This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.

Week 15 shmoney time.

Quarterback (Cash)

• Deshaun Watson, Texans ($6,800 DK, $8,200 FD) at TEN

With Lamar Jackson not available this week, Deshaun Watson slots in with the top median projection in our NFL Player Models and also leads all QBs in Projected Plus/Minus as he takes on the Titans in Tennessee as a 3-point underdog. Texans-Titans is this week’s best bet for a shootout: the slate-high over/under is 51.5 (view live odds) and the Titans are missing their top two cornerbacks (Malcolm Butler, Adoree’ Jackson) from a pass defense already ranked 23rd in schedule-adjusted efficiency per Football Outsiders DVOA, Houston’s pass defense has been even worse (27th), which raises his floor/ceiling and also helps explain why the Texans are underdogs. Watson has thrived under these types of circumstances in the past, posting a +6.05 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency Rating in 12 games as a road underdog, according to our NFL Trends tool. In fact, Watson has hit value as the second highest rate (75%) among all QBs in our database, which dates back to 2014.

Running Back (Cash)

• Patrick Laird, Dolphins ($4,500 DK, $5,500 FD) at NYG
• Chris Carson, Seahawks ($7,500 DK, $7,400 FD) at CAR
• Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys ($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD) vs. LAR
• Dalvin Cook, Vikings ($8,900 DK, $8,500 FD) at LAC

After playing 82% of Miami’s offensive snaps and parlaying 19 touches into 86 yards in last week’s 22-21 loss to the Jets, Patrick Laird projects as a top-two value against a Giants defense that ranks 10 spots lower than its MetLife Stadium co-tenant in schedule-adjusted efficiency in run defense (12th vs. 2nd), as well as four spots lower on passes to running backs (25th vs. 21st).

Chris Carson‘s 21.6 touches per game rank sixth in the league, and in four games without Rashaad Penny (ACL, IR), that figure climbs to 23.5, which would rank second behind only Christian McCaffrey (25.5). A matchup with Carolina’s 32nd-ranked unit in run-defense DVOA and a 25% discount relative to McCaffrey makes Carson the superior RB play in this contest. Per the Trends tool, the Panthers are allowing an NFL-high 23.3 DraftKings points and +9.65 Plus/Minus to RBs projected for at least 50 yards since the start of October.

Matthew Freedman lays out all the pros and cons to rostering Saquon Barkley against Miami in his Week 15 Fantasy Running Back Breakdown. While I think Barkley will be fine, I also think it’s safer to roster higher-floor backs at similar price points in cash. On DraftKings, Ezekiel Elliott is priced below $8,000 for just the third time all season. In 21 career games in which he’s been below that price point, Zeke is averaging 22.68 DK points, a +4.08 Plus/Minus, and 71% Consistency. The Rams are no slouch on run defense (fourth in DVOA) but are still surrendering 123.3 scrimmage yards and 0.85 TDs per game to opposing backfields, and Zeke has played 91% of the snaps over the past 10 games.

Dalvin Cook costs $1,100 more than Elliott on DraftKings, but the two have the same price on FanDuel. Cook has the edge over Zeke in average FanDuel points per game (20.0 vs. 16.7) and a higher season-low mark (11.9 vs. 7.3). The Chargers rank 23rd in run-defense DVOA but have have held seven of the last 10 quarterbacks they’ve faced to under 200 yards passing, so this figures to be a high-volume game for Cook. His usage should increase because of an injury to Alexander Mattison (ankle), who had been taking 28% of the team’s backfield carries.

Wide Receiver (Cash)

• Greg Ward Jr., Eagles ($3,000 DK, $4,900 FD) at WAS
• A.J. Brown, Titans ($6,000 DK, $6,200 FD) vs. HOU
• D.J. Moore, Panthers ($6,600 DK, $6,900 FD) vs. SEA
• Julian Edelman, Patriots ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD) at CIN

Even on FanDuel’s lower-scoring format that awards 0.5 points per reception and no yardage bonuses, Julian Edelman has managed to score in the double-digits in nine straight games and 11-of-13 overall, and D.J. Moore has been in double digits for six straight and 10-of-13 overall. Among WRs with top-six median projections in our Models, Edelman and Moore are the two cheapest.

A.J. Brown projects for the top Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Brown has surpassed salary-based expectations in five of Ryan Tannehill‘s seven starts, missing value by 0.01 points in a sixth. Over his last five games, Brown has run a route on 86% of dropbacks compared to 59% over his first eight, according to data from Pro Football Focus. The rookie has commanded a team-leading 34% air-yard share and 23% target share over that span, per AirYards.com.

