This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.

Week 17 shmoney time.

Quarterback (Cash)

• Dak Prescott Cowboys ($6,300 DK, $8,000 FD) vs. WAS

Despite posting top-five QB numbers this season, Dak Prescott is priced outside the top five on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and thus is popping with the top Projected Plus/Minus for both sites in our NFL Player Models.

But this isn’t even about Dak. This is about the incredible rash of injuries that have struck Washington’s secondary, which will be without a whopping 10 players in total (11 if you count suspended cornerback Simeon Thomas), including every one of its starters. The biggest absence will be cornerback Quinton Dunbar, whose Pro Football Focus grade of 89.5 ranks No. 1 in the NFL among cornerbacks entering Week 17.

The Redskins’ starting secondary this week will consist of replacement-level talents such as Coty Sensabaugh (41.9), Aaron Colvin (44.9), and Jeremy Reaves (46.8), who have appeared in a combined 16 games on defense this season. And it wouldn’t be right if Washington’s highest-graded player left standing in the secondary, safety Troy Apke, wasn’t questionable with a knee injury after being downgraded from limited practice participation on Thursday to a DNP on Friday. The situation is so dire that I went against everything I stand for and placed a wager on Dallas -11 (you can view live odds here for every game, and follow all of my picks and track your own in the free Action Network App).

Running Back (Cash)

• Ryquell Armstead, Jaguars ($4,400 DK, $5,700 FD) vs. IND
• Damien Williams, Chiefs ($4,700 DK, $6,400 FD) vs. LAC
• DeAndre Washington, Raiders ($5,200 DK, $6,300 FD) at DEN
• Christian McCaffrey, Panthers ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD) vs. NO

It’s unclear whether Leonard Fournette (neck, doubtful) is truly too hurt to play or if his doubtful tag is just the last leg of the Jaguars’ throwing-in-the-towel tour that has taken place over the past two months, but either way, it gives us a free square in Ryquell Armstead. A fifth-round rookie out of Temple, Armstead has 90th-percentile speed and has turned 34 touches into 175 yards and a score this season. Barring a last-minute roster move, the Jags’ only active backs will be Armstead and undrafted rookie Devine Ozigbo, who has four offensive snaps and zero touches on his NFL resume.

Damien Williams returned from injury last week and immediately resumed lead-back duties, logging 16 carries and drawing three targets as the only Chiefs running back to play more than half of the offensive snaps. Over his last three full games, Williams is averaging 19.0 touches for 109.7 yards and 0.67 TDs. In a matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks 23rd in schedule-adjusted efficiency according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, Williams rates as a top-five DraftKings RB value in our Models.

DeAndre Washington is essentially a more expensive version of Armstead. In two spot starts for Josh Jacobs (shoulder, out) over the past three weeks, Jacobs has posted efforts of 20 touches, 96 yards, 1 TD and 23 touches, 106 yards, 1 TD, respectively, while playing 63% of the snaps in each game.

As per usual, Christian McCaffrey has the top median projection among all FLEX-eligible players. In a meaningless Week 17 game without leading receiver D.J. Moore (concussion), the Panthers will likely give CMC every chance to achieve milestones within reach, namely 1,000 rushing/1,000 receiving yards (needs 67 receiving yards), Chris Johnson’s scrimmage yards record (needs 216 yards), and 20 TDs (needs two).

Wide Receiver (Cash)

• Laquon Treadwell, Vikings ($3,000 DK, $5,000 FD) vs. CHI
• Steven Sims, Redskins ($4,700 DK, $6,000 FD) at DAL
• Greg Ward Jr. ($4,700 DK, $6,000 FD) at NYG
• Michael Thomas, Saints ($9,900 DK, $9,200 FD) at CAR

I never thought there would come a time to roster Laquon Treadwell, but he projects as a top-three value at WR on DraftKings with Minnesota expected to rest its starters in a meaningless face-off with a Bears. Treadwell has actually posted strong per-route numbers in a limited sample this season, averaging 3.02 yards per route run and a 23% target rate on 61 routes. In a full-time role, he has a good shot of grabbing the 4-5 catches necessary to pay off his value at min price in full PPR.

The Redskins are also banged up on offense, and the absence of Terry McLaurin (concussion) catapults fellow rookie Steven Sims into the team’s No. 1 receiver role. Over the past three weeks, the diminutive undrafted Kansas alum is averaging 5.0 catches for 49.7 yards and 1.0 TDs on 9.3 targets. Sims ranks No.1 and No. 5 among WRs on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, in Projected Plus/Minus. (Note: If you intend to roster Steven Sims, be sure not to confuse him with Cam Sims, another undrafted rookie who will serve as Washington’s No. 3 receiver.)

Greg Ward Jr. continues to operate as the Eagles’ de-facto No. 1 wide receiver with Alshon Jeffery (ankle) and Nelson Agholor (knee) out and second-rounder J.J. Arcega-Whiteside yet to catch more than two passes in a game. In four games without Agholor, Ward is averaging 5.3 catches for 51.5 yards and 0.25 TDs on 7.5 targets. Ward has twice seen nine targets over the past three games and could be up around that figure again with Ertz out.

