While there’s still plenty of golf left in 2024, including the FedExCup playoffs and the full fall series, this week is the final major championship of the year, and the best players in the world are headed to Royal Troon in Scotland for a chance to claim a career-defining victory.
So far this year, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Bryson DeChambeau have won the three majors, and all three will be in the field this week as well. Last year’s winner at The Open Championship, Brian Harman, will be back to defend his title, and every player in the OWGR top 50 will join him except for Cam Davis, who moved into the top 50 after the deadline. From LIV GOLF, there are 17 players in the field, including Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson, who ran away from the field in the last event held on this course in 2016. In all, there will be 158 golfers in this week’s field, with the top 70 and ties making the cut and playing Saturday and Sunday.
The course awaiting the field is one of the most well-known in The Open Championship rotation and will be hosting this event for the 10th time. Most recently, it hosted the 2016 Open Championship won by Stenson over Mickelson in a two-man breakaway. The course has a reputation as one of Scotland’s greatest links courses, so players with a good history at links-style events should shine. The front nine typically plays downwind with birdie opportunities before the turn sets up a difficult finish into the wind back towards the clubhouse. The unpredictable variables of weather, terrain, and difficult lies can create frustration for some of the best players in the world and open opportunities for some surprising results.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Rory McIlroy $11,400
Rory has the second-highest salary on the board this week, behind only Scheffler’s, and has the third-highest ownership projection behind Scottie and Xander Schauffele. He still makes sense for GPP, though, since his Perfect% is the second-highest in the field, and he brings the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the entire field.
In the last major, Rory did everything he needed to win the U.S. Open except making a few short putts down the stretch. While the loss was a brutal one, he still finished second in a stronger DFS showing than other big names. He took extended time off before returning last week at the Scottish Open, where he posted four rounds of 68 or better and finished T4. Rory finished T15 or better in seven straight starts dating back to when he won the Zurich Classic and the Wells Fargo Championship. He leads the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 24 rounds and is second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
McIlroy deserves his reputation as a links specialist and has seven career top 10s at The Open, including his win in 2014. He finished T5 at Royal Troon in 2016 and T5 last year after a solo third in 2022.
His consistency and track record on similar courses indicate that even if he doesn’t win, he should be right in the mix on Sunday. It would be great to see him bounce back and get his first major since 2014, but his recent near-misses will definitely be a big storyline this week. Playing him instead of Scottie saves $1,400 in salary and gets you lower projected ownership by almost 5%.
Collin Morikawa $9,900
Morikawa is another top player whose elite game translates perfectly to links layouts. His creativity and ball striking helped him win The Open at Royal St. George’s three years ago, and even though he missed the cut in his two Open Championships since then, I expect him to contend for another turn with the Claret Jug this week.
In each of the three majors this season, Morikawa finished in the top 15. He has an impressive 13 top 25s in his 17 tournaments this season and has only missed the cut two times all year and not even once since March. He finished in the top five at the PGA Championship, the Charles Schwab Challenge, and the Memorial Tournament, where he almost took down Scheffler. After top 15s at the U.S. Open and Travelers, he showed off his links game with a T4 last week at The Renaissance Club.
Over his last 30 rounds, Morikawa ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained and in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also leads the field in Strokes Gained: Short Game and his putter has come around since a switch to a mallet at Augusta in April.
Morikawa has the third-highest SimLeverage in the field this week since he has the fourth-highest Perfect% and only the sixth-highest ownership projection. Like Rory, he has the pedigree of an Open Champion and is coming at low enough ownership to be a good option to pay up for this week.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tony Finau $8,700
Finau has the second-highest Perfect% and the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all the players under $9,000. While his SimLeverage is negative (like most players in this price range) his ownership projection under 14% makes him an especially strong play for GPP lineups.
While he hasn’t won since April of 2023, Finau has been quietly posting very strong results in 2024. He has made the cut in 16 of his 17 events with 11 top 25s and five top 10s. He finished in the top 20 at the PGA Championship and the top five at the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship in his two most recent tournaments.
Finau has a strong career record in majors as well, with top 10s in 11-of-33 career major championships and six made cuts in his seven trips to The Open. He finished T18 at Royal Troon in 2016, which was his first career Open appearance.
Over his last 30 rounds, Finau ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, behind just Scheffler, and he ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over that time span. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach at the U.S. Open, and if he can replicate that performance this week, he has a great chance at getting a first major title.
Wyndham Clark $8,000
Last week, I picked Clark in this spot, and honestly, I didn’t love the pick until Sunday, when the 30-year-old caught fire in the final round in Scotland and shot a 62 to vault up to a top 10 finish. It was his second straight top 10 after a T9 at the Travelers Championship, where he closed with a 63 on Sunday.
Despite coming off those successes and his strong track record at recent majors, Clark’s ownership projection is under 8% this week–thank you! He has the third-highest Perfect% of the 147 players under $9,000 and the highest SimLeverage of all players between $6,500 and $9,500.
