This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.

Week 7 shmoney time!

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Quarterback (Cash)

• Kyler Murray, Cardinals ($7,100 DK, $8,400 FD) vs. SEA
• Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($7,100 DK, $8,400 FD) at ARI

Squaring off against each other, Russell Wilson has the highest median projection on the slate in our NFL Player Models, while Kyler Murray owns the highest floor projection.

Running Back (Cash)

• Jamaal WIlliams, Packers ($4,000 DK, $5,000 FD) at HOU
• Giovani Bernard, Bengals ($4,500 DK, $7,500 FD) vs. CLE
• Alvin Kamara, Saints ($7,800 DK, $9,300 FD) vs. CAR

Alvin Kamara and Giovani Bernard are both smash plays this week. Kamara is averaging 9.0 targets per game and should be heavily relied upon again with Michael Thomas (hamstring) out again and Emmanuel Sanders going on the COVID-19 list. Against a Panthers defense that has given up an NFL-high eight rushing scores to running backs and ranks 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive rushing DVOA, Kamara is the top projected non-QB on the slate in our NFL Player Models.

Both are projected for a Plus/Minus north of +5.0, which has netted a superb 66% Consistency Rating and +4.28 Plus/Minus over a 428-player sample size dating back to 2015, according to our NFL Trends tool.

Jamaal Williams also fits the trend. He was averaging 9.2 touches per game even with Aaron Jones (calf) healthy and will operate as the lead back with Jones expected to sit out this week in a game which the Packers are implied to score a slate-high 30.25 points.

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Wide Receiver (Cash)

• Tre’Quan Smith, Saints ($5,200 DK, $5,500 FD) vs. CAR
• Terry McLaurin, Football Team ($5,800 DK, $6,900 FD) vs. DAL
• Keenan Allen, Chargers ($6,200 DK, $7,000 FD) vs. JAX
• D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks ($7,200 DK, $7,300 FD) at ARI
• Davante Adams, Packers ($7,900 DK, $8,500 FD) at HOU

Tre’Quan Smith was more of a must-play before we got two free squares in Bernard and Williams, but he still makes sense at $4,000 on DraftKings’ tighter cap format, where he ranks top-three in Projected Plus/Minus at the position. With Thomas and Sanders out, Smith becomes the No. 1 wide receiver, and the Panthers have allowed 82.4 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1s, according to Football Outsiders.

Remove the game against Jalen Ramsey in which he caught just three of seven targets for 26 yards, and Terry McLaurin is averaging 6.6 receptions for 91.2 yards on 10.2 targets in his other five outings. He leads all WRs on DraftKings in Projected Plus/Minus.

Before checking out of Week 5 with back spasms, Keenan Allen had seen a target share of 28%, 32%, 40% and 48% over the first four games. With two weeks to get healthy and no injury tag, Allen should eat against a Jags defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers.

D.K. Metcalf has been nearly as unstoppable as Wilson this season, racking up 92-plus yards in all five games and scoring a TD in 4-of-5. He is priced correctly on DraftKings at $7,200, but is priced only $100 higher on FanDuel, giving him a top-three Bargain Rating among WRs and the edge over Allen in Projected Plus/Minus. Even if he matches up with Patrick Peterson, Peterson is no longer a cornerback to fear. His 51.2 Pro Football Focus coverage grade ranks 84th among qualified corners, and he’s on pace to allow a career-high in yards per reception and his most targets since 2014.

Davante Adams has the top projected median and floor among WRs. Since head coach Matt LaFleur took over, Jones is averaging 1.24 TDs per game while Adams is averaging 0.47. In the three years prior, Adams averaged 0.78 TDs, scoring 35 total. With Jones out and his team projected for the most points of the week, Adams is a good bet to get back to his TD-hogging ways.

Tight End (Cash)

• Hunter Henry, Chargers ($4,500 DK, $5,800 FD) vs. JAX
• Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($6,300 DK, $7,900 FD) at DEN

At $6,300, Travis Kelce is way too cheap on DraftKings for a player who has 70-plus yards and/or a TD in every game, bad weather or not.

