Here’s a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 8 Sunday Night Football matchup featuring the Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Cash Game Strategy
Aaron Rodgers has the top median projection in our DraftKings Showdown Models, but thanks to a 33% discount relative to Rodgers, it’s Matt Moore who has the top Projected Plus/Minus. By going with Moore instead of Rodgers in the Captain spot, you can squeeze in Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, LeSean McCoy and Mason Crosby, whereas optimizing around Rodgers in the MVP slot results in losing out on 6-7 projected DK points.
On FanDuel, the optimal combination is Rodgers, Moore, Jones, McCoy and Damien Williams. The latter has seemingly taken a backseat to McCoy, but has still seen double-digit touches in all but one game.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
RB Aaron Jones, Packers: Averaging 5.0 yards per carry on 315 career carries and now gets a matchup vs. the Chiefs’ 29th-ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA. He’s also second on the team in catches per game (3.9). Jones has the highest ceiling projection on the slate.
Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33)
RB Jamaal Williams, Packers: Excluding the game he got knocked out of after one snap, Williams is averaging 12.0 opportunities per game, even out-snapping Jones in Weeks 3 (61%-39%) and 6 (53%-49%). Williams has the highest ceiling projection among players priced $7,500 and under on DraftKings.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers: Leads all active Packers in air yard market share (26%) by an 11% margin, per AirYards.com, and has the top ceiling projection among WRs in our models.
WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs: Green Bay is allowing tied for the fourth-most schedule-adjusted yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers (82.4), per Football Outsiders. Hill went 3-74-1 with Moore at the helm last Thursday night.
TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs: The Packers allowed the second-most catches (33), yards (368) and touchdowns (4) to tight ends over the past five weeks, including a 7-126-2 line to Darren Waller last week.
Correlations/Stacks
Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. All correlation data is from the past 12 months unless otherwise noted.
Packers
- Rodgers-Kumerow +0.88
- Rodgers-Allison +0.46
- J. Williams-Crosby +0.45
- Rodgers-Valdes-Scantling +0.45
- Rodgers-Graham +0.38
- Rodgers-Williams +0.37
- Rodgers-Crosby +0.32
- Jones-Packers DST +0.30
- Rodgers-Jones -0.09
- Jones-Valdes-Scantling -0.21
- Jones-Graham -0.26
- J. Williams-Packers DST -0.33
- Rodgers-Packers DST -0.36
- Jones-J. Williams -0.49
The Packers have played it safe with a lead at times, leading to the Packers DST’s positive correlation with Jones and negative correlation with Rodgers. Jones and Graham have also been negatively correlated, as they are essentially competing for the same red-zone touchdowns.
Chiefs
- Chiefs QB-Opposing QB +0.72
- Chiefs QB-TE1 +0.70
- McCoy-Butker +0.39
- Hill-Chiefs DST +0.37
- McCoy-Damien Williams +0.34
- Hill-Kelce +0.03
- Chiefs QB-WR1 -0.03
- Hill-Butker -0.21
- Damien Williams-Hill -0.23
- Damien Williams-Kelce -0.24
- Watkins-Kelce -0.34
- Damien Williams-Chiefs DST -0.49
- Hill-Watkins -0.73
- Hill-McCoy -0.90
Hill’s big play ability sometimes results in him hogging chunks of production that would have otherwise been distributed more evenly, so he’s not always necessary to stack with. Given the data, the top stacks look like Moore-Kelce in the pass game and a McCoy-Williams run-game-heavy pairing, which could be utilized heavily in this game with Patrick Mahomes (knee) out.
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87).
Leverage
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
K Mason Crosby, Packers: Has the top projected median and Plus/Minus among players under $4,800, and also has negative correlations with Jones and Jimmy Graham.
K Harrison Butker, Chiefs: Negatively correlated to every player on the Chiefs except McCoy and Sammy Watkins.
RB Darrel Williams, Chiefs: Sometimes it’s as if Andy Reid doesn’t know which Williams is which and uses third-string Darrel in Damien’s role. Darrel is tied with McCoy for the team lead with five carries inside the opposing 5-yard line.
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- WR Alan Lazard, Packers: Posted 7-107-1 over the past two weeks while leading the Packers in air-yard share (21%).
- WR Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs: The least likely Chief to get his snaps cut with Hill and Watkins healthy; played 63% in Week 1 and 80% or more every week since.
- WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs: Snap count could dip below 50% but he’s a poor man’s Hill and should see action in the return game.
- WR Jake Kumerow, Packers: 4-71-1 over the past two weeks.
- TE Marcedes Lewis, Packers: Just 2-50-0 over the past two weeks, but the Chiefs have allowed the third-most catches to tight ends (47).
- FB Danny Vitale, Packers: Averaging 1.0 touches for 13.8 scrimmage yards per game; seems like only a matter of time before he vultures a TD.
- TE Blake Bell, Chiefs: 20-plus snaps every week but yet to see more than one target in a game.
- FB Anthony Sherman, Chiefs: Three carries and two targets in seven games.
- WR Darrius Shepherd, Packers: Likely won’t see snaps at WR but has returned 10 kicks over the past two weeks.
- RB Dexter Williams, Packers: Active for the first time last week and carried three times for 2 yards.
- WR Byron Pringle, Chiefs: Catch-less on 14 snaps last week and liable for a goose egg with Watkins back.
- TE Deon Yelder, Chiefs: Popped for 2-43-0 in Week 4 but hasn’t been targeted since.
- RB Darwin Thompson, Chiefs: Carries by backs not named Williams will be hard to come by in this game.
- TE Evan Baylis, Packers: Eight snaps of nothingness last week.
- WR Ryan Grant, Packers: Probable healthy scratch.
Pictured above: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12)
Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
