This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.

Week 14 shmoney time!

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Quarterback (Cash)

• Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($7,500 DK, $9,100 FD) at DET
• Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($8,100 DK, $8,900 FD) at MIA

Aaron Rodgers has thrown multiple TD passes in all but one game and should stay hot against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA.

Patrick Mahomes is cheaper than Rodgers on FanDuel, making him the top value at QB on the site. Mahomes has a +6.72 Plus/Minus and 92% Consistency Rating this season. The Dolphins’ defense has been stronger against the pass than run this season but has allowed an average of 3.25 total TDs per game to the four toughest QB matchups it faced (Josh Allen, 4; Russell Wilson, 2; Kyler Murray, 4; Justin Herbert, 3)

Running Back (Cash)

• DeAndre Washington, Dolphins ($4,000 DK, $4,600 FD) vs. KC
• James Robinson, Jaguars ($7,500 DK, $8,000 FD) vs. TEN
• Aaron Jones, Packers ($7,600 DK, $8,700 FD) at DET

DeAndre Washington is slated to lead the Dolphins backfield after Myles Gaskin was placed on the COVID-19 list. Washington had 13 carries and five targets against the Jets two weeks ago in a similar role. He projects for a top-two Plus/Minus at the position.

James Robinson projects for a higher Plus/Minus and floor than his counterpart on the other side, Derrick Henry. Robinson has handled 95.5% of the Jaguars’ backfield carries this season.

Aaron Jones also projects as a better value than Henry, as he goes against a Lions defense that ranks 28th in run DVOA and 32nd in DVOA on targets to running backs.

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Wide Receiver (Cash)

• Breshad Perriman, Jets ($3,900 DK, $5,800 FD) at SEA
• Tim Patrick, Broncos ($4,200 DK, $5,400 FD) at CAR
• Curtis Samuel, Panthers ($5,200 DK, $5,900 FD) vs. DEN
• Davante Adams, Packers ($9,300 DK, $9,600 FD) at DET

Breshad Perriman clocks in with the second best Projected Plus/Minus among WRs on DraftKings in our models. With Denzel Mims (personal) out, Jamison Crowder (calf) questionable and nothing to speak of in terms of tight end production, Perriman has many avenues to value against a Seahawks defense that has allowed an NFL-high 229 receptions to wide receivers this season.

Tim Patrick has emerged as the Broncos’ top WR, hitting value in seven of his last 10 games (seven of nine if you remove the game Kendall Hinton started at quarterback).

Curtis Samuel benefits from the absences of D.J. Moore (COVID-19) and Christian McCaffrey (quad). He projects as the best value at the position this week.

Davante Adams is a top play on FanDuel, where he is only $500 more than Rodgers compared to $1,800 on DraftKings. Adams has been held under double-digit FanDuel points only twice all season: a game which he left early with injury and his first game back after returning from that injury.

Tight End (Cash)

• Logan Thomas, WAS ($3,300 DK, $5,200 FD) at SF
• Travis Kelce, KC ($7,400 DK, $8,200 FD) at MIA

Logan Thomas has been running a route on nearly every dropback for Washington. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on 67% of his games this season by an average of 3.31 points per game.

Travis Kelce has been held under 70 yards only twice all season. He projects as the top scorer at his position and one of the 10 highest-scoring players on the slate. Kelce has more value as a way to get exposure to the Chiefs offense on DraftKings, where it’s easier to get in Rodgers than Mahomes.

Defense/Special Teams (Cash)

• Dallas Cowboys ($2,300 DK, $3,500 FD) at CIN
• Carolina Panthers ($2,900 DK, $3,400 FD) vs. DEN

The Cowboys have the third-highest median projection in our models, yet they are tied for the seventh-lowest price on DraftKings.

The Panthers face a Broncos offense that has committed the most turnovers in the league (28) and are $100 cheaper than Dallas on FanDuel.

