This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Week 8 shmoney time!
New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.
Quarterback (Cash)
- Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($7,800 DK, $8,700 FD) vs. SF
Russell Wilson has hit value in every game this season and has the top floor, median, and Projected Plus/Minus among QBs in our NFL Player Models.
Running Back (Cash)
- Myles Gaskin, Dolphins ($5,200 DK, $5,700 FD) vs. LAR
- Giovani Bernard, Bengals ($5,800 DK, $5,900 FD) vs. CLE
- Jamaal Williams, Packers ($6,100 DK, $5,800 FD) vs. MIN
- Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($6,600 DK, $7,300 FD) at DET
- Kareem Hunt, Browns ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD) vs. LV
Kareem Hunt leads all RBs in projected Plus/Minus and should have his way with a Raiders defense ranked 29th in rushing DVOA and 21st in DVOA on passes to running backs.
Jamaal Williams played 55 of 60 offensive snaps last week and will get another start in place of Aaron Jones, this one coming against a Vikings defense ranked 20th in run-defense DVOA. Williams ranks No. 1 in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and No. 2 on DraftKings.
Jonathan Taylor is averaging 18.2 touches per game since Marlon Mack went down in Week 1 and faces a Lions defense ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA. Taylor clocks in with top-five floor, median and ceiling projections among RBs.
Giovani Bernard was in on 57 of 75 snaps last week and saw 18 touches, including six in the red zone. Bernard is still too cheap at $5,800 on FanDuel, where he ranks No. 3 of all RBs in Projected Plus/Minus,
Myles Gaskin is averaging 20.8 touches over his past four games and is likely to be even more heavily leaned upon in Tua Tagovailoa‘s first start against a Rams defense that ranks 11th in passing DVOA but 18th against the run. Gaskin is top three among RBs in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]
Wide Receiver (Cash)
- Denzel Mims, Jets ($3,200 DK, $4,900 FD) at KC
- Keenan Allen, Chargers ($6,200 DK, $7,400 FD) at DEN
- Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($6,700 DK, $8,100 FD) vs. NYJ
- Davante Adams, Packers ($8,800 DK, $9,100 FD) vs. MIN
Denzel Mims leads all WRs in Projected Plus/Minus, as the rookie is slated to have a full-time role with Jamison Crowder (groin) and Breshad Perriman (concussion) out.
Keenan Allen 10.7 targets and 7.3 catches this season — and that includes a game which he left after just two targets due to back spasms.
Tyreek Hill has 78-plus yards and/or a TD in six of seven games. Among WRs priced above $3,500 on DraftKings, Hill is second behind Allen in Projected Plus/Minus.
Davante Adams has the top floor projection of any WR on the slate as he goes a banged up Vikings secondary that he demolished for 14/156/2 on 17 targets in Week 1.
Tight End (Cash)
- Harrison Bryant, Browns ($3,200 DK, $5,000 FD) vs. LV
- George Kittle, 49ers ($7,000 DK, $7,700 FD) at SEA
Harrison Bryant played 40-of-52 snaps and went 4/52/2 on 5 targets last week against the Bengals and will get another start with Austin Hooper (appendix) still out. Bryant is the cheapest TE with a top-five Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
George Kittle posted a quiet 5/55/0 line against Bill Belichick defense in a game the offense never really needed him, but he should be back to being heavily used at Seattle, especially with WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out. Kittle leads all TEs in floor, median, ceiling and Projected Plus/Minus in our models.
Defense/Special Teams (Cash)
- Buffalo Bills ($3,300 DK, $4,500 FD) vs. NE
- New Orleans Saints ($3,400 DK, $3,600 FD) at CHI
Bills DST has the top floor projection and second-highest median projection on the slate as Buffalo takes on a struggling Patriots offense that has allowed a slate-high +2.0 Opponent Plus/Minus to DSTs this season.
Saints DST ranks No. 1 in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel against a Bears offense that is averaging just 16.0 points per game at home this season and will be without starting center Cody Whitehair (calf).
Roster Build (Cash)
On DraftKings, you can fit Wilson, Hunt, Taylor, Williams, Gaskin, Hill, Allen and Bills DST if you punt with Mims at WR3 and Bryant at TE.
On FanDuel, you can fit Wilson, Williams, Bernard, Gaskin, Adams, Allen, Kittle, and Saints DST if you punt WR3 with Mims.
Tournament Strategy
Leverage Plus/Minus: Rank in projected ceiling minus rank in projected ownership. The goal in tournaments is to roster the highest scorers at each position rather than simply optimize for value, and Leverage Plus/Minus identifies the players with a higher probability of posting a high score than of being in other entrants’ lineups.
Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions (GPP)
Zach Pascal could eat against a Lions defense allowing the most schedule-adjusted yards per game in the league to opposing No. 2 wide receivers (86.4).
Colts DST is second on the slate in fantasy points per game and should benefit from coming off the bye — road favorites are 62-23-3 off a bye since 2003, per Bet Labs — against a Lions offense that came a Todd Gurley TD from scoring only 16 points against the Falcons last week.
With his role continuing to grow and a potential trailing game script, DeAndre Swift could be in for a big game against a Colts pass defense that ranks above average in DVOA against every position but running back (20th).