Tight End (Cash)

• Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,900 DK, $6,400 FD) at NYG
• Austin Hooper, Falcons ($5,800 DK, $6,000 FD) at TB

Zach Ertz (ribs) has already been ruled out for Philly’s must-win game against the Giants, launching Dallas Goedert into the top three TE ranks and giving him the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position. Averaging a +5.30 Plus/Minus and 90% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games and facing a Giants defense ranked 22nd in DVOA on tight end targets, Goedert would have been a strong value even if Ertz was suiting up.

Austin Hooper is within tenths of a point of Goedert in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Hooper has hit value in nine of 12 games this season, with one of his misses coming in limited snaps in his first game back from an MCL injury. In a matchup against Tampa Bay’s 23rd-ranked defense in DVOA vs. tight ends and with Atlanta missing No. 2 receiver Calvin Ridley (abdominal), Hooper is a good bet to finish the season on a high note.

Defense/Special Teams (Cash)

• Chicago Bears ($2,100 DK, $3,900 FD) at MIN
• New York Jets ($2,700 DK, $3,200 FD) at BUF

Since initially opening as a 7-point underdog to the Vikings, the Bears have seen their line flip all the way to -3 after the Vikings confirmed they intend to rest starters, making Bears DST the top value among DSTs on DraftKings and a no-brainer play against Minnesota’s backups at just $2,100.

The Jets benefit from a similar situation against the Bills, as Buffalo is not expected to play its starters for the entire game after losing out on the AFC East to New England and getting locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC. Priced above only four other DSTs on FanDuel at $3,200, Jets DST projects as the top value at the position there.

Roster Build (Cash)

On DraftKings, you can fit Prescott, McCaffrey, Armstead, Thomas, Sims, Goedert, and Bears DST if you go with Williams over Washington and punt WR3 with Treadwell.

On FanDuel, Prescott, McCaffrey, Washington, Armstead, Thomas, Sims, Ward, and Jets DST all fit if you go with Hooper over Goedert at TE. Without Goedert, it makes sense to roll with Ward over similar values in his salary range, such as Christian Kirk.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (GPP)

In seven games with the Cardinals, Kenyan Drake has produced DK point totals of 31.2, 42.6, and 36.4 (26.2, 39.1, 31.9 on FanDuel), with the latter two coming over the past two weeks. Still, he projects to be in fewer than 10% of lineups, which is far too low. The Cardinals don’t figure to let Kyler Murray (hamstring, questionable) suit up at less than 100% in a meaningless game, which means we should expect him to be his usual self if given the green light. At 0-1% projected ownership, Murray will be the highest-leverage GPP QB. Christian Kirk is also expected to be in fewer than 5% of lineups and is a good bounce-back bet against a Rams secondary without Jalen Ramsey. Larry Fitzgerald could see some extra targets in what could end up being his final NFL game.

The Rams are expected to not push key starters, but I’m not sure they’ll stop Tyler Higbee from posting monster numbers against Arizona’s league-worst defense against tight ends. Higbee has topped 100 yards in four straight games and is worth rostering at 9-12% projected ownership.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (GPP)

Over the long term, it’s never good sign when a WR is running a lot of routes and not getting targeted much, but high usage with a lack of past production also creates short-term value in DFS. At or near minimum price across the industry, Christian Blake, a second-year undrafted receiver out of Northern Illinois, fits the bill after being targeted once on 72 routes over the past two games as Atlanta’s No. 2 perimeter wide receiver opposite Julio Jones with Russell Gage in the slot. Unlike some of the other receivers who we’ve seen run a high volume of routes while drawing few targets, such as Quinton Patton of the Chargers, we’ve actually seen Blake post a high-volume game (6-57-0 on nine targets in Week 13).

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (GPP)

Laquon Treadwell‘s top-three Projected Plus/Minus is valuable in GPPs as well, as he projects for 0-1% ownership.

On the Chicago side, David Montgomery is averaging 17.6 touches per game in the nine games since a four-touch Week 7. He also ranks fifth in the NFL in carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line (14). As a favorite against a Minnesota defense that will sit key players, the talented third-rounder has much greater potential for a big game than his ownership (expected to be 0-1%) would imply.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (GPP)

On this week’s Action Network NFL Betting Podcast, my co-host, Stuckey, pointed out that amid injuries and squabbles with the coaching staff, this is a prime spot for Cleveland to no-show, which gives Bengals DST contrarian appeal in large-field contests at 0-1% ownership. With John Ross projecting as the Cincinnati chalk, there’s strong leverage to be had by simply rostering one of the offense’s two highest-usage players, Joe Mixon (2-4%) and Tyler Boyd (5-8%), both of whom project in the green in terms of Leverage Plus/Minus.

