The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
With the U.S. Open coming to a close, this field is still pretty strong with three of the top 10 in FedExCup standings competing, along with five of the top 10 in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR).
Let’s dive in.
The Course
You can read my full breakdown of TPC River Highlands here.
Key metrics to focus on: Par-4 and par-5 scoring, greens in regulation, birdie scoring, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
Best DFS Plays for the 2019 Travelers Championship
$10,000 and Above (DraftKings Pricing)
If there is someone in this price range I am going to roster in cash games or go overweight on in tournaments, it’s just going to be Brooks Koepka ($11,300 DraftKings; $12,600 FanDuel) or Patrick Cantlay ($11,300 DraftKings; $11,500 FanDuel).
Koepka leads the field with his -1.7 adjusted strokes on par 4s over the past 75 weeks and ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Ball-Striking over his past 50 rounds.
Cantlay isn’t far behind with his -1.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s, including ranking ninth from 400-450 yards. Furthermore, Cantlay fifth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and first in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
That said, I think the optimal build is to start your roster below this pricing tier.
$9,900-$9,000 Range
I’m still intrigued by Justin Thomas ($9,800 DraftKings; $11,200 FanDuel) while he remains this cheap. He leads the field with his 67.9 LT Adj Rd Score, 16.7 birdies per tournament and -6.3 adjusted strokes on par 5s. Not to mention his -1.6 adjusted strokes on par 4s ranks inside the top two.
While there are some concerns with his recent form, Thomas has still gained strokes on approach in two of his past three tournaments, but his putter has struggled big time, losing 2.7, 3.4 and 3.0 strokes putting over the same time frame. He’s historically been a great putter and at some point, those numbers should progress back in his favor.
Paul Casey ($9,500 DraftKings; $11,300 FanDuel) is a good fit here since he ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and fifth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, and he’s performed well at River Highlands in the past, finishing second, fifth, 17th, second over his last four appearances, resulting in a 67.6 Course Adj Rd Score.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,300 DraftKings; $10,700 FanDuel) is always in play for me when Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee is a key metric. He’s lost strokes off the tee just twice this year so far and ranks 11th over his past 50 rounds.
I’ll have some exposure to Bryson DeChambeau ($9,200 DraftKings; $10,800 FanDuel) after he gained 4.4 strokes on approach at the U.S. Open. DeChambeau has hit a cold streak for a bit, but he’s been solid over his past 50 rounds, ranking 13th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and ninth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. He’s had success here in the past, finishing ninth in 2018 and making the cut in all three appearances. His 68.5 LT and Course Adj Rd Score are among the best marks in the field. This could be a spot where he starts to turn a corner for the better.
$8,900-$8,000
This week, I’m skipping past most guys in this range and just keying in on a few guys.
Jason Kokrak ($8,300 DraftKings; $9,300 FanDuel) still hasn’t missed a cut since the British Open last July. His 14.5 birdies per tournament is among the best marks in this price range, only Patrick Reed’s 14.6 is more. Kokrak should be able to fare well on these par 4s as his -0.2 adjusted strokes on them ranks inside the top 20, and he ranks 15th in par-4 efficiency from 400-450 yards. Kokrak has had a few weeks off with his last appearance at Memorial in early June, and he’ll enter this tournament ranking second in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 10th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
Kevin Streelman ($8,200 DraftKings; $9,500 FanDuel) has been red-hot of late, boasting a 67.7 recent Adj Rd Score. And over his past 24 rounds, he ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and a respectable 25th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
$7,900-$7,000
Emiliano Grillo ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,900 FanDuel) will likely be one of the highest-owned golfers, but for good reason. For starters, Grillo carries a 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score, which is the 11th-best LT Adj Rd Score in the field, but he’s priced as the No. 22 golfer. Grillo’s LT Adj Rd Score is the same as Jordan Spieth and Reed, who cost $2,800 and $600 more than Grillo on DraftKings.
The par 4s are right inside Grillo’s wheelhouse as he ranks eighth in par-4 efficiency from 400-450 yards, and he ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over the same time frame.
Viktor Hovland ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) could also garner some attention as he makes his debut as a professional. The 21-year-old dominated at the U.S. Open, finishing 12th while gaining 5.7 strokes off the tee and 5.5 strokes on approach.
I’m slightly worried about Byeong-Hun An’s ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) efficiency on par 4s, but he’s still been solid with his 69.1 LT Adj Rd Score, which is the 13th-best mark in the field, and he’s priced as the No. 23 golfer. He’s also been striking the ball well, ranking 14th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
None of Adam Hadwin’s ($7,600 DraftKings; $9,500 FanDuel) metrics stand out, but like An, he’s priced outside the top 20 and carries a top-15 LT Adj Rd Score. The same thing can be said for Keegan Bradley ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel), but I worry about his 1.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s. I’d reserve Bradley just four tournaments because he’s still an excellent ball-striker but slightly lacks off the tee. Overall, Keegs made the cut here every year since 2012 but has finished 25th or worse in five of his seven appearances.
Golfers priced outside the top 20 on DraftKings for the Travelers Championship with top-15 Long-Term Adjusted Round Scores:
Emiliano Grillo ($7,900): 68.9
Adam Hadwin ($7,600): 69.1
Keegan Bradley ($7,700): 69.1
Byeong-Hun An ($7,800): 69.1— Justin Bailey (@justinbailey32) June 18, 2019
Joaquin Niemann ($7,500 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel) ranks inside the top 12 with his -0.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s, and he’s been solid over his past 50 rounds off the tee and with his ball-striking, ranking 24th and 17th.
$6,900 and Below
We only have a small sample size on Colin Morikawa ($6,900 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel), but he finished 14th at the Canadian Open and 35th last week at the U.S. Open. He also boasts the highest odds to win in this price range, along with a 68.6 recent Adj Rd Score over his last two tournaments.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Note: Strokes Gained and efficiency data via Fantasy National.
Pictured above: Bryson DeChambeau
Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