With Kelce priced up to $7,900 on FanDuel, though, and with George Kittle potentially getting the Bill Belichick eliminate-the-opponent’s-top-option treatment, Hunter Henry makes the most sense. Henry is top three in projected floor, median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus and gets a Jags defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA against tight ends and has given up the seventh-most schedule-adjusted yards per game to the position (62.4), per Football Outsiders.

Defense/Special Teams (Cash)

• New York Jets ($2,000 DK, $3,000 FD) vs. BUF

DSTs continue to offer no value, so continue to punt. This week, the Jets DST is at minimum price, are seeing money pour in on them on the spread and should be able to luck into a couple of mistakes from Josh Allen on short rest.

Roster Build (Cash)

On DraftKings, you can fit Murray, Kamara, Bernard, Williams, Adams, Allen, and Kelce if you punt with Smith at WR3 and the Jets at DST. Going down from Kelce to Henry allows you to go up from Smith to McLaurin. You can also get up to Wilson in the initial lineup if you go down from Allen to McLaurin.

On FanDuel, you can fit Wilson, Kamara, Bernard, Williams, Adams, Henry and any two of Metcalf/McLaurin/Allen, if you punt with the Jets at DST.

This is a good week to roll out multiple cash lineups varying the QBs and receivers while keeping the RBs locked in.

 

Tournament Strategy

Leverage Plus/Minus: Rank in projected ceiling minus rank in projected ownership. The goal in tournaments is to roster the highest scorers at each position rather than simply optimize for value, and Leverage Plus/Minus identifies the players with a higher probability of posting a high score than of being in other entrants’ lineups.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (GPP)

Denzel Mims is a rookie breakout to get ahead of a battered Bills secondary missing No. 2 cornerback Josh Norman (hamstring), while No. 1 corner Tre’Davious White (back, questionable) is also banged up. Jets head coach Adam Gase is coaching for his job, top receiver Jamison Crowder (groin) was downgraded to doubtful and Jeff Smith has struggled in a full-time role, turning 15 targets into only four catches over the past two weeks. It’s not out of the question that the explosive Mims is thrust into a full-time role immediately. Breshad Perriman ran a route on 91% of dropbacks last week and is in play as well. Both are expected to carry sub-5% ownership, making them better low-cost darts than even Gabriel Davis, who will likely be in 9-12% of lineups.

I still like Davis, too — he ran a route on every dropback when John Brown (knee, out) missed two weeks ago — but ideally, a player that cheap should carry half that ownership to give you the best odds of taking down a GPP.

Also note Stefon Diggs pops with a top-six Leverage Plus/Minus. Despite having posted at least 80 yards and/or a TD in every game and the Jets ranking 31st in DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers, the former Viking will likely see modest ownership with entrants looking to stack the late games. Money poured in on the Jets, moving the line from as high as +13.5 back down to +10, which sets up well for another Diggs blowup and a monster Josh Allen bounce-back game.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (GPP)

Given the ownership projections of Kamara, Smith, Jared Cook and even Latavius Murray, the Saints are the team to fade of Drew Brees stacks and the DST, with positive Leverage Plus/Minuses. Deonte Harris and Marquez Callaway should both see something close to full-time snaps and are options in large fields, but WR dart throws aren’t as valuable this week given the cheap options at RB and TE.

For the Panthers, D.J. Moore is shaping up as the best option, as Mike Davis and Robby Anderson project to attract two to three times the ownership.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (GPP)

This is a great time to buy Ezekiel Elliott. He’s coming off a bad game that he will likely get every chance to redeem himself for, Washington sets up as a run funnel (sixth in pass-defense DVOA but 17th vs. the run) and Elliott has the third-highest projected ceiling but is expected to fall outside the top-six RBs in ownership. For the third time this season, Elliott is priced below $8,000 on DraftKings, a spot which has yielded an average of 22.82 points, a +4.28 Plus/Minus, and a 66% Consistency Rating, per the Trends tool.

Dallas-Washington has the second-lowest total on the slate, so both the Cowboys DST and Washington DST are in play as contrarian large-field GPP options.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (GPP)

A half foot of snow is expected in Denver. The Chiefs are the perfect GPP stack team, as they can put up points even in low total games because of their efficiency. Defenses know Patrick Mahomes is willing to beat them underneath, Tyreek Hill’s price has bottomed out and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will go overlooked after the team added Le’Veon Bell.

