The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Eagles at Bengals
Philadelphia travels to Cincinnati as one-point road-favorites. This game has the third-lowest total on the slate at 42 points. The Eagles are currently implied for 21.5 points; the Bengals, 20.5 points.
Philadelphia Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
Wentz has thrown for a total of two touchdowns and five interceptions in his last four games. He has not scored more than 18.5 DraftKings points in a single game during that stretch and has averaged just 13.95 DK points per game. Per our Trends tool, the Bengals have yielded a -2.78 DK Plus/Minus to opposing QBs in their four most recent home games this season. They have not allowed an opposing QB to score more than 15.8 DK points in those games, and the opposing QBs have averaged just 12.65 DK points per game. With a FantasyLabs projected ownership of one percent or less, Wentz is a vomit-in-your-mouth-a-little-bit play in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Ryan Mathews
Mathews (knee) has been ruled out.
RB – Darren Sproles
With Mathews out, Sproles played nine more snaps than Wendell Smallwood last week but did very little offensively. Sproles hasn’t carried the ball more than three times in his last three games but has averaged six targets per game during that time. Like everyone in the entire Eagles backfield, Sproles is a risky GPP flyer. If you’re pulling the trigger on Sproles this week, you might as well pair him with the Eagles D/ST and hope for the double-dip on a punt return.
RB – Wendell Smallwood
Despite ‘starting’ last week, Smallwood accumulated only nine carries and one target on his way to 5.7 DK points. He’s extremely hard to trust this week even with Mathews out.
WR – Jordan Matthews
Matthews (ankle) is questionable and apparently a game-time decision. After not practicing on Wednesday, he practiced on Thursday, suffered a setback, and didn’t practice on Friday. Monitor this situation via the FantasyLabs News feed.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, J-Matt leads the Eagles with a 20.86 percent target share over the past four games. The problem with J-Matt isn’t his opportunity but his efficiency: His average of 1.59 fantasy points per target ranks 59th among WRs this season. Despite seeing at least 10 targets in three of his last four games, Matthews has averaged just 11.92 DK points per game during that stretch. Approach the inefficient WR with the possibly injured wheel with extreme caution.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
DGB may be the Eagles No. 1 WR by default this week. Green-Beckham has been targeted 18 times in the past two games and has averaged 15.3 DK points per game in that time frame. Still priced at the stone minimum on DK, Green-Beckham is a beguiling option for GPPs. He has been crushing his salary-based expectations over the past two weeks:
WR – ‘Other Receiver’
Nelson Agholor was inactive for performance-related issues last week and somebody claiming to be named Bryce Treggs played 44 of the Eagles’ 59 offensive snaps. Treggs had one catch on three targets. Run. Run far, far away.
TE – Zach Ertz
Ertz is currently the sixth-rated tight end in the Bales Model for FD, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating. Ertz has averaged eight targets per game over the past our games but has not scored more than 13.7 FD points during that time. The Bengals rank 25th against TEs in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) this season. Cincinnati has allowed the fifth-most receptions (63), fourth-most receiving yards (760), and fifth-most touchdowns (six) to the position this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Andy Dalton
Dalton struggled in his first game without WR A.J. Green, completing only 54 percent of his passes. That said, Dalton did throw for 283 yards and a touchdown without any interceptions. Going forward he is going to be hard to trust without Green in the lineup.
This week Dalton faces off against the defense that is ranked second in pass DVOA. The Eagles rank sixth in FO’s adjusted sack rate, while the Bengals rank 27th in adjusted sack rate in pass protection. We should expect the Bengals to try to lean heavily on their run game. Dalton rates outside the top-12 FD QBs in the Levitan Model.
RB – Jeremy Hill
Hill managed to see only 49 percent of the Bengals’ snaps in Week 12, but he did handle 70 percent of the RB carries. Hill also saw six targets, catching all of them for 61 receiving yards. It is also important to note that Hill left briefly with an ankle injury. We should expect him to see even more snaps as long as he is healthy this week.
The Eagles have a much stronger passing defense than run defense (per DVOA), ranking 12th against the run and allowing the 10th-highest rushing average this season. Still, the Eagles have been stout in that they have allowed only six rushing TDs. Regardless, at Hill’s price on DK he is currently the top-rated RB in the Levitan Model.
RB – Rex Burkhead
With RB Giovani Bernard out of the lineup, Burkhead operated as Hill’s backup last week. While he played 50 percent of the snaps, Burkhead saw only seven touches. Some of this can be attributed to Hill leaving the game with an injury at one point. We should expect Hill to continue to handle the bulk of the work.
WR – A.J. Green
Green (hamstring) has been declared out for Week 13, but he’s reportedly targeting a return in Week 14.
WR – Brandon LaFell
In each of his two games without Green in the lineup, LaFell has seen nine targets. He has operated as the top receiver in the offense but has had very little success. On his 18 targets over the last two weeks, LaFell has managed seven catches for 70 yards. Without Green to occupy opposing defenses, LaFell has been exposed.
WR – Tyler Boyd
While LaFell has been terrible without Green, Boyd has been marginally better. He has seen 17 targets in Green’s absence, catching 11 of those for 116 yards. With LaFell playing as poorly as he has, Boyd could begin to out-target him possibly as early as this week.
While the Eagles as a unit have played strong defense against receivers in the middle of the field, cornerback Malcolm Jenkins himself has allowed the most fantasy points per route against him (per Pro Football Focus). In the slot, Boyd should run over 70 percent of his routes against Jenkins this week. Boyd boasts a projected ceiling of 27.5 DK points this week.
WR – James Wright
Wright has operated as the WR3 with Green out of the lineup, seeing nine targets in that span. He is the fourth option at best in this passing game.
TE – Tyler Eifert
Eifert has been the primary beneficiary of Green’s absence, seeing 11 targets last week against Baltimore’s stout TE defense. Eifert managed to catch five of them for 68 yards and a touchdown. That was only the second TD that Baltimore has allowed to a TE this season.
The Eagles rank third in pass DVOA against TEs, allowing 4.7 catches for 30.2 yards per game. Eifert overcame a tough matchup in Week 12, but this is still a poor spot for any TE.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
