The final week of the USFL regular season is upon us, with a slate of games that will have no bearing on the postseason whatsoever. Some of the top players may rest, particularly for the teams who’ve clinched postseason bids. That would be the Generals, Stars, Stallions, and Breakers. Some of their key players could see reductions in roles, particularly with no bye weeks in the schedule.
Unlike in the NFL, I’d expect most of the usual starters to continue to see the field for the eliminated teams, though. Playing for the USFL is effectively just a way to get tape down for NFL scouts, and that doesn’t change when your team is eliminated. This could prove not to be the case, but we’ll be proceeding as if eliminated teams are behaving as normal this week — with exceptions noted when applicable.
Of course, the title of this article is a bit tongue-in-cheek. For DFS players, this week has just as much at stake as any other.
Lineup construction is different with the USFL than for NFL DFS. Only six offensive players make the roster, with one quarterback, one running back, two WR/TE spots, and two flexes. That means we don’t have to roster a tight end and can load up on high-upside wide receivers. It also means tight ends will be much lower owned, which could be an edge.
The scoring system is carried over from the NFL, with the lone exception being three-point conversions counting for…three fantasy points. Yes, the USFL has three-point PATs, which are attempted from the 10-yard line.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at who our models like at each position.
USFL DFS Quarterbacks
Top Pick
Jordan Ta’amu ($11,600): Tampa Bay Bandits (+3.5) vs. Birmingham Stallions
Ta’Amu and the Bandits have nothing left to play for but pride as they look to finish the season .500 with a win against the Stallions. My assumption would be a full workload for Ta’Amu, the USFL’s leading quarterback, from a points per game standpoint. He’s hit double-figured in scoring in eight of the Bandits’ nine games.
It’s a tough matchup on paper with Birmingham, who have been the second-toughest team for quarterback scoring while allowing the second-fewest points in the league. However, Birmingham has their playoff position locked up, so it’s possible they rest some defensive starters in this one.
As always, Ta’Amu is the safest pick at quarterback, leading our models in median projection. He also provides upside courtesy of his legs, running for 86 yards last week. While I expect his ownership to lead the slate this week, he might just be worth it, given the situation for Birmingham.
Tournament Pick
Alex McGough ($7,200): Birmingham Stallions (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits
Our models currently have Birmingham quarterback J’Mar Smith ($10,800) as the expected starter, but it’s likelier to be McGough in this one. He was activated to the roster on Friday for the first time since Week 6 while also missing weeks 2 and 3.
McGough was the first quarterback drafted for the Stallions but was supplanted by Smith as the starter after his injuries. They split time while both healthy in week 5, but one of the two has been inactive or left early in their other games.
It makes sense for Birmingham to get a look at McGough this week, though. This game is meaningless for them, and they have a decision to make at quarterback in the playoffs if both passers stay healthy. At $7,200, he’s a tremendous value if he can approach the 15ish points we have Smith projected for. Ownership should be minimal as well, with there being a fair amount of risk as to whether he starts or not.
Kenji Bahar ($6,300): Houston Gamblers (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Breakers
Bahar is projected for the third-most points at quarterback this week, despite coming in at only $6,300 in salary. He fairly easily leads our models in Pts/Sal, though McGough would make it close if he were given Smith’s projections.
Bahar has been solid since taking over as a starter, with accurate (but short) passing and some reasonable rushing upside. He’s added 85 yards on the ground over two games but has yet to find the endzone with his legs.
The Gamblers are another team playing for pride against an opponent somewhat likely to rest starters to an extent. USFL rosters aren’t deep enough to allow for full weeks off for starting defenders, but they could see their snaps limited. Bahar probably needs a rushing touchdown to access any upside here, but that’s the case for most USFL quarterbacks. He’s shown an ability to run the ball, so his odds are as good as any.
USFL DFS Running Backs
Top Picks
Darius Victor ($9,500): New Jersey Generals (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia Stars
The Stars and Generals have an interesting matchup, with these teams set to face each other in the first round of the playoffs regardless of the outcome of their Week 10 game. That makes projecting usage extremely tricky, as logic would suggest both teams want to limit starter reps and their playbook ahead of the more meaningful game.
With that said, Victor ranks second in the USFL in rushing yards and attempts on the season, while leading easily with nine touchdowns. He’s the best pure runner in the USFL and has mixed in for just over two targets per game from Week 3 on.
It’s also a strong matchup, with the Stars ranking seventh in the USFL in fantasy scoring allowed to running backs, with the league’s worst scoring defense. Victor leads our projections, primarily based on his past performance. Volume is a concern though, so I’d be happy to fade him if he ends up highly owned.
Matt Colburn ($10,000): Philadelphia Stars (+2.5) vs. New Jersey Generals
Colburn is in an identical situation as Victor, with this game being meaningless for both teams. His seven rushing touchdowns trail only Victor’s nine, with no other player scoring more than four. He’s the more productive pass catcher, with 25 targets in eight games on the season while splitting time with Paul Terry (inactive) and Darnell Holland ($6,900).
With Terry inactive, Holland and Colburn are the only available backs for the Generals in Week 10. It’s unlikely they hand it off to Holland 30+ times in this one, so Colburn should see close to his normal workload. With New Jersey set to carry three backs, Colburn should have more opportunity than Victor.
That, coupled with his more robust passing game role, makes Colburn my preferred option at the top of the running back ranks. Ownership will likely be somewhat even between the pair, but Colburn brings more upside. He trails only Victor in our models for median and ceiling projection.
