In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Justin Herbert
- Justin Fields
- Russell Wilson
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Justin Herbert ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (49 total)
Last week’s expected shootout lived up to the hype, with Justin Herbert throwing for over 400 yards and three touchdowns against the lowly Minnesota Vikings’ defense. He gets another plus matchup this week against the Raiders, who just allowed two touchdowns to Kenny Pickett.
The Raiders have allowed the third-highest completion rate and touchdown rate to opposing quarterbacks on the year. Austin Ekeler was limited in practice Thursday, but with him sidelined, Herbert has dropped back 41 and 47 times.
He has the top ceiling projection of all quarterbacks on the week, as Las Vegas hasn’t really been able to slow anyone down.
He’s the top quarterback in our Tournament Model.
Justin Fields ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs. Denver Broncos (46.5 total)
It’s been an ugly start to the season for Bears fans, and Justin Fields’ fantasy output hasn’t been any prettier. He was in the second tier of quarterbacks taken off the board in season-long drafts, and he’s yet to top 16.7 DraftKings points in a game. There was an uptick in designed runs last week, but still not up to the extent we would like.
This is a make-or-break spot for Fields. He’s been abysmal but now gets to face a defense that just allowed 70 points in an NFL game. Denver has allowed a league-high completion rate, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate, while boasting the lowest pressure rate in the league.
This seems like a spot where you could hold your nose and invest. We saw Fields over $1,000 more expensive just a few weeks ago, and if he is ever going to get right, this is likely the spot.
He’s the top quarterback in our Cash Game Model.
Russell Wilson ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Chicago Bears (46.5 total)
Feeling dangerous? Moving over to the other side of this game, we have Mr. Unlimited himself, Russell Wilson. I can’t say it’s been a good season so far in Denver. The Broncos dropped to 0-3 last week after giving up 150,000 points to the Dolphins. Realistically it was 70, but it might as well have been more.
It hasn’t been terrible for Wilson from a fantasy perspective, as he’s averaged 21.4 DraftKings points through the first three games. Most of this is buoyed by a 30.92-point performance against Washington, but he’s flashed ceiling. The Bears’ defense has allowed the third-highest yards per pass attempt and second-highest touchdown rate. They also only have one sack as a defense.
There’s nothing negative to say about Wilson here except that the Broncos might stink. However, he’s shown he can put up great performances, and this is a tremendous spot.
He’s the top quarterback in Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jalen Hurts ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) vs. Washington Commanders (43.5 total)
Jalen Hurts hasn’t really gotten it going as a passer so far this year. He’s thrown just three touchdowns through three weeks and is averaging 213.33 passing yards per game. They’ve been up big in most of their games, so they haven’t needed too much through the air. However, 6.9 yards per attempt is nothing to be too excited about.
He gets a matchup with a Commanders’ defense that just allowed the Bills to do pretty much whatever they wanted. Josh Allen threw for 218 yards and a touchdown while running for 46 yards and a score. Mr. Unlimited dropped over 30 DraftKings points against them in Week 2 as well.
If there was a spot for Hurts’ passing game to get right, it’s this weekend.
Anthony Richardson ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams (46 total)
Anthony Richardson couldn’t clear concussion protocol last week, but it looks like he’ll be in the lineup here. He hasn’t had a ton of success as a passer, but he’s been able to salvage fantasy scores with his legs. Richardson had 10 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown and three carries for 35 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2. He sustained the concussion in that Week 2 matchup against Houston.
The Rams haven’t given up much to opposing quarterbacks, but they’ve played Geno Smith, Brock Purdy, and a hobbled Joe Burrow. Richardson looks like he’ll be one of the highest-owned quarterbacks on the weekend, but his rushing usage makes it well-warranted.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Joe Burrow ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans (41 total)
Joe Burrow only had 9.2 DraftKings points last week against the Rams, but he got the job done and led them to a win when they needed it. His status was in question coming into the game, and the Bengals responded by dropping Burrow back to pass 50 times. He now gets a matchup with Tennessee’s pass funnel defense, which we’ve been targeting for weeks.
If Burrow was 100% healthy, he’d likely be one of the highest-owned quarterbacks of the week. However, his injury and poor play will likely keep his ownership down.
Tennessee’s defense ranks in the bottom six in completion rate, yards per attempt, and yards per completion.
If the ownership stays low on Burrow, which it looks like it will, I’ll definitely be interested in tournaments.