This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the NFL Wild Card matchup featuring the Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints on Sunday at 1:05 p.m. E.T. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Strategy
Drew Brees has the top median, floor and ceiling projection in our DraftKings Showdown Models, as well as the top Projected Plus/Minus among players above the salary midpoint. With Brees locked in the captain spot, you can also fit Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara if you punt the last two spots with Taysom Hill and Irv Smith.
On FanDuel, you can’t fit all four of Brees, Cook, Kamara and Cousins, so the best move is to pair Brees and Kamara with Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Irv Smith. Cook-Thielen-Smith gives you exposure to three of the top four targets in the Vikings passing game in lieu of Cousins, and the one player you would be fading (Stefon Diggs) has a tough matchup against Marshon Lattimore.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers, though sometimes players from the cash section will be re-highlighted as appropriate. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
WR Michael Thomas, Saints: Thomas has d-digit catches in 9-of-16 games, including seven of Brees’ 10 healthy starts. Our models peg Thomas’ ceiling as 6 points higher than Kamara’s. This is also a tough matchup for Jared Cook, as the Vikings ran No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA vs. tight ends, so Thomas should be in for another monster workload.
Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Thomas
RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings: Cook had 20-plus DraftKings points in 7-of-13 games before getting hurt. Our models give him a 4.5-point edge in ceiling over Diggs and an 8.5-point edge over Thielen.
Correlations/Stacks
Note: Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. Unless otherwise noted, all player correlation data is from the past 12 months and team correlation data is from the start of 2019.
Saints
- Brees-J.Hill +0.74
- Brees-J.Cook +0.50
- Brees-Thomas +0.47
- Thomas-J.Cook +0.47
- Brees-Murray +0.44
- Brees-Ginn +0.41
- Brees-T.Smith +0.36
- Kamara-Saints DST +0.29
- Brees-Kamara +0.07
- Kamara-J.Cook -0.08
- Kamara-Thomas -0.09
- Brees-Lutz -0.16
- Kamara-Murray -0.16
- Brees-T.Hill -0.18
- Brees-Saints DST -0.20
- Thomas-T.Smith -0.34
- Thomas-Saints DST -0.51
Kamara-Saints DST is the highest-leverage pivot off Thomas; you have to hope Kamara gets the TDs and the Saints are also to get one on defense or special teams, which would steal a drive from the offense.
Vikings
- I.Smith-Rudolph +0.64
- Cousins-Rudolph +0.58
- I.Smith-Johnson +0.56
- Cousins-Johnson +0.51
- Cousins-Diggs +0.47
- D.Cook-Thielen +0.47
- Cousins-I.Smith +0.42
- Rudolph-Johnson +0.37
- Cousins-Thielen +0.36
- Diggs-Thielen 0.00
- Cook-Mattison 0.00
- Cousins-Bailey -0.01
- Cousins-D.Cook -0.02
- D.Cook-Diggs -0.26
- Cousins-Vikings DST -0.27
- Cousins-Mattison -0.36
- D.Cook-Vikings DST -0.39
Kyle Rudolph (11), Irv Smith (10) and Olabisi Johnson (7) rank 1-2-3 in red-zone targets for the Vikings this season and have combined to account for 57% of Minnesota’s total. Given that none are great bets for yardage and the way pricing beaks down, all three make good pairings with not only Cousins, but also Cook.
Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Rudolph
Leverage Plays
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
RB Latavius Murray, Saints: Murray is averaging 8.4 touches per game with Kamara active and has a -0.16 correlation with him.
RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings: Mattison is averaging 8.5 touches per game with Cook active and has a -0.36 correlation with him.
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- QB/TE Taysom Hill, Saints: Six touchdown catches and a touchdown run on the season.
- TE Irv Smith Jr., Vikings: No. 2 on the slate in Projected Plus/Minus and ran more routes than Rudolph over Weeks 12-16.
- WR Tre’Quan Smith, Saints: Has taken over as the No. 2 WR for Ted Ginn.
- TE Kyle Rudolph, Vikings: 2.1/20.8/0.20 in 10 games with Thielen compared to 3.6/31.8/0.80 with Thielen out.
- TE Josh Hill, Saints: Second on the team with 12 red-zone targets.
- WR Ted Ginn, Saints: Has fallen behind Smith over the past three weeks, running a route on fewer than 50% of his team’s dropbacks in each of the past three games.
- WR Olabisi Johnson, Vikings: Really the sixth option with Minnesota employing more two tight end sets.
- FB C.J.Ham, Vikings: Liable to vulture Cook and see a target or two.
- WR Deonte Harris, Saints: Speedy return man unlikely to run more than a route or two.
- RB Ameer Abdullah, Vikings: Falls back down to third on the depth chart with Mattison back.
- RB Michael Boone, Vikings: Falls to fourth with Mattison back.
- FB Ricky Ortiz, Saints: Will fill the Zach Line (knee, out) role if active, meaning one touch and a vulture TD is the best you can hope for.
- WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Saints: No. 5 receiver unlikely to see snaps.
- WR Alexander Hollins, Vikings: No. 4 receiver with Laquon Treadwell inactive but unlikely to see snaps on offense.
