In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Patrick Mahomes
- Brock Purdy
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (48.5 total)
Patrick Mahomes‘ last five games have been pedestrian at best, averaging just 15.63 DraftKings points per game and topping 20 points once. He’s topped 30+ DraftKings points just once this year, failing to consistently flash the ceiling that we’ve grown accustomed to.
Buffalo has allowed the 12th-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year, leaving a little bit to be desired in the matchup department. However, they’ve allowed multiple touchdown passes in five of their past six games, and aren’t a unit that gives reason for fear.
Mahomes isn’t projecting for much ownership, currently ranking outside the top five in projected quarterback ownership. This is a great time to buy low on him, as he boasts a ceiling that is rivaled by few.
He’s the top quarterback in our Tournament Model.
Brock Purdy ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-11) vs. Seattle Seahawks (46.5 total)
Brock Purdy and the 49ers absolutely shredded Philadelphia last week. Purdy threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns on just 27 attempts en route to a season-high 32.46 DraftKings points. It’s been smooth sailing for Purdy when playing at home, with over 21 DraftKings points in every home game this season.
He has 23+ DraftKings points in four of his last five games, with his lone dud being against these same Seahawks on Thanksgiving Night.
The important decision is whether you think that game was just an outlier or if Seattle just has Purdy’s number. Purdy destroyed Seattle in last year’s playoff game, attempting 30 passes for 332 yards and three touchdowns while running for another.
I’m more on the side that Week 12 was an outlier and that Purdy will likely shred this defense on Sunday.
He’s the top quarterback in our Cash Game Model, as well as both Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Justin Fields ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (43 total)
Justin Fields didn’t get much going last time out against the Vikings, throwing for 217 yards and running for 59 while losing two fumbles to a total of 12.58 DraftKings points. He had a solid day against this same Lions defense back in Week 11, throwing for 169 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 104. He has over 40 rushing yards in six of eight games on the year, which is very valuable.
This Lions defense has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year and has been trending in the wrong direction. Fields has struggled as a passer but threw for almost 11 yards per attempt back in Week 11.
He’s one of my favorite options this weekend.
Jake Browning ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (44 total)
Jake Browning essentially had the game of his life against Jacksonville, completing 86% of his passes for 354 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 22 yards and a score, posting 29.66 DraftKings points on the day. The Colts don’t get after the quarterback too much, which should bode well for Browning.
He’s completed over 80% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt when not pressured. He has talented playmakers on the outside, so hopefully he can get the ball in their hands once again and cruise to a solid fantasy performance. Browning leads the position in Points/Salary while ranking second in Projected Plus/Minus.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Josh Allen ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (48.5 total)
Josh Allen once again finds himself as my favorite quarterback of the week. The last time we saw him was in Buffalo’s devastating loss to the Eagles, throwing for 339 yards and two touchdowns while running for 81 yards and two more scores. His 43.66 DraftKings points were the most we’ve seen out of him this year and his fourth time above 30 points.
Kansas City has allowed the sixth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks but has suffered injuries as of late and just got shredded by Jordan Love and the Packers last week. I’m a big Jordan Love believer, but he’s no Josh Allen.
Allen and the Bills are in must-win territory, and we’ve seen Allen utilize his legs more in these do-or-die spots. He’s projected to be low-owned, so I’m prepared to go all in.