Here’s a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup featuring the Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Cash Game Strategy

In order, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson have the top four median projections on the slate in our DraftKings Showdown Models, but it’s Johnson who has the top Projected Plus/Minus and thus represents the best value for the Captain spot. In the two games since the Lions released C.J. Anderson, Johnson has averaged 24.5 touches per game.

With Johnson in the Captain spot, a lineup of Johnson, Rodgers, Stafford and Jones leave just enough salary for Mason Crosby — the player with the highest projection among players priced under the median salary — and Marcedes Lewis, who costs just $600 and projects for the best Plus/Minus on the slate.

On FanDuel, you can fit all four of Rodgers/Stafford/Jones/Johnson, so the best bet to get the greatest exposure to both run and pass games is to go with Stafford in the MVP slot alongside Johnson, Jones, and Green Bay’s top two receivers with Davante Adams (toe) out: Marques Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison.

Core GPP Plays

Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.

WR Kenny Golladay, Lions: For better or worse, Mike Pettine has always been willing live with his defenses giving up numbers to opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Golladay is projected for the top ceiling among pass catchers in our models.

RB Aaron Jones, Packers: Getting fed on the ground, through the air and in the red zone. Projects for the top ceiling among non-QBs.

RB Kerryon Johnson, Lions: Similar upside to Jones in terms of the way he’s used. Projects for the second-highest ceiling among non-QBs.

Packers DST: As I talk about in our Monday Night Football betting guide for this week, the Packers are equipped to give the Lions offensive line fits.

Correlations/Stacks

Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. All correlation data is from the past 12 months unless otherwise noted.

Packers

  • Rodgers-Allison +0.74
  • Rodgers-Graham +0.32
  • Jones-Packers DST +0.26
  • Rodgers-Valdes-Scantling +0.25
  • Jones-Allison +0.23
  • Rodgers-Jones -0.26
  • Jones-Valdes-Scantling -0.34
  • Jones-Graham -0.42
  • Jones-Williams -0.43
The Packers run game is essentially what determines how much success everyone else has, because if it’s working, Matt LaFleur is willing to play conservative and stick with it and trust his defense to preserve the lead. That makes the best pairings Jones-Packers DST with minimal receivers, or Rodgers plus pass catchers with minimal inclusion of the RBs.

Lions

  • Johnson-Golladay +0.63
  • Stafford-Golladay +0.42
  • Stafford-Prater +0.33
  • Stafford-Johnson +0.07
  • Johnson-Lions DST -0.37
  • Golladay-Amendoa -037
  • Johnson-Jones -0.39
  • Stafford-Jones -0.44
  • Golladay-Lions DST -0.47
  • Golladay-Jones -0.75

The data presents the picture of a team that prioritizes getting the ball to its top playmakers in each facet (Johnson in the run game, Golladay in the pass game), with secondary options coming into play being an indication of the offense struggling, so the Stafford-Johnson-Golladay combination is a building block.

Leverage

Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.

RB Jamaal Williams, Packers: Everyone remembers Jones’ four TDs last week, but no one remembers Williams had essentially earned an even split or better before going down with a concussion.

Jamaal-Williams

Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jamaal Williams

Dart Throw Rankings

Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.

  1. WR Jake Kumerow, Packers: Played 50-of-74 snaps as the Packers No. 3 receiver last week.
  2. WR Danny Amendola, Lions: A more expensive No. 3 than Kumerow.
  3. TE Marcedes Lewis, Packers: Has played on 43% of the offensive snaps this season and could see more than that with Robert Tonyan out.
  4. TE Jesse James, Lions: Lions use enough 12 personnel that T.J. Hockenson’s return should impact No. 3 tight end Logan Thomas more than James, who is essentially a more expensive version of Lewis.
  5. RB Ty Johnson, Lions: Has played 8-13 snaps and received 4-7 touches in each of the past three games.
  6. RB J.D. McKissic, Lions: Snaps have gone four, six then 27 over the past three games. The usage upside he showed last game and his ability to play the slot would bump him above Johnson if Amendola sits.
  7. TE Logan Thomas, Lions: The Lions could go heavy to see if Mike Pettine will stay in dime, but with Hockenson expected back.Thomas projects to fall within the lower end of his six-24 range in terms of snaps.
  8. FB Dan Vitale: Averaging 16.3 snaps per game and liable to vulture a goal-line touchdown or get sprung loose on a schemed pass play.
  9. FB Nick Bawden, Lions: Similar to Vitale; 21% snaps and 1.0 targets per game.
  10. WR Darrius Shepard, Packers: Four snaps last week but will handle returns.
  11. WR Marvin Hall, Lions: Played 29 snaps last week but may not pay at all if Amendola suits up. If Amendola is out, Hall takes his spot at No. 2.
  12. WR Allen Lazard, Packers: Two snaps on the year but was targeted in one of them and is liable to see an end zone target.
  13. WR Tom Kennedy, Lions: Behind Hall on the depth chart.
  14. TE Evan Baylis, Packers: Tonyan’s absence creates opportunity. He’s played one offensive snap in two active games.
  15. RB Tra Carson, Packers: Likely won’t play with Williams back.

Photo Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Detroit Lions running back Kerryon Johnson (33)