Tournament Pick
Stevie Scott ($5,600) Michigan Panthers (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers
“The fighting Jeff Fisher’s” (shoutout to Ian Hartitz) have been the USFL’s most disappointing team, compiling a 1-8 record despite having the first overall pick in the draft. It’s surprising to see them favored in Week 10, but less so when you consider their opponent: the also 1-8 Maulers.
Michigan has been heavily committed to the run this season and should be able to continue that if they are in control of this one. Pittsburgh has allowed the most scoring to running backs of any USFL team, including a combined 39.8 points to three Panthers backs in Week 3 — Michigan’s only win this season.
This time, only Scott and Cameron Scarlett ($4,500) will be active. Scarlett is more of a third-down back, handling just 45 carries in nine games to go with 22 targets. With starter Reggie Corbin (inactive) missing time, this is a tremendous opportunity for Scott to carry the mail and get some tape down for NFL scouts.
We currently have Scott + Corbin projected for 17.97 points, which would easily lead the position. While I don’t think Scott absorbs 100% of the touches vacated by Corbin, he should see the bulk of them. In an extremely generous matchup, he’s a fantastic play at a reasonable price.
USFL DFS Pass-Catchers
Top Picks
Victor Bolden ($10,600): Birmingham Stallions (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits
Bolden is another Stallion who looks very good on paper but could potentially have a lighter load in a meaningless game. On the other hand, if they want to give McGough a serious tryout to be the quarterback of the playoffs, he’ll need his full complement of weapons in Week 10.
The latter scenario is probably more likely, making Bolden a solid Week 10 play. He ranks second in both targets and receptions in the USFL this season, behind only Lance Lenoir. Both receivers run similar short-area routes, leading to just one touchdown each.
Bolden has far better quarterback play, though, making him the better-projected option for Week 10. He leads our models in median and ceiling projections at the position.
Derrick Dillon ($4,800): Tampa Bay Bandits (+3.5) vs. Birmingham Stallions
Dillon is a fairly boom-or-bust option for the Bandits, but he’s far too cheap for his upside. He’s averaging just over four targets per game but has 13.2 and 26.5 point games on his boxscores. Those are intermixed with a lot of low single-digit days, but the potential is there.
He also handles returns for the Bandits, giving him some sneaky upside and correlation with the Bandits’ defense. That’s an interesting angle this week, with Birmingham potentially resting offensive pieces. He’s a risky play, but he trails only Bolden in our models at $4,800, making him a strong value and a cheap lottery ticket.
Tournament Picks
Marlon Williams ($6,700): Birmingham Stallions (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits
Williams has 53 targets through eight games, significantly less than team leader Bolden (74). However, his catches have produced more than six additional yards than Boldens, and he has three touchdowns to Bolden’s one.
Williams also drew 12 targets in each of the last two games he was active in, so if he can marry his explosiveness with an increased target share, he’s in line for a huge week. Tampa Bay’s defense is stingy to wideouts, though, allowing the least points in the USFL.
Williams is far from a safe pick, especially since his spiked weeks in terms of targets have come with Smith under center. Smith could still be the starter this week, though, or McGough could end up looking his way. He’s an interesting tournament option.
Johnnie Dixon ($8,900) and Jonathon Adams ($7,900): New Orleans Breakers (-3.5) vs. Houston Gamblers
Dixon (third) and Adams (sixth) continue to rank near the top of the USFL in targets, with Adams taking more of a downfield role. The touchdown split is fairly even, though, with four for Dixon and three for Adams.
The quarterback situation makes things difficult, though, with the USFL’s leading passer Kyle Sloter ($11,200), rotating snaps with back Zach Smith ($6,000) in Week 9. Smith was far more efficient, picking up 8.5 yards per attempt last week to Sloter’s 3.4.
A week away from the playoffs is a rough time for a quarterback controversy, but at least New Orleans can use Week 10 as a tryout of sorts for their signal-callers. That should benefit Jon and Johnnie since New Orleans may continue to pass deep into this one.
I prefer the downfield role of Adams, especially if Smith is under center. Both are solid plays, though, ranking fourth and fifth in our projections.
Lance Lenoir ($9,700): Michigan Panthers (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers
Lenoir has largely disappointed relative to his volume this season, leading the league in targets and receptions but failing to score a touchdown all season. This week is his last chance to change that, with his Panthers favored in the highest total game of the week.
Michigan has opened up their offense post-Shea Patterson, with committee quarterbacks Josh Love ($6,800) and Eric Barriere ($6,500) combining for 45 pass attempts last week. Paxton Lynch ($6,600) was a healthy scratch last week but added 40 attempts of his own in Week 8.
The uncertain quarterback situation makes Lenoir the best route to target the Panthers passing attack, which has been reasonably productive as of late. His median projection trails only Bolden’s and Dillon’s in our model.
USFL DFS Defenses
Outside of the Dillon-Tampa Bay ($3,900) connection, which is somewhat based on Birmingham resting starters, a few defenses stand out. Birmingham ($5,300) is the top option in our models, thanks to the mistake-prone offense of Tampa Bay. Tampa has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season in the USFL.
New Orleans ($4,600) checks in behind the Bandits. They’re the second-highest scoring unit in the USFL to date, with a reasonably soft matchup against Houston. While they aren’t projecting as well, Michigan ($3,600) are also interesting. They shut out the Maulers in their last meeting, and Pittsburgh has been terrible offensively this season.