Denver is an intriguing Milly Maker team as well. With Tim Patrick playing well and Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, Jerry Jeudy, Melvin Gordon, and Phillip Lindsay all healthy, Drew Lock has his most explosive arsenal of toys yet, and this is a high-variance outcome since the depressed total is due to the weather more so than the matchup of the two teams.

Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (GPP)

From a tournament perspective, Houston’s secondary playmakers are the ones to target. David Johnson averaged only 12.3 carries per game under Bill O’Brien, but he is averaging 18.0 since Romeo Crennel took over. He’s not expected to crack even 5% ownership despite a juicy matchup with a Packers defense that is ranked 25th in DVOA against the run.

Darren Fells ran 75% of the routes last week, and Green Bay ranks 28th in DVOA against tight ends. And the Packers have been stout against top-two perimeter receivers, which opens the door for a big revenge game spot for Randall Cobb.

Davante Adams has the top projected ceiling on the slate but projects to be outside the top-six in WR ownership, so he’s an option here, as well. Marquez Valdez-Scantling is also a high-leverage pivot off Adams, while the same is true of A.J. Dillon as it relates to Williams.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (GPP)

Matt Ryan already has two four-TD games this season and pops with a positive Leverage Plus/Minus, while Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley both rank top-four in ceiling projection among WRs yet are expected to be outside the top-eight in ownership.

Todd Gurley also pops with one of the top Leverage Plus/Minus at RB. He was inefficient last week but has scored in 4-of-6 games and is starting to see more work in the passing game, as well, with seven targets over his past two. The Lions rank 30th in run-defense DVOA.

For the Lions, I thought DeAndre Swift would generate more buzz coming off a 123-yard, 17-touch breakout performance last week against Jacksonville, but he is going overlooked with all of the cheap value opening up. He’s worth chasing, as many thought he was the most talented running back in the draft before Edwards-Helaire ended up going first.

T.J. Hockenson goes against a Falcons defense allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted yards to opposing tight ends (73.4). Marvin Jones has been an effective decoy but is still running 90% of the routes each week and has the four-TD type upside that will win a GPP one of these weeks.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (GPP)

With Bernard, Kareem Hunt, and Joe Burrow all expected to be popular plays this week, the value is on the most overlooked facet of this game: the Cleveland passing offense. Baker Mayfield, who ranks 33rd in passer rating under pressure, predictably struggled against Pittsburgh defense that ranks No. 1 in pressure rate (39.4%, per Pro Football Reference), but he had his best fantasy game in Week 2 against this Bengals squad that ranks dead last (16.9%), throwing for 279 yards and three TDs (albeit with 3 INTs, too). Mayfield doesn’t have enough rushing juice for a full slate but is a great option on early-only slates, as are Jarvis Landry and David Njoku, who are underpriced given the matchup.

Odell Beckham Jr., however, is an option in all formats given that he’s priced similarly to Allen and provides leverage on Hunt ownership.

For the Bengals, I’d keep riding with Tee Higgins, who went 6/125/0 last week and is now averaging 4.8/76/0.5 over the past four games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (GPP)

The entire Jags offense is in a great leverage spot. Since Allen and Henry likely to be the chalk at the positions, it sets up a win-win for Gardner Minshew and the passing game: If Allen and Henry produce as expected, the Jaguars will likely be airing it out to keep up, but there’s also a chance the Chargers build up a big and take the air out of the ball. Minshew leads the league in completions per game, so he should be throwing either way, and each member of the starting five has value:

• DJ Chark has seen at least 25% target share in two of three games since returning.
• Laviska Shenault Jr. has seen at least 15% of the targets in each of the past four games and ran a season-high 74% of team routes last week.
• Keelan Cole has seen 12-21% of targets in every game.
• Starting tight end Tyler Eifert is out, which will likely work to concentrate the targets even more among Chark/Shenault/Cole, but there’s still room for James O’Shaugnessy to pay off at $2,600. O’Shaughnessy ran a route on 68% of the dropbacks ater Eifert went down last week and the Chargers rank 28th in DVOA against tight ends.
• Even though the Jags are pass-heavy, James Robinson can still eat because he sees 90-100% of the backfield carries in each game. On top of that, passing-down specialist Chris Thompson was placed on the COVID-19 list, which means Robinson, who is already third among RBs in receiving yards (207) and tied for fifth in catches (23) could see even more work in the passing game.