One player who I wouldn’t expect to no-show is Nick Chubb, who enters Week 17 with a 92-yard lead on McCaffrey for the rushing title. With Jarvis Landry (hip) and Odell Beckham Jr. (hernia) both expected to suit up but also headed for offseason surgery, Chubb is likely to get as much work as he can handle to fend off McCaffrey. Especially with his ownership projection sitting under 5%, Chubb’s upside is worth the cost.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (GPP)

As I talked about in our Lions-Packers betting guide, the Packers defense should swallow up David Blough, who is averaging just 4.84 net yards per pass attempt. I like the Aaron Jones–Packers DST stack as a way to offset what projects to be relatively high ownership for each. The Green Bay D is one of the only fantasy options on the team that has seen positively correlated production with Jones this season (+0.18 on FanDuel, +0.15 on DraftKings).

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (GPP)

Jack Doyle played 61-of-64 snaps last week and has value at 0-1% projected ownership against a Jags defense that is ranked 30th in DVOA vs. tight ends.

With Ryquell Armstead likely to depress ownership of the Jags passing game, this is a great spot to pivot to D.J. Chark, who is expected to garner ownership below 5%.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (GPP)

Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has hit its stride to the tune of 9.6 points per game allowed over its past five, including a four-interception effort of Philip Rivers in a 24-17 Week 13 victory over the Chargers. Because it also benefits from the explosive return ability of Mecole Hardman, the Chiefs DST is one of the highest-upside plays on the slate. Patrick Mahomes (5-8%), Tyreek Hill (9-12%) project to go under-owned given their upside. Sammy Watkins (2-4%) could also end up seeing more targets that usual if stud safety Derwin James is able to limit Travis Kelce (9-12%).

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (GPP)

With Sony Michel (illness) iffy and the Patriots big favorites in a Week 17 game, the stage is set for Rex Burkhead to lead the backfield in touches. Burkhead is projected for 0-1% ownership and would make a better play if Michel is active, as a Michel scratch would likely send Burkhead’s ownership skyrocketing.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (GPP)

Due to high price tags and projected ownership, Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas both make more sense in cash games than GPPs. After falling flat in career start No. 1 on the road, Will Grier is a nice leverage play on McCaffrey paired with Greg Olsen or Curtis Samuel, though the latter has a tough matchup against cornerback Marshon Lattimore. By the same token, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray provide strong leverage on Thomas. The Saints backs could have a field day against Carolina’s 32nd-ranked defense in rushing DVOA.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (GPP)

Le’Veon Bell is underpriced and undervalued at 2-4% ownership, especially against a Bills defense that won’t be at full strength. Bell-Jets DST is another +EV RB-DST stack.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (GPP)

Noah Fant has been hampered by injury over the past few games but has monster upside against a Raiders defense allowing the seventh-most schedule-adjusted yards per game to tight ends (60.0). Second-year wideout DaeSean Hamilton has also seen more volume from Drew Lock than Joe Flacco or Brandon Allen, racking up 15 targets over the past two games. Both Fant and Hamilton are high-leverage pivots off Courtland Sutton and Phillip Lindsay.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (GPP)

Philly’s QB-Opposing QB correlation is +0.61 this season, making Daniel Jones an intriguing pivot off Carson Wentz, who is projected a tier higher in ownership. The Eagles weakness is covering wide receivers, so Stelring Shepard, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton should all be in play, with Slayton offering the most value after he missed part of last week’s game and ended up finishing with no catches, resulting in an ownership expectation of 2-4% compared to 5-8% for Shepard and Tate.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (GPP)

Ravens DST is cheaper than Steelers DST and projects to be in only a quarter of lineups. The Baltimore defense is still going up against Devlin Hodges and makes for a nice correlation play with Gus Edwards or Justice Hill, who will be filling in for Mark Ingram (rest) in Baltimore’s high-volume rushing attack.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (GPP)

In hindsight, it seems like the Titans purposely held Derrick Henry out last week to get him ready for this week’s must-win against the Texans. Henry is a nice pivot off of Ezekiel Elliott, who projects for three times as much ownership. The Texans have been gashed for 158.6 scrimmage yards and 1.4 TDs per game by opposing backs over the past five weeks.

For Houston, Keke Coutee will likely be active and see a lot of targets with Will Fuller out and DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills unlikely to be pushed the entire game (unless the Chiefs lose in the early window). If the Chiefs lose, be ready to pivot to Deshaun Watson and Hopkins in what would then become a meaningful game, as they will likely be low-owned to begin with, and most of the field likely won’t react in time to swap to them.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (GPP)

See the QB section for the state of Washington’s secondary. Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb, and Jason Witten for all the money.

For Washington, rookie sixth-rounder Kelvin Harmon will start along with Steve Sims and projects for a similar Plus/Minus at half the ownership.

Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a host of “The Action Network” on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio every Wednesday-Friday at 10 a.m. ET. He also hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.

Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams (26)
Photo Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports.