EDITOR’S NOTE (Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET): Please see updates in Roster Build (Cash), New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (GPP), and San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (GPP) sections.

This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.

Week 15 shmoney time!

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Quarterback (Cash)

  • Jalen Hurts, PHI ($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD) at ARI

The 2020 DFS QB flow chart:

  • Does he run?
  • Is he cheap?
  • Is he not named Daniel Jones or Carson Wentz?

Jalen Hurts checks all three boxes. In his first start, the rookie completed 17 of 30 passes for 167 yards and added 106 yards on 18 carries, 11 of which were designed runs (excluding kneel-downs). He helped the Eagles to 413 yards of total offense on the Saints, who rank second on defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Hurts has a top-seven median projection and a salary that doesn’t measure up.

Our NFL Player Models have Hurts ranked No. 1 among QBs in projected points per dollar this week.

Running Back (Cash)

  • Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers ($4,500 DK, $5,500 FD) at ATL
  • Alvin Kamara, Saints ($7,400 DK, $7,800 FD) vs. KC
  • Derrick Henry, Titans ($9,500 DK, $10,200 FD) vs. DET

A week after being a surprise healthy scratch, Leonard Fournette will be the Bucs’ featured back, because 2020. Ronald Jones (COVID-19) will miss the game, which will allow offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich to save face and stroke the fourth-year vet’s ego with a full workload.

Our models have Fournette ranked No. 1 among non-QBs in Projected Plus/Minus this week.

The return of Drew Brees is good news for Alvin Kamara, who saw his production decline with Taysom Hill behind center.

  • Kamara with Brees: 19.6 touches, 125.8 yards, 1.40 TDs
  • Kamara with Hill: 17.4 touches, 99.8 yards, 0.88 TDs

The Chiefs’ No. 30 ranking in run-defense DVOA and No. 31 ranking in DVOA on passes to running backs suggest they will have an especially tough time defending Kamara.

In 18 games as a home favorite since the start of 2018, Derrick Henry has blasted opposing defenses for 107.9 yards and 1.0 total TDs on 20.4 touches per game. When those games are played after Week 10, those averages jump to 117.5 yards and 1.33 TDs. Those figures are a good bet to increase even more against a Lions defense that ranks 26th in rushing DVOA and 32nd in DVOA on passes to running backs.

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Wide Receiver (Cash)

  • Emmanuel Sanders, Saints ($4,200 DK, $5,500 FD) vs. KC
  • Chad Hansen, Texans ($4,200 DK, $5,600 FD) at IND
  • T.Y. Hilton, Colts ($5,500 DK, $6,800 FD) vs. HOU
  • Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($6,300 DK, $6,900 FD) at DAL

Emmanuel Sanders has seen his usage nearly double with Michael Thomas (IR, knee) out:

  • With Thomas: 4.0 targets, 3.0 receptions, 30.7 yards, 0.43 TDs
  • Without Thomas: 7.8 targets, 5.8 receptions, 72.3 yards, 0.25 TDs

Sanders has a top-four WR Projected Plus/Minus this week.

Chad Hansen has posted five- and seven-catch games in place of Will Fuller (suspended), including a 5/101/0 line against the Colts two weeks ago.

It is well-known that T.Y. Hilton loves playing the Texans in Houston, but he’s produced just fine against them at home as well, dusting them for 5.5/79.5/0.5 over the last four meetings and 5.1/73.3/0.38 across eight career matchups.

Brandon Aiyuk leads all WRs in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and is tops among WRs over $4,700 on DraftKings. He has posted 115-plus receiving yards and/or a TD in each of his past six games should continue to eat against a Dallas defense that has allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers (89.5).

Tight End (Cash)

  • T.J. Hockensen, Lions ($5,200 DK, $6,200 FD) at TEN

In eight games without Kenny Golladay (knee, out), T.J. Hockenson has seen per-game increases in targets (7.0 vs. 6.4), receptions (4.8 vs. 4.0) and yards (56.8 vs. 40.6). He’s a good bet to keep it going against a Titans defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against tight ends. He also provides valuable savings over Mark Andrews, who is similarly projected and faces the 24th-ranked Jaguars.