Clark won the U.S. Open last year and finished T33 at The Open Championship. He won a Signature Event at Pebble Beach this season and finished runner-up to Scheffler at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship. Clark struggled for a while after THE PLAYERS due to a back injury, but he has looked back in top form in his last two tournaments.
While the “play Wyndham in the wind” maxim may seem a little cliche, he’s been able to excel in less-than-ideal conditions on tough courses, so if this week turns into that kind of slog, he could end up as one of the top plays on the board. His ownership projection is extremely low given the win equity and value he offers at $8,000.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Justin Thomas $7,400
Of the 18 golfers in the $7,000s, Thomas has the top Perfect% and the second-highest SimLeverage. His ownership projection is under 8% and only the eighth-highest in this price bracket. Thomas missed the cut at last year’s Open Championship but made the cut in each of the previous three tournaments, highlighted by a T11 at Royal Portrush.
Thomas has two career major wins at the PGA Championship and 15 wins on the PGA TOUR. He had a miserable season last year but has bounced back this year overall, with 11 made cuts and eight top 25s in 15 events. He finished last year 71st in FedExCup points but is up to 17th in the current standings.
Last week, Thomas switched putters and started the Scottish Open scalding hot with an opening 62 that put him in the lead. The rest of the week wasn’t great and he sunk to 62nd but still exceeded salary-based expectations for the second straight tournament and proved he can go low on courses like The Renaissance Club and Royal Troon.
Before crossing the pond, JT finished T5 at the Travelers Championship and was also recently in the top 10 at the PGA Championship and the RBC Heritage. Over the last 50 rounds, Thomas ranks in the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach while ranking fifth in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. If his new putter fires all week, it could be the last piece to his comeback.
Akshay Bhatia $7,000
Bhatia broke through for his first PGA TOUR win at the Barracuda Championship opposite last season’s Open Championship, but this year, he’s teeing it up with the big boys for his first British Open. Bhatia has the second-highest Perfect% and the fifth-highest SimLeverage in the $7,000s. He’s in the middle of the group in his overall projections, so getting him at the bottom of the price range means he represents strong value, as indicated by his Projected Plus/Minus, which is the third-highest in this price bracket.
Bhatia added another win to his resume this season by claiming the Valero Texas Open in impressive fashion. He stayed hot after that event, making the cut in 11 of his last 13 starts and exceeding salary-based expectations in five straight. He has shown he can contend on tough courses in excellent fields, finishing in the top 20 at RBC Heritage, the U.S. Open, and the Travelers Championship. He was in contention at the Rocket Mortage Classic in his most recent event as well but came up just one shot short of a playoff.
Over his last 16 rounds, Bhatia ranks in the top 10 in this elite field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks in the top five in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Putting. His longer-term form is also impressive since he ranks in the top 10 in the field in Total Strokes Gained and top 15 in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 50 rounds.
Bhatia is a sleeper with great upside in his Open Championship debut, and his ownership projection remaining under 8% makes him a strong leverage play.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Rasmus Hojgaard $6,500
Hojgaard has the eighth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all golfers under $7,000, along with the eighth-highest Projected Plus/Minus and eighth-highest Pts/Sal. There are 122 players under $7,000, and the group includes some well-known names like Sungjae Im ($6,900), Adam Scott ($6,700), Louis Oosthuizen ($6,800) and Davis Thompson ($6,900) who each have high ownership projections. If you’re looking for a lower ownership projection that still makes lots of sense, Hojgaard is a great option at barely over 3%.
The 23-year-old is the cheaper of the Hojgaard twins this week and comes in with good momentum after three straight top 25s, including a T21 last week at the Scottish Open, where he was in the top five going into the weekend.
Hojgaard has battled some injuries throughout the season but does match more Pro Trends than any other play under $7,000 this week. He is sixth on the DP World Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting and showed good links prowess last week. Getting him at this salary and ownership projection makes him a strong leverage play.
Matteo Manassero $5,400
The 31-year-old Italian has been authoring an amazing comeback story this season on the DP World Tour, and he’s still extremely affordable despite his recent momentum. He started his career by being the youngest-ever winner of the British Amateur Championship and the youngest player ever to make the cut at the Masters (at the time). He was also the youngest-ever winner on the European Tour when he won in 2010, piling up four career wins by 2013. Things went south for him at that point, though, and he faded from contention and slipped all the way to No. 1,805 in the OWGR competing on the Alps Tour and Challenge Tour.
He returned to contention this season on the DP World Tour with three top-10 finishes and a win at the Jonsson Workwear Open in South Africa, which broke a nearly 11-year drought. Following that win in March, he has stayed hot and made the cut in seven of his nine events on the DP World Tour, including six top 25s and last week’s T15 in Scotland.
Of all the players in the entire field, Manassero has the second-highest SimLeverage this week, behind only Jon Rahm. His ownership projection is remarkably low, under 0.5%, and his Perfect% is the highest of any player with a salary of $6,000 or lower. He’s making a push to earn PGA TOUR eligibility through his DP World Tour season, and the comeback story could continue this week if he can carry over last week’s momentum.
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