season, Davis improved his field goal accuracy by seven percent. Davis is currently averaging 1.5 DraftKings points per minute this season, and with Terrence Jones off the court, that mark increases to 1.6. Davis’ Bargain Rating of 95 percent makes him much more palatable on DraftKings, where Westbrook has been priced up to $12,500.
Value
The Trail Blazers have been benevolent to power forwards this season, and even more so with Aminu sidelined. Dirk Nowitzki was the only power forward priced above $5,200 on FanDuel who failed to exceed salary-based expectations against the Trail Blazers this season, and that was because he didn’t play the second half.
Kristaps Porzingis is the third-most expensive power forward on FanDuel and DraftKings. When Noah has been off the court this season, Porzingis’ rebound percentage differential has improved by 1.8 percent, and he was able to grab 11 rebounds in Sunday’s game without Noah. In the game coach Jeff Hornacek benched Noah the entire second half, Porzingis matched his season-high of 11 rebounds. The Trail Blazers are last in rebound percentage this season, and Porzingis should play increased minutes at center when Noah is eventually ruled out.
Leverage Plays
Paul Millsap costs $400 more than Porzingis on FanDuel and DraftKings. They’re easily paired on FanDuel, but Millsap is the fifth-most expensive player in the DraftKings player pool. He played at least 38 minutes in two of the past three games without Sefolosha, who is probable to play with a sprained right knee. Coach Mike Budenholzer was able to increase Millsap’s minutes by playing him down at the small forward spot for a couple of minutes. I suspect the minutes will subside to normal levels, but if you’re looking to differentiate at power forward, Millsap is in that sweet spot between Davis and Porzingis.
D’Angelo Russell is questionable to play with a sore left knee. In the game he sat earlier this season, Julius Randle led the Lakers with seven assists. I like Randle whether Russell plays or not because Russell’s mobility appeared limited in the last game and the team may actually rest him against Westbrook. In his first meeting against the Thunder, Randle missed a double-double by one rebound and recorded 39.3 FanDuel points. He was kneed during Monday’s practice, which may cause concern, and his salary has caught up to his average production.
Center
Stud
The Pelicans presently rank last in offensive rebound percentage and 28th in rebound percentage, and Dwight Howard has pulled down 18 rebounds in consecutive games while averaging 13.3 per game — the third-highest average in the NBA. There are currently better values at center, but if you opt for Howard, you’ll likely have to forgo Westbrook or Davis. It makes financial sense to spend down at center on this four-game slate. Howard has averaged a -5.89 Plus/Minus in seven games against the Pelicans.
Values
Joakim Noah (illness) is doubtful to play, and that means Kyle O’Quinn will likely start with Willy Hernangomez backing him up. In the five games O’Quinn has played at least 14 minutes this season, he’s averaged 17.72 FanDuel points. The Trail Blazers are currently ranked last in rebound percentage (46.8 percent), and if O’Quinn refrains from committing early and dumb fouls, 20 minutes is attainable. Hernangomez works as a punt play on DraftKings, where he costs $300 less than O’Quinn. Because of the aforementioned foul troubles, Hernangomez was able to play 29 minutes in the previous game and recorded two fewer DraftKings points than O’Quinn did in 20 minutes.
Leverage Plays
I think I’ve mentioned this a few times already, but the Lakers are allowing opponents to shoot a league-high 47.5 percent from the field and 66.2 percent within five feet of the rim. They lack any semblance of interior defense: At halftime of their previous game, Taj Gibson had 11 points and four rebounds and Robin Lopez had 10 points and seven rebounds. The Thunder lead the league with 48.6 points per game in the paint, and the Lakers have yielded a league-high 49.9 points per game in the paint. The Lakers have stopped playing Timofey Mozgov in fourth quarters, relying on Larry Nance and Randle in crunch time to handle opposing centers, who have averaged a league-high +1.83 Plus/Minus against the Lakers this season.
In seven games against the Lakers, Steven Adams has averaged a +11.58 Plus/Minus on FanDuel while exceeding salary-based expectations every time. I’ll include Enes Kanter in the mix as well. He’s second on the team with 8.3 points in the paint per game, and he provided a modest 22.5 FanDuel points in 22 minutes in his first game against the Lakers this season. Adams presents more risk, as he’s playing through an injured right thumb, but his salary of $4,900 sways him closer to a value play.
News Updates
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