Defense/Special Teams (Cash)

  • Washington Football Team ($2,600 DK, $4,200 FD) vs. SEA
  • San Francisco 49ers ($3,000 DK, $4,200 FD) at DAL

Even against Russell Wilson, Washington is too cheap to pass up on DraftKings. Wilson has taken the second-most sacks in the league and Seattle is averaging only 23.8 points over its past five games after averaging 34.3 in its first eight.

The 49ers allowed nine points on defense last week, with Washington scoring two TDs on defense. With Richard Sherman already back and slot corner K’Waun Williams (ankle, questionable) likely to return after practicing all week, the 49ers are nearly back to full-strength and should make life miserable for Andy Dalton and Dallas’ makeshift offensive line.

Roster Build (Cash)

UPDATE (Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET):  With Ezekiel Elliott inactive, Tony Pollard becomes a top value. See below for details.

On DraftKings, you can fit Hurts, Henry, Kamara, Fournette, Aiyuk, Sanders, Hockenson and Washington DST if you punt the WR3 spot with Hansen.

UPDATE (Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET): No change here since Fournette is still cheaper than Pollard and we still want Henry and Kamara (the RB1 and RB3, respectively, for the entire slate) locked in.

On FanDuel, you can fit Hurts, Henry, Kamara, Fournette, Aiyuk, Sanders, Hilton, Hockenson and San Francisco or Washington DST at $4,200.

UPDATE (Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET): Swapping Pollard for Fournette gains +0.94 projected points and allows you to swap in Allen Robinson for Hilton (+2.25) and Seahawks DST in for Washington/49ers (+1.4/+1.7).

 

Tournament Strategy

Leverage Plus/Minus: Rank in projected ceiling minus rank in projected ownership. The goal in tournaments is to roster the highest scorers at each position rather than simply optimize for value, and Leverage Plus/Minus identifies the players with a higher probability of posting a high score than of being in other entrants’ lineups.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (GPP)

  • QB Kirk Cousins, MIN: Chicago is dealing with injuries in the secondary and has never allowed more than 3.55 yards per carry to Dalvin Cook, so this could be a sneaky pass funnel spot. Cousins leads all QBs in Leverage Plus/Minus.
  • RB Dalvin Cook, MIN: Chicago defends him well, but he had 34 touches in the last matchup projects for a top-two leverage score among RBs this week.
  • WRs Adam Thielen MIN: Projects to outscore Justin Jefferson despite a lower salary and lower projected ownership.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (GPP)

  • QB Ryan Tannehill, TEN: A lock for a high floor — he’s thrown for multiple TDs in 19 of 23 starts as a Titan — with upside to cut into some of Henry’s production.
  • WR A.J. Brown, TEN: Second among WRs on FanDuel in PRO Trends, faces a Lions defense ranked 24th in DVOA vs. WR1s and provides leverage off Henry at lower projected ownership.
  • WR Corey Davis, TEN: Leads all WRs on DraftKings in PRO Trends, faces a Lions defense that ranks 27th in DVOA vs. WR2s and provides leverage on Henry at what is likely to be single-digit ownership.
  • WR Marvin Jones, DET: Average stat line goes from 4.6/2.8/34.8/0.40 in five games with Golladay to 8.3/5.1/60.0/0.50 in eight games without and projects for single-digit ownership.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (GPP)

  • RB Jonathan Taylor, IND: Facing a Texans defense that ranks 29th in rushing DVOA, Taylor provides value as both as a price pivot off Kamara (at roughly half of the projected ownership) and a leverage option on Hilton ownership.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (GPP)

  • RB James Robinson, JAX: Projects for sub-5% ownership and a top-five ceiling despite a tough matchup.
  • QB Lamar Jackson, BAL: The Jags’ defense ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and 24th against the run.
  • RB J.K. Dobbins, BAL: 121 yards or a TD in four of his past six games.
  • WR Marquise Brown, BAL: Expected to draw single-digit ownership despite facing a Jags defense allowing 90.3 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers, second-most.
  • TE Mark Andrews, BAL: Projected TE2 behind Travis Kelce at a lower salary and half of the projected ownership.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (GPP)

  • QB Patrick Mahomes, KC: One of three QBs on DK with a positive Leverage Plus/Minus.
  • WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO: Leverage on Kamara and Sanders at lower cost and a fraction of the projected ownership.
  • TE Jared Cook, NO: Ditto.