Greg Ward Jr. is a top-two WR value on DraftKings thanks to his minimum-priced salary and the absence of Nelson Agholor (knee). In two games without Agholor, Ward has averaged 8.0 targets and 5.0 catches in Agholor’s slot role.

Tight End (Cash)

• Tyler Higbee, Rams ($3,900 DK, $5,700 FD) at DAL

With Gerald Everett (knee, out) missing the last two games, Tyler Higbee has caught at least five passes in each of his last three, averaging 6.3 catches for 86.3 yards and 0.67 TDs on 8.3 targets over that stretch. He should be able to keep it going against a Cowboys defense that ranks 29th in DVOA on targets to tight ends. Higbee is the cheapest TE with a top-seven median projection at the position on both sites.

Defense/Special Teams (Cash)

• New York Giants  ($2,700 DK, $3,900 FD) vs. MIA
• Kansas City Chiefs ($3,500 DK, $3,900 FD) vs. DEN

Giants DST is $700 cheaper than any other DST that has a top-five floor projection on DraftKings. Opposing DSTs are averaging 11.08 DraftKings points against the Dolphins, third-most in the league.

The Giants are not as good of a value as Chiefs DST on FanDuel, where both are the same price but the Chiefs have 1.5-point edge in median projection and rank No. 3 among all defenses on the slate.

Roster Build (Cash)

On DraftKings, you can fit Watson, Elliott, Carson, Edelman, Moore, Higbee, and Giants DST if you punt with Laird and Ward.

On FanDuel, punting with Laird lets you get in all of Watson, Cook, Carson, Edelman, Moore, Brown, Higbee, and Chiefs DST.

Rostering Watson is also advantageous because it lets you capture the production of DeAndre Hopkins, who projects as a top-two WR in raw projection, but one of the worst values at his price point.

 

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (GPP)

The 49ers ended up being the surprise defense to target last week, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a repeat this week. The 49ers defense will be without CB Richard Sherman (hamstring), CB K’Waun Williams (concussion), S Jaquiski Tartt (ribs), DE Dee Ford (hamstring), DT Julian Taylor (elbow), and DT D.J. Jones (ankle), while LB Kwon Alexander was lost a few weeks ago. Matt Ryan and Austin Hooper both project for 0-1% ownership, while Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are at 2-4%.

For San Francisco, Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel are in a great spots with the Falcons missing top cornerback Desmond Trufant while No. 2 cornerback Isaiah Oliver (shoulder) is banged up. The Falcons tend to play a lot of zone, so George Kittle benefits from those injuries as well. Kittle has a top-two ceiling projection among TEs, but he could end up as low as fifth or sixth in terms of ownership. And Jimmy Garoppolo also has a top-three ceiling projection on DraftKings, but is projected to be in fewer lineups than new lead back Raheem Mostert (9-12%). Mostert is a better play on FanDuel, where his ownership is projected at 2-4% while Garoppolo is at 5-8%.

The total in this game has increased from 45.5 at open to 48.5 at the time of this writing. According to our public betting data, 86% of bets and 96% of dollars wagered have come in on the over.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (GPP)

Packers-Bears is expected to be a low-scoring divisional clash, but Allen Robinson pasted Green Bay for 7-102 on 13 targets in a game that ended 10-7 in Week 1. Expected to appear in fewer than 5% of lineups, Robinson has a top-two Leverage Plus/Minus among WRs.

Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals (GPP)

Kenyan Drake has been relatively quiet since erupting for 162 yards from scrimmage and a TD in his first game as a Cardinal, but he’s faced nothing but top-nine run defenses in DVOA over that span, while the Browns rank 25th. Drake saw 73% of the backfield carries last week with David Johnson and Chase Edmonds back, and he’s averaging 4.0 targets per game over the last two with Johnson back. Drake is projected for 2-4% ownership, roughly half as much as Kyler Murray (5-8%) and a third as much as Christian Kirk (9-12%).

For the Browns, David Njoku projects to see just 0-1% ownership despite a matchup with a Cardinals defense that has allowed the most yards (956) and TDs (13) to tight ends. Baker Mayfield also makes for a nice pivot off Murray at half of the projected ownership, as the Cards have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (GPP)

One of the best approaches to GPPs at WR is to target low-owned sources of air yards. Courtland Sutton‘s 41% air-yard share ranks second in the NFL, yet he projects for just 2-4% ownership.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (GPP)

The Texans have been by far the least efficient defense on passes over the middle, according to Football Outsiders, which sets up Jonnu Smith as a strong GPP play at 0-1% projected ownership in a game where slot receiver Adam Humphries (ankle) is out and A.J. Brown projects for ownership in the teens. The best way to leverage Brown is fade him outside of stacks with Ryan Tannehill, as the two have a monstrous +0.80 correlation.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (GPP)

With 83% of the bets and 96% of dollars wagered in Jaguars-Raiders coming in on the over, this sets up as a sneaky shootout spot. With Leonard Fournette, Chris Conley, and Dede Westbrook all expected to approach 20% ownership, the only real edge in using the Jaguars is stacking them with Gardner Minshew (2-4%).

