This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Alex Wood: Pitcher, Dodgers
Wood presents a dilemma. He’s one of the most expensive pitchers on the slate, but he has a state-leading opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs, and his moneyline odds of -175 make him a significant favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, moneyline odds, and opponent implied team totals have been strong values on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
The concerns are his pedestrian strikeout metrics and peripheral stats against the Marlins. Their projected lineup has struck out in only 19.2% of at-bats against left-handers over the past month, and Wood’s K Prediction of 4.3 is one of the worst marks on the slate. His short-term Statcast data also gives pause, given that he has 15-day/12-month distance and exit velocity differentials of +28 feet and +3 mph. It will be interesting to see if DFS players prioritize his Vegas data or peripheral statistics.
Max Kepler: Outfielder, Twins
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. In this 14-game slate, a top five-man DraftKings stack in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Twins, implied for 4.7 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard):
The Twins will face Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty, who is making his return from Triple-A and has struggled with a 1.50 WHIP in just 10 innings played this season.
Max Kepler, projected to hit third, is one of the highest-rated batters in the slate, with strong Statcast data and a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +51. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied team totals, and Statcast data have produced a Plus/Minus of +0.72, and similar RBBLs boost the Plus/Minus to +1.84.
Pete Kozma: Second Baseman/Shortstop, Tigers
Team Value Rating (TVR) is a FantasyLabs metric that measures which teams offer the most value based on their implied team totals and player salaries. No team on today’s DraftKings slate has a higher TVR than the Tigers at 82:
Detroit is outside the top tier of implied totals today with only 4.4 runs, so the Tigers could have reduced ownership in a favorable matchup against Indians righty Josh Tomlin, who has a troublesome 1.42 WHIP and 2.338 HR/9 over the past year.
Meanwhile, Kozma has performed well since his call-up from Triple-A, sporting a recent average distance of 217 feet, exit velocity of 90 mph, and fly-ball rate of 50%. He’s cheap at $2,600 on DraftKings with an 81% Bargain Rating and projected to hit second. Historically, similarly priced hitters with comparable lineup spots and Statcast and Vegas data have averaged a +1.11 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Pete Kozma
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