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (GPP)
The Raiders get Trent Brown back at right tackle, which should allow Josh Jacobs to rebound from a miserable matchup with the Buccaneers last week without Brown.
Derek Carr is also a contrarian option at QB against a Browns defense that ranks 25th in passing DVOA. Carr has been efficient — he is tied for sixth in the league with 8.2 yards per attempt — and doesn’t need to throw downfield to put up big numbers. Carr’s top correlation is to Darren Waller, who could land in the single digits in ownership this week despite posting six catches and/or a TD in five of six games this season.
For the Browns, Jarvis Landry is a nice leverage play for Cleveland in a game where Hunt and Bryant will have more ownership.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (GPP)
Justin Herbert has 24-plus DraftKings points in 4-of-5 starts, two of which came against top-five pass-DVOA defenses of Tampa Bay and Kansas City.
For the Broncos, rookie tight end Albert Okwuegbunam has drawn 13 targets on just 55 snaps in his first two games as a pro and is worth a large-field dart throw.
Los Angeles Rams at Miami Dolphins (GPP)
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are both expected to be under 5% owned. Miami is allowing the third-fewest schedule-adjusted yards per game to tight ends (39.2), which could increase the usage of Kupp and Woods.
For the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa is expected to be potentially the least-owned QB on the slate and is worth rostering for the upside that comes with the uncertainty and his low ownership. The Dolphins’ pass offense exceeded expectations with Ryan Fitzpatrick and could do the same with Tagovailoa.
With Devante Parker having to contend with Jalen Ramsey, this could be a good spot for Mike Gesicki. The Rams are allowing the fourth-most schedule-adjusted targets (8.4) and ninth-most schedule adjusted yards (59.8) per game to opposing tight ends.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (GPP)
Dalvin Cook is projected for under 10% ownership in a game where high winds are expected and the Packers rank 22nd in run-defense DVOA.
This could also be a great spot for Packers DST, which projects for the fourth-highest ceiling on the slate. Kirk Cousins has thrown four interceptions and taken eight sacks in his last three starts against the Packers.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (GPP)
Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley all pop with positive Leverage Plus/Minus scores against a Patriots pass defense that ranks 23rd in passing DVOA and will be without top cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
Cam Newton is a high-risk/high-reward option this week, as he could get benched, but also could be the Pats’ only means of offense with Julian Edelman (knee) out.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (GPP)
With Michael Thomas (hamstring), Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-19) and Marquez Callaway (ankle) out, Jared Cook is one of the only Saints’ regular pass catchers left standing and could have a big game at 2-4% projected ownership. The Bears have allowed the eighth-most schedule-adjusted targets to tight ends.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (GPP)
The Jets are a pass funnel defense, ranking 14th in rushing DVOA but 29th against the pass. We may see the Chiefs air it out even though they are large favorites. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce each have top-three ceilings at their respective position but are expected to attract ownership that ranks lower, giving all three positive Leverage Plus/Minus scores in a game in which they have a slate leading 34-point implied total.
For the Jets, La’Mical Perine has multiple avenues to a big game. He could rack up yardage on the ground against a Chiefs defense ranked 31st in rushing DVOA, as well as benefit from check-down receptions after running 20 routes out of the backfield last week while Frank Gore (hand, questionable) ran five.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (GPP)
The Steelers have still managed to allow multiple passing TDs in all but one game, and if Lamar Jackson can throw for multiple scores combined with his usual rushing production, he has a chance to be the top scorer on the slate at sub-10% ownership. Jackson, Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews all have positive Leverage Plus/Minus scores.
Ravens DST is averaging the most fantasy points per game on the slate and could feast on a Steelers offense ranked bottom three in early-down success rate on offense.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (GPP)
With Jimmy Garoppolo expected to be chalk, Tevin Coleman is in a nice leverage spot at 0-1% projected ownership. Kyle Shanahan obviously doesn’t view Jerick McKinnon or JaMycal Hasty as true workhorses, and with Jeff Wilson (ankle) and Raheem Mostert (ankle) on the shelf, we could see Coleman thrust back into a featured role.
For the Seahawks, Tyler Lockett is expected to be owned in twice as many lineups as D.K. Metcalf, making the latter the better option to stack with Russell Wilson.
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (GPP)
Derrick Henry isn’t the top RB play in terms of value this week, but he averages 21.2 DK points and a +6.19 Plus/Minus as a favorite since 2018 and could easily finish as the top RB on the slate.
The Titans are second on the slate in implied point total (29.25), so their passing game shouldn’t be ignored even with winds expected in Cincinnati. Ryan Tannehill has thrown multiple TD passes in all but two regular-season starts as a Titan, while Jonnu Smith gets a matchup against a Bengals defense allowing the most schedule-adjusted yards per game to opposing tight ends (71.4). Tannehill, Smith and Corey Davis each have positive Leverage Plus/Minus scores.
For the Bengals, Tee Higgins looks like the best GPP option, as he is cheaper than Tyler Boyd and has been more consistently productive than A.J. Green. Higgins has topped double-digit DraftKings points in each of the past five games.
New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.
Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network who hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
Pictured: Kareem Hunt.
Photo Credit: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
