This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Week 16 shmoney time.
Quarterback (Cash)
- Deshaun Watson, Texans ($7,000 DK, $8,600 FD) at TB
Our NFL Player Models have Deshaun Watson projected to score the most points on the slate, and it’s not particularly close. Watson’s projected floor nearly doubles up that of every other player on the slate, as well. In a cash game format, Watson has to be the choice over Jameis Winston, who is missing a trio of receivers in Mike Evans (hamstring), Chris Godwin (hamstring), and Scotty Miller (hamstring) that combined to account for 58% of his passing yardage and 60% of his TDs. (Also: What’s the deal with all those hamstring injuries? Are Bucs wide receivers skipping their pre-game stretching routine?)
As I discussed in our Texans-Bucs betting guide, the presence of Will Fuller (hamstring) gives Watson the ideal setup to attack Tampa Bay’s pass defense, which has seen a league-high 41.5 pass attempts per game as opponents look to avoid a run defense that ranks No. 1 in schedule-adjusted efficiency, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Watson’s median rushing yardage output this season is 32 yards, which helps keep his floor high should the windy conditions expected at Raymond James Stadium become a factor.
Running Back (Cash)
- Ronald Jones, Buccaneers ($4,400 DK, $5,500 FD) vs. HOU
- James White, Patriots ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD) vs. BUF
- Devin Singletary, Bills ($5,500 DK, $6,500 FD) at NE
On a slate in which the totals in all three games have plummeted (view live odds), I’m leaning toward players on the team with the most volume up for grabs (Bucs) in what remains the highest-totaled game on the slate (50). Bucs head coach Bruce Arians alluded to getting running backs more involved in the passing game, which would stand to benefit Ronald Jones the most, as he leads the team in routes run per game since the Week 7 bye (13.1, per Pro Football Focus).
James White has been a high-floor play all season, cracking double-digit DraftKings points in 11-of-13 games and falling 0.4 points short in a 12th. And despite FanDuel’s 0.5-PPR scoring format, he’s surpassed salary-based expectations there in 11-of-13 games, as well.
Devin Singletary figures to be Buffalo’s primary means of offense against New England’s No. 1-ranked defense in DVOA. Last week, Singletary picked up 89 yards on 23 touches against a similarly stout unit in Pittsburgh (No. 3), while New England let up 156 yards on 28 touches to Joe Mixon.
Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary (26)
Wide Receiver (Cash)
- Justin Watson, Buccaneers ($4,600 DK, $5,700 FD) vs. HOU
- Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($5,100 DK, $6,200 DK) vs. LAR
- Will Fuller, Texans ($5,900 DK, $6,100 FD) at TB
- DeAndre Hopkins, Texans ($8,500 DK, $8,700 FD) at TB
At 6-foot-3, 215 with plus athleticism, Justin Watson has played 42% of his snaps in the slot this season and is most likely to replace the lost production of Godwin. Seventy-five percent of Watson’s targets this season have come over the middle, where Houston’s defense ranks dead last in DVOA. Watson has the top Projected Plus/Minus on the slate among WRs in our models.
Deebo Samuel should benefit the most from the absence of Rams cornerback Troy Hill (thumb). Hill’s replacement, Darius Williams, allowed 4-70-1 on five targets last week while Jalen Ramsey (who figures to follow Emmanuel Sanders) wasn’t targeted. Samuel has a top-four Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both sites.
In the nine full games they’ve played together, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller have combined for 56% of the targets and 62% of the air yards, per AirYards.com. Hopkins has the top median projection of any non-QB on the slate, while Fuller is neck-and-neck with Julian Edelman (shoulder, knee), who posted a modest 4-30-0 line in the first meeting with Buffalo.
John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texan wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10)
Tight End (Cash)
- George Kittle, 49ers ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD) vs. LAR
The return of Gerald Everett (knee) clouds the outlook for Tyler Higbee, which leaves George Kittle as the clear-cut top value at the position. Kittle has topped 50 yards in 10-of-12 games this season, including an 8-103-0 outburst in the first meeting with the Rams. Among non-QBs, Kittle’s median projection trails only Hopkins.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85)
Defense/Special Teams (Cash)
- Los Angeles Rams ($2,500 DK, $3,500 FD) at SF
- New England Patriots ($4,000 DK, $4,800 FD) vs. BUF
On DraftKings it makes more sense to punt DST with either Rams DST or Bucs DST, and it makes more sense to go with a Wade Phillips-coached defense in a division game than a Bucs D facing Watson for the first time.
On FanDuel, there’s enough salary to pay up for a Patriots DST that has failed to hit double digits only against the Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, and Ravens while averaging 20.4 in the other 10 games.
Roster Build (Cash)
On DraftKings, you can fit Watson, Hopkins, Kittle, White, Singletary, and Samuel if you punt with Watson, Jones, and Rams DST.
On FanDuel, Watson, Hopkins, Kittle, Fuller, White, Singletary, and Pats DST all fit if you roll with Jones and Watson at the last RB and WR spots, respectively.
Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (GPP)
Texans: As over half the field is expected to roster Deshaun Watson and Co., it’s sets up Carlos Hyde as a prime leverage play. Hyde also projects to be lower owned than Duke Johnson. Kenny Stills is expected to draw a fraction of the ownership of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller and makes for a good pivot off of either or both. Tampa Bay ranks No. 27 in DVOA on targets to tight ends but No. 1 vs. running backs, giving both Jordan Akins and Darren Fells appeal as lower-cost pivots off Johnson.
Buccaneers: With Watson expected to garner four times as much ownership, Jameis Winston is easily the top GPP play at QB. Breshad Perriman is expected to be in more than twice as many lineups as Winston, and given his price, I would limit him to Winston stacks, as Justin Watson has similar upside. O.J. Howard is expected to draw less ownership than either and costs the least, making him the best play of the trio. Cameron Brate is in play as leverage on Howard or a pivot off of Ronald Jones or Peyton Barber; on pass plays where an extra blocker is needed, either Brate or the running backs would serve in that role. No. 3 running back Dare Ogunbowale hasn’t seen more than 6 targets or 2 carries in a game all season and is more of a Showdown-only dart throw than viable main slate option. No. 3 wide receiver Ishmael Hyman is overpriced on Showdown and actually makes more sense at min price on main slate large field contests.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (GPP)
Bills: After getting gashed for 16-61-2 on the ground by Lamar Jackson, the Patriots went on to hold Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, and Patrick Mahomes to a combined 9 yards on 11 carries. That leads me to believe they’ll force Josh Allen to beat them from the pocket, so I’d give the edge to an Allen-John Brown stack over Allen solo. Cole Beasley had a surprisingly decent game against New England in the first meeting and could benefit from the absence of slot corner Jonathan Jones (groin). Allen-Brown has a +0.68 correlation while Allen-Beasley is at -0.04, so Beasley also works as a standalone play. Devin Singletary has the highest projected ceiling among RBs on the slate and is still the top option here. The Pats like to force a team’s fourth and fifth option to beat them, which in theory could benefit Dawson Knox or Isaiah McKenzie. Knox gives you more leverage since ownership will be highly concentrated at TE. McKenzie is a better bet on Showdown slates at $600. The top low-cost play on Buffalo on the main slate, though, is Bills DST. The Bills have racked up 20 sacks over the last five games and are liable to force coverage sacks on Brady’s increasingly unreliable passing game weapons. A low-scoring game is also likely, as the under is 10-0 in Allen’s career as a road underdog, according to our Bet Labs data.
Patriots: Tom Brady went 18-of-39 for 150 yards and a pick in the first meeting; it’s tough to get behind him for any other reason except that he’s expected to be the slate’s lowest owned QB (2-4%). Julian Edelman is expected to be in nearly half of all lineups and has a +0.44 correlation with Brady, so there’s leverage on fading Edelman and on fading Edelman outside of those stacks. Non-Edelman Patriots wide receiver snaps last week went Mohamed Sanu 56, N’Keal Harry 38, Phillip Dorsett 9, Jakobi Meyers 7. Sanu and Harry both will be under 10% owned provide massive leverage on Edelman, as well. Outside of Showdowns, Matt LaCosse (49) and Ben Watson (34) are tougher sells against a Bills defense that has historically been strong against the tight end position under Sean McDermott. Sony Michel is an underrated play at RB, as he has 20-touch upside and is expected to draw less ownership than James White in a game where the Pats could simply try to line up and play power football. Rex Burkhead is a viable pivot off either in large fields and Showdowns. Burkhead has logged 18-plus snaps in four of the past six games.And of course, Patriots DST is back in play in the Showdown Captain spot.
Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots running back Rex Burkhead (34)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (GPP)
Rams: Jared Goff is in a similar boat to Brady where the only thing he has going for him is projected low ownership. As I talk about in our Rams-49ers Betting Guide, the 49ers are a nightmare matchup for Goff and the Rams offensive line. In the first matchup, Goff went 13-of-24 for 78 yards. That leaves Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Tyler Higbee in no-mans land as well. As Sean McVay is likely to combat the San Francisco pass rush with the quick passing game and could use the tight end or back to chip, I’d lean Kupp and Woods over Higbee and Todd Gurley.
49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo has a top-three ceiling projection at the position and projects to be lower owned than George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Emmanuel Sanders, but Raheem Mostert projects to be lower owned than all of them. Mostert is averaging 16.0 touches per game over his last three and has taken over as the lead back ahead of Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman, who would be mere dart throws. Speaking of which, Kendrick Bourne is an underrated low-cost WR play at 0-1% ownership, particularly since he’s the least likely to see Ramsey in coverage. 49ers DST is also in prime position to eat against the pressure-averse Goff.
Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a host of “The Action Network” on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio every Wednesday-Friday at 10 a.m. ET. He also hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
Pictured above: Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4)
Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