Roster Build (Cash)

On DraftKings, you can fit Rodgers, Robinson, Jones, Samuel, Patrick, Kelce and Cowboys DST if you punt FLEX with Washington and WR3 with Perriman.

On FanDuel, you can fit Mahomes, Robinson, Jones, Adams, Samuel, Patrick, Thomas and Broncos DST if you punt FLEX with Washington.

 

Tournament Strategy

Leverage Plus/Minus: Rank in projected ceiling minus rank in projected ownership. The goal in tournaments is to roster the highest scorers at each position rather than simply optimize for value, and Leverage Plus/Minus identifies the players with a higher probability of posting a high score than of being in other entrants’ lineups.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (GPP)

QB Daniel Jones, NYG: Rushing upside that could potentially come at under 1% ownership.

RB Wayne Gallman, NYG: Has exceeded salary-based expectations by at least four points in each of his past six games.

WR Sterling Shepard, NYG: The Cardinals rank third in deep pass DVOA but 26th against short passes, which sets up better for a bounce-back game from Shepard than Darius Slayton.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers (GPP)

WR Keenan Allen, LAC: The Falcons have allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers (89.4) and rank 27th in DVOA against them.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL: Has posted 90-plus yards and/or a TD in all but two games but projects as one of the lowest-owned stud WRs.

Falcons DST: The Chargers’ +2.8 Opponent Plus Minus is the highest of any team on DraftKings.

Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (GPP)

RB Giovani Bernard, CIN: Projected for sub-5% ownership against a Cowboys run defense rank dead last in DVOA.

WRs Tyler Boyd & Tee Higgins, CIN: Both are expected to be under 5% owned against a  Cowboys defense that ranks 29th in short pass DVOA and 30th in deep pass DVOA

TE Dalton Schultz, DAL: The Bengals have allowed the most schedule-adjusted receiving yards in the league to opposing tight ends (72.0).

Bengals DST: Allowed more than 20 points in only one of their last five games.

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (GPP)

RB Mike Davis, CAR: Projects as a top-10 RB but will likely see under 10% ownership due to the popularity of Samuel and Robby Anderson.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (GPP)

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB: Will have a fraction of Rodgers’ and Adams’ ownership and faces a Lions defense ranked 27th in deep pass DVOA.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (GPP)

QB Deshaun Watson, HOU: Has been matchup-proof and receiver-proof this year but is expected to see ownership under 5%.

TE Jordan Akins, HOU: Chicago has allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards to opposing tight ends (62.9).

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (GPP)

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND: The Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA.

TE Darren Waller, LV: TE2 on the slate but expected to be in half as many lineups as Kelce.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (GPP)

RB Clyde-Edwards Helaire, KC: Projects for 0-1% ownership against a Dolphins defense ranked 24th in run DVOA and provides leverage on Mahomes, Kelce and Tyreek Hill.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (GPP)

WRs Adam Thielen & Justin Jefferson, MIN: The Bucs are allowing the seventh-most yards per game to opposing wide receivers this season (183.4).

RB Ronald Jones, TB: The Vikings rank 29th in Adjusted Line Yards allowed per rush (4.78).

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (GPP)

QB Taysom Hill, NO: Averaging 11.3 rushing attempts per start and attempted a season-high 37 passes last week.

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI: Taysom-like upside at even lower ownership and an even cheaper salary.

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (GPP)

RB Chris Carson, SEA: Game-script leverage on D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett with Seattle favored by two TDs.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (GPP)

QB Ryan Tannehill, TEN: Has thrown multiple TD passes in 18 of 22 regular season starts as a Titan and will land in a fraction of as many lineups as Henry.

TE Jonnu Smith, TEN: Projected for sub-5% ownership, which gives him massive leverage on Henry, A.J. Brown, and Corey Davis.

Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers (GPP)

TE Jordan Reed, SF: Revenge game against a Washington defense ranked 26th in DVOA versus tight ends.

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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network who hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.

Pictured above: Davante Adams
Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images