For the Chargers, what stands out is that all of Justin Herbert’s pass-catchers (Allen, Henry, Mike Williams) and running backs (Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley). GIven projected ownership, I would only play Allen/Henry in GPPs if stacked with Herbert. Nearly half of Herbert’s TDs have gone to less-heralded players he’s worked with on the second-team offense in camp (Jalen Guyton, Tyron Johnson, Donald Parham) and he has rushing ability, so playing him unstacked is a great way to differentiate.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (GPP)

Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown pop with the top Leverage Plus/Minuses at their respective positions. Tannehill has thrown for multiple TDs in 13 of 15 starts as a Titan, and although Pittsburgh ranks eighth in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, they’ve still allowed 79.8 schedule-adjusted yards to the position, the sixth most.

In fact, the entire Titans offense is undervalued in this spot. Even against Pittsburgh’s No. 1 run defense, Derrick Henry still has the fourth-highest ceiling projection among RBs but is expected to fall outside the top eight in ownership. Remember, this is still a game in which the Titans are favored and this is one of the six games on the slate with an over/under of at least 50.

For the Steelers, Chase Claypool‘s breakout has created a buy-low situation for JuJu Smith-Schuster at low ownership. The emergence of Claypool coupled with the return of Diontae Johnson should force defenses to shift from Smith-Schuster being the primary focus. He’s run a route on at least 96% of dropbacks in four of five games, including each of the past two, so there aren’t any underlying usage concerns.

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (GPP)

This is a tough matchup for George Kittle, as Bill Belichick will likely make him the primary focus this week. But at 5-8% projected ownership, he’s graded out with the top Leverage Plus/Minus for TEs this week. Be sure to monitor his projection in our models leading up to afternoon lock, because he’d be a fade if his ownership projection increased to more in line with Henry and Kelce.

I would avoid the RB quagmires on both sides, as we don’t know for sure how the work will be split between Jerick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty (and potentially Jeff Wilson, if active), while the roles of James White, Rex Burkhead, and Damien Harris are game-script dependent.

Instead, I’d look to Cam Newton at what is expected to be sub-5% ownership. Newton has enough rushing upside to be a GPP winner even if his receiving corps is dust, and he’s getting reinforcements on the O-line this week.

Patriots DST is a top play this week. New England is projected for the fourth-highest ceiling, and the 49ers have allowed the second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus to DSTs (though some of that came with Jimmy Garoppolo out or banged up).

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (GPP)

DeAndre Hopkins is projected for the second-highest ceiling among WRs but is expected to be outside the top-eight in ownership due to his injury tag. This is also a squeaky wheel situation for Nuk after he and Kyler Murray were seen yelling on the sidelines Monday against Dallas, a game in which Hopkins had just two catches.

Murray and Russell Wilson project to be the highest owned QBs on the slate, so the key to approaching this game is to either (a) fade it completely, (b) use the receivers involved with cheaper QBs rather than stacking, as stacking could also backfire if Murray or Wilson run one in, (c) use Wilson or Murray unstacked, or (d) pivot to Chris Carson, who has scored 19.8 or more DK points in four of five games and could benefit from Wilson TD regression, as an unsustainable 19 of 23 Seahawks offensive TDs have come through the air.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders (GPP)

Note: This game has been flexed from Sunday Night Football into the afternoon window but it is not included on FanDuel’s main slate.

With the uncertainty surrounding this game due to COVID, this game is expected to attract low ownership and is a good one to target, assuming no further complications. Derrick Carr, Josh Jacobs, Ronald Jones and Darren Waller are all among the leaders in Leverage Plus/Minus at their respective positions.

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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network who hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.

Pictured: Alvin Kamara (left).
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images.