Meanwhile, the Raiders offense is expected to be lower owned than the Jags despite being a 6.5-point favorite. Due to his questionable tag, Josh Jacobs (shoulder) projects for sub-5% ownership against a Jags defense that has been pummeled by opposing backs for 227.4 yards from scrimmage and 2.0 TDs per game over its last five. Derek Carr and Tyrell Williams also project for sub-5% ownership and each ranks near the top of their respective position in Leverage Plus/Minus. And Darren Waller has a top-three ceiling projection but could end up being the fifth- or sixth-highest owned TE.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (GPP)

Cooper Kupp has seen his snap count drop over the past two weeks, but both of those contests came with the Rams leading big for most of the game. Despite leading the Rams in targets (114) and air yards (884), Kupp is projected to be in in a fraction as many lineups as Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee, earning him a top-six Leverage Plus/Minus among WRs on both sites.

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (GPP)

Despite a matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in passing DVOA but 13th against the run, Ryan Fitzpatrick is expected to be in roughly one-tenth as many lineups as Patrick Laird, while Devante Parker projects to be in roughly a quarter as many lineups as Laird despite clearing the concussion protocol. Fitzpatrick has also scored more rushing TDs (3) than Dolphins RBs (2) over the past eight games.

Saquon Barkley‘s top-three ownership projects also sets up the Giants passing game for value in GPPs, as Barkley projects for more ownership than Eli Manning, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Kaden Smith combined. Each of the aforementioned four pass-catchers ran a route on over 90% of Eli’s dropbacks last week. I view Slayton as the highest-upside option thanks to his team-leading 31% air-yard share, but he also projects for the highest ownership among them (9-12%). Smith is averaging 6.3 targets per game is the most valuable from an ownership perspective (0-1% projection). Shepard (8.1 targets, 2-4% ownership) and Tate (7.8, 2-4%) fall somewhere in the middle.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (GPP)

Keenan Allen projects for 2-4% ownership against a Vikings defense that is ranked 22nd in DVOA to opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Among WRs, Allen is third on DraftKings and 10th on FanDuel in Leverage Plus/Minus.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (GPP)

The narrative surrounding Tom Brady and the Patriots offense is similar to when they were “onto Cincinnati” in 2014 after suffering a loss to the Chiefs, the second straight game their offense failed to score 17 points. How did things turn out? The Patriots hung 43 points on the Bengals, piling up 505 yards of total offense and adding three turnovers and a defensive TD. At 0-1% projected ownership on DraftKings, Brady is popping with the No. 1 Leverage Plus/Minus. The Bengals defense is bottom-five in DVOA versus both the pass and run, so this is also a potential multi-TD spot for Sony Michel (2-4%). Additionally, the Bengals are also allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing DSTs. While Patriots DST is the highest-priced option at the position, it has also outscored every other player on the slate at or below that price on a per-game basis.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (GPP)

As I discussed in our Eagles-Redskins Betting Guide, Terry McLaurin hasn’t been quite as effective with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. That said, McLaurin is still the league leader in air-yard share (43%) and projects to be in fewer than 5% of lineups despite a matchup with an Eagles defense ranked in the bottom three in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (GPP)

With Chris Carson expected to garner top-three ownership among all players on the slate, it naturally sets up well to pivot to the Seahawks passing game in GPPs. Our models give Russell Wilson the top ceiling projection of all QBs on the slate at a fraction of the ownership, with each of his top three receivers expected to carry single-digit ownership rates (Jacob Hollister, 0-1%; Tyler Lockett, 2-4%; D.K. Metcalf, 5-8%).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (GPP)

The Bucs’ top-flight run defense has led to opponents attempting 41.4 passes per game against them, 2.4 more than any other team. David Blough attempted 38 passes in his first start and 40 in his second, and that may not change given the matchup. While Kenny Golladay is expected to be in 13-16% of lineups, Blough (2-4%) projects to go overlooked. The same is true for Jameis WInston (2-4%) relative to Chris Godwin (17-20%). According to our NFL Correlations Dashboard, the Lions’ QB-Opposing QB correlation is +0.54 while the Bucs’ is +0.49.

Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a host of “The Action Network” on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio every Wednesday-Friday at 10 a.m. ET. He also hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.

Pictured above: Seattle Seahawks running back Chris Carson (32)
Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports