PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at The Genesis Invitational

The PGA TOUR returns to California this week for The Genesis Invitational, which has been played at Riviera Country Club (par 71, 7,322 yards, poa greens) since 1983. While the course remains the same, for the first time, the Genesis will be a field of only 70 golfers. Plus, there will be a different cut, with the top-50 and ties moving on after the first two rounds, as well as any player that is within 10 shots of the lead. All in all, very few golfers will be missing the cut this week.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for the Genesis Invitational

Collin Morikawa ($9,500)

Morikawa is an incredible value at this sub-$10,000 salary. The two-time major winner boasts the second highest Perfect% in our PGA Models but is only the sixth-most expensive option DraftKings. Morikawa has carded a top-15 finish in six of his last nine starts, including a win at the Zozo Championship in October, which he followed up with a T5 at the Sentry his next time out. The California native has finished T2 and T6 in his last two appearances at the Genesis and ranks second in SG: Approach when we compare this field’s long-term form in our PGA Models, which bodes extremely well for a second-shot like course Riviera.

Each of the last two winners at this par 71 has led their fields in SG: Approach and Morikawa’s elite ball striking should lead him to a top-five finish this weekend.

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Tony Finau ($8,900)

Finau has made six straight cuts at Riviera and contended during two of these starts, finishing runner-up in 2018 and 2021. The veteran returns to the famous track riding a six-made cut streak, most notably with a T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open three weeks ago. Finau’s ball striking has been excellent during this streak – he has gained strokes on approach in all but one of these six starts – and he ranks second in par-5 efficiency when we compare this field’s long-term form in our PGA Models. For three years running, the Genesis champion has finished the tournament top-five in par-5 efficiency at Riviera.

This feels like a breakout spot for Finau, and he is a great high-end value at this price point, which is a $600 decrease from his salary for last year’s Genesis. While only the 11^th most expensive golfer on DraftKings this week, Finau carries the sixth best Perfect% in our PGA models.

J.T. Poston ($7,800)

Poston let us down and missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open last week, but we have to right back to him at this affordable salary, which is a huge $1,100 decrease from last week. While he missed the weekend at TPC Scottsdale, Poston was only one stroke short of the cutline. Furthermore, the 30-year-old still gained strokes on approach during his two rounds. Poston ranks 11^th in SG: Approach when we analyze this field’s last 24 rounds. Before the WM Phoenix Open, he was on a sensational run of golf, making 13 consecutive cuts with eight finishes of T11 or better during this stretch.

Poston sits 19 spots higher in the world golf rankings than he did heading into last year’s Genesis, and at this event, he owns a 4-for-6 record in terms of made cuts and has produced three top-30 finishes. Despite being the 24^th most-expensive golfer on DraftKings this week, Poston carries the sixth-best Perfect%, making him an elite value. As an added bonus, Poston is expected to come with single-digit ownership.

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Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,800)

This will be Hojgaard’s Genesis debut, but he has all the tools to succeed at this venue. Hojgaard is playing the best golf of his career, missing only one cut in his last 14 starts worldwide. The Danish professional has racked up six top-six finishes during this span, including a victory at the DP World Tour Championship in November and more recently with a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open three weeks ago. Hojgaard has collectively gained strokes on approach and with his putter in back-to-back starts, and it’s worth noting that both of these starts came at courses that feature poa putting surfaces, just like Riviera.

Hojgaard’s elite combination of strong play with both his irons and flat stick should translate into success at Riviera, and he is one of the better values on the board at this reasonable salary, which is the cheapest he has been in 10 starts. Hojgaard is only the 24^th most expensive golfer on DraftKings this week but presents the 15th-best Perfect% in our PGA Models.