This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the AFC Wild Card matchup featuring the Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots at 8:15 p.m. E.T. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Strategy
As you would expect of a 42-year-old quarterback with one receiver who can reliably separate from coverage, Tom Brady has produced disappointing box-score results on a near weekly basis, but he still owns the top median, floor, and ceiling projection in our DraftKings Showdown Models, as well as the top Projected Plus/Minus among players above the salary midpoint. Though Brady proved he’s not exactly dead yet with a 26-of-33, 271-yard, one-touchdown performance with no turnovers against Buffalo’s top-tier pass defense two weeks ago to clinch the AFC East and is going up against a Titans pass defense ranked 21st in schedule-adjusted efficiency, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, Brady’s standing on this slate has more to do with his team’s league-best defense. The floor is simply lower for the more expensive Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry against a defense that allowed the fewest passing TDs (13) and tied for the fewest rushing TDs (7).
Going with Brady in the Captain spot over Tannehill or Henry allows you to still fit in the latter two along with Sony Michel with $4,600 left for the last two spots. The optimal way to employ those dollars is to roster two of the top three values on the slate according to our models in Nick Folk, who has scored at least 9 points in four of his last six games, and Anthony Firkser, who has run a route on 35-44% of dropbacks in each of the past three weeks.
On FanDuel, pricing forces you to fade one of the starting QBs or RBs. Despite being the second-most expensive player, Tannehill registers the lowest floor projection of the four in our models, so he makes the most sense to exclude. With Brady, Henry, and Michel locked in, there’s still enough room for Julian Edelman — who our models peg with the second-highest floor on the slate — if you also punt the last spot with Firkser.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers, though sometimes players from the cash section will be re-highlighted as appropriate. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
WR Julian Edelman, Patriots: Every year since 2013, Edelman has averaged between 6.1 and 6.6 receptions per game during the regular season. In the five postseasons he appeared in over that span, he posted per-game reception averages of 8.0 (2013), 8.5 (2014), 8.7 (2015), 7.0 (2016), and 8.7 (2018). Reportedly healthier and in an offense devoid of alternatives, Edelman is a good bet to be leaned on heavily by Brady. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP has a plus matchup in the slot against former teammate Logan Ryan, whose 758 yards allowed in coverage were 165 more than any other slot corner in the league this season, according to data from Pro Football Focus.
RB Sony Michel, Patriots: The Titans run defense is a strength on paper (10th in DVOA), but proved vulnerable over the second half of the season, allowing 23.0 carries for 114.0 yards and 1.25 TDs per game to opposing backfields. As with Edelman, history hints that there might be an uptick in usage in store for Michel. Last season, Michel averaged 16.1 carries per game during the regular season before getting fed 23.4 totes per outing in three postseason contests.
Patriots DST: Henry is the only player on the slate with more 20-point games on DraftKings this season than Pats D. That upside remains intact against Tannehill, who took four or more sacks on five separate occasions this season and has gone winless across six career starts in Foxborough while compiling a 5-to-10 TD/INT ratio.
RB Derrick Henry, Titans: It comes down to Henry vs. A.J. Brown, and our models give Henry the edge in projected ceiling by 4.0 DraftKings points (1.6 on FanDuel). According to our NFL Trends tool, four of the 10 most expensive RBs the Patriots faced this year scored at least 15 DraftKings points, while only two of the 10 most expensive WRs reached that mark.
Correlations/Stacks
Note: Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. Unless otherwise noted, all player correlation data is from the past 12 months and team correlation data is from the start of 2019.
Patriots
- Brady-White +0.47
- Michel-Burkhead +0.37
- Brady-Edelman +0.34
- Brady-Dorsett +0.34
- Brady-Burkhead +0.31
- Edelman-Watson +0.22
- Brady-Meyers +0.19
- Michel-Edelman +0.18
- White-Edelman +0.18
- Brady-Michel +0.11
- Michel-White +0.06
- Brady-Folk +0.05
- Brady-Patriots DST +0.02
- Michel-Patriots DST 0.00
- Edelman-Sanu 0.00
- Brady-Sanu -0.03
- Brady-Watson -0.08
- White-Patriots DST -0.18
- White-Burkhead -0.22
- Burkhead-Edelman -0.22
- Edelman-Patriots DST -0.23
- Brady-Harry -0.52
- Edelman-Harry -0.86
You would think Michel would have a strong positive correlation with the Patriots defense, but the way it has played out this season is Michel hasn’t shown any benefit, correlation-wise, when his team has turned in a strong defensive performance. Instead, those types of performances have more so resulted in a slight downtick for Edelman and White, who primarily rely on high reception volume.
Additionally, Edelman, White, and Michel have all been positively correlated with each other. It goes without saying that things could shake out any which why in a one-game sample, especially in the playoffs, but I think the takeaways here are that the field will likely underrate the viability of the Edelman-Michel-White stack, and of fading both Edelman and White in the same lineup. N’Keal Harry has seen 25% of his targets come in the red zone.
Even if he didn’t have a strong negative correlation to Edelman, he would still be a better pivot than Mohamed Sanu, who has averaged 7.6 yards per catch since joining the Pats. The only positives for Sanu are his one big game with the Pats (10-81-1) and his reputation as trustworthy veteran, but he’s borderline unplayable in non-full PPR.
The positive Michel-Burkhead correlation and negative Burkhead-White and Burkhead-Edelman correlations are also noteworthy; if the Patriots decide they want to go run-heavy and lean on their defense while minimizing the deficiencies of their pass offense, it’s not out of the real of possibility that Michel and Burkhead finish 1-2 on the team in touches.
Titans
- Tannehill-Brown +0.62
- Tannehill-Lewis +0.53
- Henry-Titans DST +0.35
- Henry-Brown +0.30
- Brown-Davis +0.15
- Brown-Smith +0.14
- Tannehill-Davis +0.04
- Tannehill-Henry -0.04
- Brown-Sharpe -0.10
- Henry-Davis -0.17
- Tannehill-Sharpe -0.20
- Smith-Titans DST -0.22
- Henry-Sharpe -0.30
- Henry-Lewis -0.30
- Davis-Titans DST -0.37
- Henry-Smith -0.40
- Tannehill-Firkser -0.44
- Tannehill-Titans DST -0.48
- Sharpe-Titans DST -0.51
- Brown-Firkser -0.51
Tannehill-Brown is he highest-risk, highest-reward stack in all of DFS this weekend. Given how strongly Tannehill has been correlated to Brown relative to his other pass catchers, you can make the case that the best pivot is an unstacked Tannehill, who showed rushing upside to the tune of 18.1 yards and 0.40 TDs per game as a starter.
Leverage Plays
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
RB Rex Burkhead, Patriots: Averaging 8.0 touches for 70.0 yards and 0.67 TDs over the past three games and is capable of throwing a wrench into lineups featuring pretty much any combination of his teammates in one way or another.
RB Dion Lewis, Titans: In a doomsday scenario for the Titans, they’re forced into must-pass mode (a situation in which they tend to pull Henry for Lewis), and Brown is taken away by Stephon Gilmore, forcing Tannehill into repeated check downs to his running back.
Titans DST: It’s contrarian, but the Pats offense has sputtered at times. They also have a relatively strong correlation to Henry.
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- WR Tajae Sharpe, Titans: The best way to understand Belichick’s coverage scheme is he wants you to beat him with your worst receiver. Sharpe is a near-lock to see the most single coverage.
- WR Corey Davis, Titans: Has killed the Pats in the past so he probably isn’t sneaking up on anyone, but he’ll still see his fair share of single coverage.
- TE Jonnu Smith, Titans: Belichick talked him up in a recent press conference, which probably means he’s priority No. 2 after Brown in the passing game.
- TE Anthony Firkser, Titans: Same deal as Sharpe when the Titans go 2TE.
- TE Matt LaCosse, Patriots: Three red-zone targets over the past five games.
- WR Phillip Dorsett, Patriots: Has been the No. 4 wide receiver but trust with Brady could earn him increased opportunities here.
- WR Jakobi Meyers, Patriots: Has dropped to fifth on the depth chart, which could be an ominous sign regarding their trust in him.
- TE MyCole Pruitt, Titans: Fourty-six percent of receiving TDs against the Pats have been by tight ends, and two-thirds were by second- or third-stringers.
- TE Ben Watson, Patriots: One red-zone target over the past five games.
- RB Brandon Bolden, Patriots: Kickoff returner with two touches over the past nine games (though one was a TD).
- QB Marcus Mariota, Titans: Tannehill scrambles enough to put an in-game injury into play.
- WR Cody Hollister, Titans: Likely the No. 4 receiver if active.
- WR Darius Jennings, Titans: Kick returner unlikely to play offense.
- WR Rashard Davis, Titans: Punt returner unlikely to play offense.
- FB Khari Blasingame, Titans: Five targets in six games.
