Nailing the running back spots are essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Rachaad White ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
White is a bit of a polarizing player. His final stats last year were nothing to scoff at – 1,539 scrimmage yards and nine total touchdowns – but the way he got there left a lot to be desired. He was one of the most ineffective runners in football, ranking near the bottom of the league in most efficiency metrics.
That said, we don’t care about efficiency in fantasy football. Volume is king, and White has the kind of volume most runners in this price range can only dream of. He averaged 16.0 carries and 4.1 targets across 17 regular season games last year.
His work in the passing game is particularly valuable. Only eight backs saw more targets than White last season, and he caught 91.4% of them. He was also more productive as a receiver in his second season, increasing his yards per target from 5.0 to 7.8.
White starts the year with a dream matchup vs. the Commanders. They allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position last year, and they allowed the fourth-most targets per game. Overall, White’s +3.2 Opponent Plus/Minus is the third-best mark on the DraftKings main slate.
Speaking of DraftKings, that’s where White is most valuable this week. Not only is it better suited for his skill set, but his $6,300 salary comes with a 95% Bargain Rating. That’s the top mark at the position.
Chuba Hubbard ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
It’s important to find at least one spot to save some salary for cash games, and Hubbard gets the nod this week at RB2. He’s dirt cheap across the industry, and with Johnathon Brooks sidelined, Hubbard should work as the Panthers’ clear top running back.
Hubbard started 2023 behind Miles Sanders on the Panthers’ depth chart, but he overtook him pretty quickly. By the end of the year, Hubbard was a workhorse: He had at least 22 carries in four of his final six games.
Hubbard made the most of his expanded workload, posting a positive Plus/Minus in eight straight games to end the year. He topped out at $6,700 on FanDuel, so his current salary represents a significant discount.
If Hubbard picks up where he left off last year, this price tag is simply too low. He owns the top projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in our NFL Models, and he’s the No. 2 option on DraftKings.
Alvin Kamara ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Kamara isn’t expected to get the same attention as the other two backs – he’s projected for less than 12% ownership across the industry – but that doesn’t mean he’s not an elite option. He’s facing a Panthers’ squad that allowed the sixth-most PPR points to opposing running backs last season.
Kamara will also open the year as a favorite, which is a role he’s historically thrived in. He’s played 77 career games as a favorite, and he’s averaged 21.11 DraftKings points and a +3.61 Plus/Minus in that split (per the Trends tool). Even in a down season, Kamara still managed 18.62 DraftKings points and a +3.43 Plus/Minus as a favorite last season.
Kamara may not be the same player that he was in his prime, but he still commands a massive workload. He had 180 carries and 86 targets in just 13 games last year, good for an average of 20.5 opportunities per contest. Kamara is also significantly cheaper than he was in his prime, and his upside is being significantly discounted by DFS players in Week 1.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Bijan Robinson ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
If you’re paying all the way up for a stud in Week 1, the top back differs by site. On DraftKings, Robinson stands out as the top dog. He owns a slightly better Bargain Rating than Jonathan Taylor, and he edges him out in both median and ceiling projection.
Given his sky-high expectations as a rookie, it’s fair to say that last year was a bit of a disappointment. However, he did average 4.6 yards per attempt – by far the top mark among the Falcons’ running backs. He also averaged 3.4 receptions per game and racked up 86 total targets, so he provides plenty of value as a pass-catcher as well.
Robinson should benefit greatly from the upgrade to Kirk Cousins at quarterback. The Falcons offense was merely 26th in points per game last season, and they should have more scoring opportunities in 2024.
Jonathan Taylor ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
On FanDuel, Taylor gets the nod as the top overall stud running back. His lack of production as a pass-catcher isn’t nearly as detrimental there, and he checks in at a slight discount.