New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams (GPP)

  • QB Jared Goff, LAR: Projects for half as much ownership as Cam Akers, but the Jets rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA but eighth against the run.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (GPP)

  • QB Cam Newton, NE: Has produced an upside game 21% of the time but is expected to be 0-1% owned against Miami’s 24th-ranked run defense that he shredded for 15/75/2 on the ground in the first meeting.
  • RB Sony Michel, NE: The Patriots will be without running backs Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead, who average a combined 20.4 carries per game.
  • Patriots DST: Belichick is a history of stifling rookie QBs, most recently holding Rookie of the Year frontrunner Justin Herbert and the Chargers scoreless two weeks ago.
  • Dolphins DST: Lead all DSTs in Leverage Plus/Minus. One of Newton, Michel or the Dolphins DST is pretty much guaranteed to smash in this game.
  • UPDATE (Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET): With Devante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Mike Gesicki all out, WR Lynn Bowden Jr. becomes a viable dart throw. Bowden ran a route on 75% of the dropbacks last week and caught 7 passes for 82 yards on 9 targets.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (GPP)

  • QB Kyler Murray, ARI: Another week removed from his shoulder injury with a salary at the lowest point it has been in over two months against an Eagles defense missing three starting defensive backs: cornerback Darius Slay (concussion), cornerback Avonte Maddox (knee) and safety Rodney McCloud (knee).
  • WR DeAndre Hopkins, ARI: Tied for the league lead with six 100-yard games and should land between 5-12% owned.
  • WR Christian Kirk, ARI: The Eagles rank 31st in DVOA vs. WR2s, and there’s a chance the cluster injury situation could further open things up for Kirk while Hopkins is double-teamed. Kirk and Hopkins have a negative correlation of -0.44 on DraftKings and -0.42 on FanDuel.
  • RB Miles Sanders, PHI: Arizona ranks 21st in explosive rush rate allowed (13%), according to Sharp Football Stats. Sanders also gives you leverage on Hurts.
  • WR Greg Ward, PHI: Led Eagles wide receivers in routes run last week and pops with 7 PRO Trends at 0-1 projected ownership at minimum price on DraftKings.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (GPP)

  • RB Raheem Mostert, SF: Still projected to lead the 49ers’ backfield in carries against a Dallas defense that ranks 27th in run-defense DVOA and provides massive leverage off Aiyuk at a fraction of the ownership.
  • TE Dalton Schultz, DAL: Leads all TEs on DraftKings in projected points per dollar and is top-three in Leverage Plus/Minus at the position thanks to sub-5% projected ownership.
  • UPDATE (Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET): RB Tony Pollard could be under owned if users who previously built lineups haven’t adjusted for the news of Elliott being out, so he is viable in GPPs as well.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (GPP)

  • WR Calvin Ridley, ATL: Averaging 6.8/105.0/0.50 on 11.0 targets per game in four games without Julio Jones (hamstring, out).
  • TE Hayden Hurst: Second among TEs on DraftKings with 7 PRO Trends, which is a match for a trend of TEs at home priced under $7,000 with 7 or more PRO Trends, which has produced a +4.89 Plus/Minus and a 65.3% Consistency Rating since 2018, according to our NFL Trends tool.
  • QB Tom Brady, TB: Projects for a top-four QB ceiling and less than half as much ownership as Fournette.
  • WR Chris Godwin, TB: Has posted 79-plus yards and/or a TD in 6-of-9 games and provides leverage off Fournette at an ownership percentage expected to be in the single-digits.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team (GPP)

  • WR Tyler Lockett, SEA: Projects to be the lowest owned WR above $6,500 on DraftKings and $7,200 on DraftKings.
  • WR Terry McLaurin, SEA: Averaged 9.6/6.5/96.8/0.25 in Dwayne Haskins‘ four starts compared to 8.3/5.2/68.2/0.22 in the other nine games and has a chance to land below 10% ownership.

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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network who hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.

Pictured above: Jalen Hurts
Credit: Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

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