The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Joe Ryan ($10,400) Minnesota Twins (-199) vs. Chicago White Sox
The terrible offense of the White Sox continues to check in with absurdly low Vegas totals, with today’s mark at just 2.8 runs. While that doesn’t mean pitchers against them can’t disappoint — like Pablo Lopez yesterday — it’s still a fairly strong sign for opposing arms.
This makes Ryan the obvious top choice on Wednesday. He leads the next closest pitcher in median projection by at least three points in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projection sets. It’s not just about the matchup either. The 27-year-old Ryan has improved every season in the majors, and he comes into Wednesday with a 3.57 ERA and 32% strikeout rate. His ERA could be a lot better too, since his xERA and SIERA are both in the low twos.
Ryan will be heavily owned since he stands out so much but probably not prohibitively so. His salary makes him hard to pair with other top pitchers and/or expensive bats, which will keep a good chunk of lineups off him. He’s a must for cash games, but I’m willing to eat the chalk in GPPs as well.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Spencer Arrighetti ($6,500) Houston Astros (-104) at Chicago Cubs
One of the factors keeping Ryan’s ownership from rising to outlandish levels is the lack of clear value on the slate. There’s major flaws for every pitcher below around $8,300 in DraftKings salary, so finding a partner for the five-figure salary on Ryan is fairly difficult.
Arrighetti, like the other cheap arms today, requires a leap of faith. Through two MLB starts, the rookie has an ERA of 11.57 — which is not great, to put it mildly. In his defense, though, his xERA is a solid 3.94, so there’s a chance he’s been mostly unlucky. That assertion is backed up by a .458 BABIP against, with the league average around .300.
He also faced the Braves in one of his two starts. With Atlanta being the best offense in baseball, things should only go up from here. On the bright side, his 14.5% swinging strike rate maps to a strikeout rate around 30%, so there’s certainly some upside there.
Arrighetti is probably too risky for cash games, but given his low price and low ownership projection, he’s worth a swing in GPPs.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Reynaldo Lopez ($9,200) Atlanta Braves (-227) vs. Miami Marlins
Lopez is both hard to pair with Ryan for salary reasons, and he is not a great value based on his projections. Those factors should conspire to keep his ownership reasonable — but he has big upside. We just saw these Marlins get shut out over nine innings by his teammate Max Fried — and Lopez has better numbers coming in.
Through 18 innings this season, Lopez has allowed just one run while striking out more than a quarter of the batters he’s faced. Those are great numbers, especially considering he’s taking on a Marlins team that ranks 29th in wRC+ on the season.
While Miami isn’t an especially high strikeout team, Lopez provides upside because of his potential to last deep into the game. He’s coming off back-to-back 25+ DraftKings point performances against the Mets and Astros, both of which saw him last six innings. If he stretches to seven or more tonight, he could break the slate.
Obviously his 0.50 ERA isn’t sustainable over the long haul, but against a terrible Marlins lineup? Lopez might just improve on that number. He’s a great pivot from Ryan or a pairing partner if you can make the salary work.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
It’s getting increasingly difficult to trust the Padres given that they’ve scored just seven runs in the first two games of their series against the Rockies at Coors Field. On the other hand, they’re far too cheap considering their 6.3-run implied total at Coors.
They’re projecting extremely well today, with a reasonable cost and moderate ownership largely thanks to the recency bias of the last two days. As a team, they’re still a top-ten offense in baseball overall.
The matchup is somewhat questionable here as Colorado is yet to name a starter. That means a likely bullpen game — and the Rockies bullpen has a 4.88 ERA. In theory they should be even worse when stretched over nine innings, as opposed to the typical four or so.
Let’s give the Padres one last chance for a monster game at Coors Field.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
JP Crawford SS ($3,800) Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (Jon Gray)
Crawford paid off for us yesterday to the tune of nine DraftKings points. The thesis was rostering the left-handed Crawford against a Rangers pitcher who struggled against lefties, a fact discovered with PlateIQ. Just for fun, I checked out the numbers on today’s starter, Jon Gray ($8,300):
That’s a lot of red against lefties, both this season and last. I’ll take Crawford again at his reasonable price point. Catcher Cal Raleigh ($4,000) — who is a switch-hitter — is a solid play for similar reasons. Raleigh has put up at least 19 DraftKings points in his last five games played.
Evan Carter OF ($4,400) Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners (Bryce Miller)
One of the reasons I was checking out the Rangers-Mariners game is the excellent hitting conditions. Outside of the game at Coors Field, it features the best combination of Park Factor and Weather Rating for bats.
This should help the powerful Carter. Three of his 15 hits this season have left the park despite playing in largely worse conditions than he has tonight. His low average and high flyball rate make him more of a ceiling play than a floor option, but he has plenty of upside batting cleanup in the Rangers lineup.