It wasn’t too long ago that Taylor was considered the best running back not named Christian McCaffrey. He led the league with 1,811 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns in 2021, finishing second in Offensive Player of the Year voting. His last two seasons have been cut short by injury, but with Shane Steichen now at the helm, Taylor has the potential for a monster season if healthy. Very few in football are as good at scheming up the run game as Steichen. With Anthony Richardson also a very real threat with his legs, Taylor could see some massive holes in 2024.
If Taylor is back to being “peak JT,” $8,600 is simply too cheap of a price tag. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.85 with a comparable salary.
Aaron Jones ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
Jones is finally gone from Green Bay, where he spent way too much time on the sidelines watching A.J. Dillon. Ironically, the year that he left is the year where Dillon ultimately went down with an injury, so timing might not be his strong suit.
Jones will turn 30 years old this season, but he remains one of the most efficient RBs in all of football. He’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry for his career while providing excellent utility in the passing game, so the thought of him getting bell-cow usage is appealing. Ty Chandler could siphon away some work, but it won’t be nearly as much as he lost to Dillon in Green Bay over the past few years (particularly around the goal line).
Dillon starts his year with a matchup vs. the Giants, which is phenomenal for a few reasons. First, the Giants’ rush defense wasn’t very good last year, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game. Second, it’s the rare spot where the Vikings will be favored in 2024. Jones has historically been at his best in that split, averaging a +2.81 Plus/Minus.
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Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Zamir White ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
One of my favorite ways to find undervalued tournament options is using the new SimLabs tool. It shows how frequently a player shows up in the optimal lineup compared to their projected ownership. The players who have less projected ownership than optimal lineup percentage are being overlooked by the field.
Kamara is the most-overlooked RB on DraftKings per SimLabs, but White is a close second. He’s projected for less than 2% ownership in a solid matchup vs. the Chargers. They allowed the 11th-most PPR points to opposing running backs last season, and White is pretty affordable across the industry.
With Josh Jacobs now in Green Bay, the coast is clear for White to serve as the team’s feature back in 2024. We got a glimpse of him in that role last season, and he rushed for at least 100 yards or scored a touchdown in three of four starts. He has significantly more upside than the field is giving him credit for on Sunday.
D’Andre Swift ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
I don’t blame you if you want to just pretend the Chicago backfield doesn’t exist. They’ve got three players who will likely factor into the equation in Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson. Caleb Williams is also going to be a very popular selection at QB, so most people won’t give the RBs much thought.
That said, only Swift is making $8M this season in the Bears’ backfield. Given how much they gave him in free agency, I’d be pretty surprised if he wasn’t the clear 1A in this backfield. He’s been an efficient runner for most of his career, resulting in a career-high 1,059 yards with the Eagles in 2023.
The Titans aren’t an ideal matchup for running backs, but it’s not like they were great against the run. They were merely 12th in rushing EPA against, but opposing offenses were too busy shredding their offense through the air. Maybe Williams is that dude, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the coaching staff was a bit conservative in his first professional outing.
Raheem Mostert ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
De’Von Achane is going to be pretty chalky on Sunday, checking in with projected ownership above 20% on DraftKings and 18% on FanDuel. However, his optimal lineup rate is nowhere near those levels.
Instead of eating the chalk with Achane, let’s look to his backfield-mate in Mostert. He may not have the same game-changing ability as Achane, but he was the team’s RB1 for most of last season. He responded with 21 total touchdowns and nearly 1,200 scrimmage yards, so he’s a pretty capable producer as well.
Mostert is projected for less than 5% ownership across the industry, and I’ll take that discount every day of the week.
Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)
Occasionally, going as cheap as possible at a position and loading up elsewhere can result in the optimal lineup. McLaughlin seems like the guy if you want to go that direction at running back.
His role is a bit murky behind Javonte Williams, but McLaughlin was the Broncos’ clear best running back in 2023. He averaged nearly two additional yards per carry when compared to Williams – 5.4 vs. 3.6 – and his advanced metrics were also far more impressive. Among running backs with at least 50 carries or 20 targets, he was 14th in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt.
