The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Broncos at Raiders
This division game currently has a 43.5-point implied Vegas total, the fourth-lowest mark of the week. Denver travels to Oakland in a pick’em. Both teams have implied totals of 21.75 points.
Denver Broncos
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Trevor Siemian
Siemian has just three passing touchdowns since throwing four in Week 3. The good news is the Raiders rank 25th in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Siemian is a risky option with the slate’s fourth-lowest point floor on both FanDuel (4.1) and DraftKings (4.3). Even against a leaky secondary likely to be without one of its top cornerbacks in Sean Smith, Siemian lacks both the efficiency and upside necessary to make him even an intriguing GPP option.
RB – Devontae Booker
Even though he’s been limited, Booker (shoulder) has practiced this week and is expected to play this weekend. After serving as a workhorse last week in his first career start, he’ll again be a strong play in Week 9 even though his salary has jumped from $3700 DK to $6400. The Raiders have a poor +2.0 Opponent Plus/Minus vs. RBs. Oakland is currently giving up the eighth-most total yards per game and ranks 11th in DK points allowed to RBs. Thomas and Sanders may be popular this week, but Booker could be a primary way to get exposure to this game. Per our Trends Tool, road RBs comparable in salary and projection typically perform above salary-based expectations:
RB – Kapri Bibbs
The third-year third-stringer is now the backup RB. In his only year of action in the Football Bowl Subdivision, he produced a 281-1,741-31 rushing stat line over 14 games for the Colorado State Rams.
This is unconfirmed, but he might by CSURAM88’s favorite college player of all time. Again, that’s just speculation.
This week, Bibbs is the fourth-lowest rated RB in the CSURAM88 Model, sandwiched between Mike Tolbert and Dexter McCluster.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
Per our NFL Matchups tool, Thomas will likely run most of his routes against Smith — if he suits up. Smith and the other members of the Oakland secondary have allowed some big games to opposing wideouts, giving up seven different 100-yard performances to date. That bodes well for Thomas, who (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report) is top-25 in market share of Air Yards and is a large part of the narrow target distribution in Denver:
Thomas is 13th in the NFL in target market share (25.87 percent) over the past four weeks and has averaged 10 targets per game over the last three. He is in consideration for all contest formats and currently rates as the No. 1 DK WR in our Cash Model with eight Pro Trends and a projected ownership of just five to eight percent in the Millionaire Maker.
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
There’s a lot to like about Sanders, even with Siemian under center. He has a top-25 four-game target share of 23.08 percent and is also 11th in the NFL in target share of Air Yards, a predictive stat for big plays. Sanders is the sixth-highest rated FD WR in our Cash Model with a Bargain Rating of 92 percent. He’s projected to have five to eight percent ownership in the Sunday Million. Per our Trends Tool, road WRs comparable in salary and projection typically perform above expectation:
WR – Jordan Norwood
Norwood had seven targets a few weeks ago in a game in which Siemian threw the ball 50 times. This only highlights his extremely low ceiling, as he totaled just 39 yards. He has just two receptions on five targets in his past two games. Norwood dreams of the day when someone accidentally rosters him in a GPP.
TE – Virgil Green
One week after he saw zero targets in Week 7, Green had his best game of the season, totaling a whopping 55 yards on four receptions against the Chargers. This is likely his ceiling in 2016, as the red-zone looks from the preseason have not carried over: He has just two in five games. Siemian doesn’t look to his TEs nearly enough to make Green even a viable punt play against a Raiders team ranked 19th against TEs in pass DVOA. Could a fluky TD happen? Maybe, but there are better TE investments in this slate.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
Carr set the Raiders franchise record for passing yards last week with 513 in an overtime win against the Buccaneers. His reward? A game against a Broncos defense ranked second in DVOA. Point chasing is one thing, but even in GPPs you probably don’t want to attack a defense that has done this . . .
. . . to this group of quarterbacks:
Carr is the fourth-lowest rated DK QB in our Cash Model.
RB – Latavius Murray
If Denver has been vulnerable anywhere it is against the run. Murray will probably be terribly inefficient all game but get into the end zone because that is what he does. With volume and red-zone opportunity mitigating his inefficiency, he might be a sneaky option this week in GPPs: Murray has seen less competition in this backfield since his return and is averaging 18 touches over his last two games. He has enough touchdown equity and involvement in the passing game to warrant consideration and is currently projected at zero to one percent ownership across both sites.
RB – DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Jamize Olawale
Too talented to ignore, too limited to roster, too productive to allow Latavius a real chance to be a workhorse, this trio of terror is the DFS WOAT.
WR – Amari Cooper
Cooper (back) has been limited in practice this week but is fully expected to play through his questionable tag. He’s been one of the best receivers in the league through eight weeks with top-three ranks in both receptions and yards. Denver has held FD WRs to a league-low -1.8 Plus/Minus over the last 16 games.
WR – Michael Crabtree
No one in this passing game is a great play by any means, but Crabtree is projected at zero to one percent ownership, and he is 18th in the league in target share of Air Yards (32.36 percent). There are worse contrarian plays in GPPs this week.
WR – Seth Roberts
It’s the same old story with Roberts: Carr looks to him in the red zone but he is not a focal point in the Raiders offense, even in good situations. Per our Matchups tool, Roberts is likely to see a lot of CB Chris Harris Jr., who offers him Pro Football Focus’ sixth-most disadvantageous matchup of the slate. Roberts is completely outmatched and is the sixth-worst rated FD WR in our Tournament Model.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford has had a limited impact through eight weeks, with no more than three catches in a game over the past five weeks. Things won’t get easier against a Broncos defense ranked sixth in pass DVOA against TEs.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players presented in the charts. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
