The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Bengals at Patriots
The Patriots host the Bengals in Week 6 as eight-point favorites. This game has a total of 47.5 points. The Patriots are currently implied for 27.75 points; the Bengals are implied for 19.75 points.
Cincinnati Bengals
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Andy Dalton
Dalton has thrown for more than one touchdown only once this season, but he is completing 67.4 percent of his passes. That is currently the highest mark of his career. Dalton has been struggling to score in the red zone, completing only 51.85 percent of his passes inside the 20 and only 37.5 percent inside the 10. Dalton has only three touchdown passes on 27 attempts inside the 20. In 2015, Tyler Eifert caught 12 of 15 targets for 11 touchdowns in the red zone. Dalton badly needs Eifert back and could continue to struggle in the red zone without him.
This week, Dalton is an interesting option facing the Patriots as a large dog. Despite the lack of touchdowns, Dalton is averaging 18.3 DraftKings points and his price has dropped significantly this month. When a QB’s salary has dropped more than $500 on DK in a month, they historically return a Plus/Minus of +2.29.
Dalton currently rates as the third-highest quarterback in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model.
RB – Jeremy Hill
He was limited in Week 5, seeing only four carries and a single target. Unfortunately for Hill (per Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus), the Patriots are allowing only 15 percent of their skill position points on the ground. Obviously that means they are allowing 85 percent of fantasy points against them via receptions. To add insult to injury, 86 percent of Hill’s PPR fantasy points have come on the ground this year. He has a low +0.8 Projected Plus/Minus on DK this week.
RB – Giovani Bernard
Gio had a solid bounce-back game against Dallas, but it is important to remember that Hill left early. Bernard managed to see nine carries and six targets in that game. However, over his last four games, he has a 17 percent market share of targets and has received only 32 percent of the Bengals’ carries. Still, in a game in which the Bengals are projected to be trailing, Gio could have a chance to see an uptick in volume. He saw 59 percent of his 2015 targets when tied or trailing.
WR – A.J. Green
Everyone knows that the Patriots try to remove their opponents’ top offensive weapon. This week, that weapon is A.J. Green. Green has been very inconsistent this season; 71 percent of his DraftKings points have come in two of his five games. Neither Malcolm Butler nor Logan Ryan are particularly imposing, and if Green is able to draw single coverage, he will have opportunities to get open deep. In his two best games this year, Green has averaged over 15 yards per reception. While he’s more of a tournament option, he does have a top-10 rating in CSURAM88’s FanDuel Player Model. He has 10 FD Pro Trends this week.
WR – Brandon LaFell
With Green drawing most of the defense’s attention in Week 5, LaFell saw 11 targets. He turned those targets into eight catches for 68 yards and two touchdowns. With Green looking to draw similar coverage this week, LaFell makes for a legitimate tournament option. His targets have increased in three straight weeks, while his DK price continues to be incredibly low at $3,200. LaFell has a projected ceiling of 14.7 points on DK and projected ownership of zero to one percent.
WR – Tyler Boyd
After seeing his snaps drop for two straight weeks, Boyd took a leap in Week 5; he played on 71 percent of the Bengals’ snaps. Unfortunately, that translated to only five targets with three catches for 33 yards. As long as LaFell and Green continue to dominate the WR targets, Boyd is not going to be able to make a fantasy impact.
TE – Tyler Eifert
Eifert (back) has been ruled out for Week 6. The wait continues.
TE – C.J. Uzomah
Uzomah has received the fourth-highest market share of targets in this offense, although the results haven’t been there. He has not cleared 10 PPR points yet this season. After seeing the third-highest market share to start the season, he has now been passed by Gio over the past four weeks.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
Last week, #AngryTom dropped 406 yards and three touchdowns against the Browns. This week, he faces a Bengals team that was tied for the fifth-worst Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs in 2015:
However, the Bengals haven’t been quite as terrifying this season:
The Bengals are allowing the second-highest TD rate per pass and have allowed 11 touchdowns (sixth-most) to quarterbacks through the first five games. Don’t forget Cincinnati allowed four touchdowns and 312 yards to Trevor Siemian at home; what exactly do you expect from #AngryTom in his return to Foxborough? At projected five to eight percent ownership in the Millionaire Maker this week, Brady could be a solid pivot in GPPs as QBs like Cam and Brees will be higher-owned.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
Blount played on just 39 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 5 after averaging 62.4 percent through the first four weeks. Blount’s value has historically been reliant on the spread:
Just to show the extreme splits: In games in which the Patriots are favored by less than 7.5 points, the numbers are not so pretty:
The bad news for Blount is that the offense is likely to be pass-heavy under Brady (40 attempts last week). This in theory limits Blount’s upside, but he will also likely be in the position to score more touchdowns. He is a tournament-only play due to his lack of involvement in the passing game, but he has two-touchdown upside. He is currently the ninth-highest rated RB in our Tournament Model on DK with two to four percent projected ownership in the Millionaire Maker.
Like almost every player on the Pats, Blount (hip) is questionable for Week 6 but expected to play.
RB – James White
White out-snapped Blount in Brady’s return, but he still had just nine touches in Week 5 and is now averaging just 6.8 touches per game this season. At $4,100 on DK, White owns the eighth-highest Projected Plus/Minus among RBs in the slate at just two to four percent projected ownership.
WR – Julian Edelman
Even after a rough outing against the Browns, Edelman still leads the Patriots in target market share in the past four games (25.2 percent). The Bengals have allowed a -0.57 Plus/Minus to wide receivers this season. According to Football Outsiders, they are the third-best defense at defending No. 1 wide receivers. Edelman may not have huge touchdown upside, but he should be a safe volume play this week on FanDuel, where he boasts a 94 percent Bargain Rating and top-20 rating in our Cash Model.
Edelman (foot) is questionable but expected to play.
WR – Chris Hogan
Hogan played just 61 percent of the snaps in Week 5 but is 19th in the entire league in market share of Air Yards (33.75 percent). He isn’t highly-rated in any of our Pro Models, but his Air Yards suggest some sneaky upside for tournaments.
WR – Danny Amendola
It is highly unlikely that Amendola will repeat his Week 2 multi-touchdown performance any time soon; he has just four targets in the last two games. He’s a GPP dart at best considering his incredibly-low 6.7-point projected ceiling on DK.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
With Brady back under center, Gronk ran 34 routes in Week 5 after getting just 17 total in the previous two. There’s clear competition in the red zone, as it was the Black Unicorn who came down with three scores. Regardless, a Gronk spike is coming, and it could be soon; he owns the second-highest ceiling on FD in our Models. He has FantasyLabs projected ownership of nine to 12 percent, which is low in a historical sense for Gronk. Week 6 might be the time to go heavy on him in GPPs.
Gronk questionable. Gronk play. Gronk smash.
TE – Martellus Bennett
Bennett has earned PFF’s second-highest overall grade among all TEs this season and owns a 18.7 percent target share (second on the team) in the last four games. The two tight end set is back as the most common formation in New England and Bennett has shown that he has as much touchdown upside as anyone. He has the highest average Plus/Minus of any TE through five weeks on FD at +6.87 and could be a nice leverage play again off of Gronk at a lower salary. However, recency bias seems to be a thing, as he has FantasyLabs projected ownership of nine to 12 percent. In that case, there’s merit to fading him.
Bennett (ankle) is questionable but expected to play.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
