The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Dolphins at Ravens
The Dolphins make their way north to Baltimore for a game in which they are projected to be three-point road underdogs against the Ravens. This game currently has a Vegas total of 41 points, tied for the lowest of Week 13. The Dolphins are currently implied for 19 points; the Ravens, 22.
Miami Dolphins
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Tannehill
Last week, Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman called Tannehill an “irredeemable QB who belongs in Canada” — but he also said that the 49ers defense is “total trash.” The call worked out, and Tanny put up over 20 pts for the first time since Week 3, when he played against the Browns — also trash. Take your points and go home because the Ravens are the complete opposite of total trash: On defense they are eighth against the pass and first against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Miami’s offensive line is still in shambles, and Tannehill is still #badatfootball. Aim your GPP darts elsewhere, as Tannehill boasts the slate’s second-lowest ceiling and Projected Plus/Minus on DK.
RB – Jay Ajayi
Ajayi runs with reckless abandon and is capable of breaking a lot of tackles. Per Player Profiler, he is fourth in the NFL with 1.2 carries of 15-plus yards per game. Additionally, 7.5 percent of his runs have gone for 15-plus yards — a mark that ranks among the top-15 RBs through 12 weeks. That said, if you’ve been fading Ajayi the past three weeks after his big price jump, you’re probably pretty happy. Per our Trends Tool:
The Ravens defense is first in rush DVOA and is holding RBs to the slate’s third-lowest Opponent Plus/Minus (-1.6) over the last 16 games. Behind a decimated offensive line, Ajayi has by far the worst Projected Plus/Minus of any RB priced above $5,500 FD.
On the positive side, he has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of just zero to one percent in the Sunday Million. Also, left tackle Brandon Albert (wrist) and left guard Laremy Tunsil (shoulder) are expected to return to action this week.
RB – Damien Williams
Williams has touched the ball just three times since his two-touchdown explosion two weeks ago.
Don’t be that guy.
WR – Jarvis Landry
The ‘high-volume, high-floor’ player in this offense is averaging just six targets over the past four weeks. Compare that to the 11.25 targets per game he saw through the first four weeks of the season. Unsurprisingly, Landry’s production has massively declined:
Why is Landry seeing fewer targets? The team is more committed to the run, and WR DeVante Parker has been Tannehill’s go-to guy lately:
We shouldn’t be overly excited about a player in a decreased role in an offense that could struggle to move the ball this week.
WR – DeVante Parker
Parker was unlucky last week, seeing both a touchdown and another big gain overturned after a review. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Parker (not Landry) has led the team over the last four weeks with a 24.14 percent of the team’s targets. Landry and Parker complement each other, but they also cannibalize each other. If the Ravens have a slight crack in their armor, it is defending No. 1 WRs, ranking 20th in pass DVOA against the position.
As it is, Parker (back) is questionable and expected not to play. He missed practice this week, and head coach Adam Gase has said that Parker might not play.
WR – Kenny Stills
Of course, with everyone on Parker last week, it was Stills who got into the end zone. Like Parker, Stills gets targets deep down the field. Through 11 games, he boasts a 9.4 yards per target and is actually 10th in the league in fantasy points per target. That said, keep in mind who is throwing to him. Stills is a GPP dart. If you roster him, hope that Tanny can get the ball to him deep for the big play — and then hope some more that Stills doesn’t drop the pass.
TE – Dion Sims
Sims scored his first TD of the season in Week 12. That’s awesome for him but pretty insignificant for us. He’s not in play as even the deepest of GPP flyers. Tannehill has never paid much attention to his TEs, as he’s targeted the position on just 11.6 percent of his pass attempts over the past 12 months.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
Flacco now has at least one TD in four straight games, but he hasn’t eclipsed 300 passing yards since Week 6. He also has four interceptions over his last four games.
This week he faces off against a Miami defense that is sixth in pass DVOA. Additionally, Miami plays at the league’s second-slowest pace and looks to bleed the clock against its opponents. That said, Miami’s defense has sprung leaks recently, allowing 296 passing yards and three TDs to Colin Kaepernick just last week. Over the last 12 months, the Dolphins are allowing a +3.3 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs.
Flacco is a middling option with a safe projected floor, but he has a ceiling projection of only 25.7 DK points.
RB – Kenneth Dixon
Very quietly, Dixon took over as the lead back in the Baltimore timeshare in Week 12, playing 46 percent of the snaps. Unfortunately, Baltimore continues to use a committee at the position. Dixon averaged over six yards per carry in limited action in Weeks 10 and 11, but last week he managed only 3.77 YPC when his workload was increased to 13 carries.
Dixon might be the preferred option in Baltimore, but he has only three FD Pro Trends and is not a strong play until he sees more work.
RB – Terrance West
While West played fewer snaps than Dixon in Week 12, he did manage to see the exact same number of opportunities. Both RBs got 13 carries and four targets. West rushed for one less yard and caught one less pass for 15 fewer receiving yards. Regardless, it is very difficult to use a running back playing less than 40 percent of the snaps.
WR – Steve Smith
After seeing at least seven targets in every game since his return from injury, Smith saw only four targets in Week 12. He caught all four of this targets for 20 yards. This was his lowest receiving output since Week 1. Normally it would make sense to chalk up this output to Flacco’s low attempt total (36), but Flacco actually hasn’t attempted more than 41 passes since Smith’s return. Last week was just a down week for Smiff.
This week Smith gets the opportunity to run nearly 40 percent of his routes against the Dolphins’ weakest cornerback in the slot, Bobby McCain, who grades out as Pro Football Focus’ 52nd-ranked cover CB. However, Smith will also probably run about 40 percent of his routes against the Dolphins’ highest-graded CB, Byron Maxwell. The Dolphins are allowing a – 1.6 FD Opponent Plus/Minus to WRs over the last year. With this game likely to have a slow pace and Smith’s concerning Week 12 target volume, Smith is a GPP play only.
WR – Mike Wallace
After a boost in volume in Week 11 (10 targets), Wallace saw only four targets in Week 12. He should continue to operate as the WR2 behind Smith, but he will have very inconsistent target volume in a weak offense. The only positive is that Wallace is always a threat for a big play, averaging 15.53 yards per reception. Wallace is nothing more than a GPP dart throw.
WR – Breshad Perriman
Perriman managed to score a touchdown last week, but he still has only 11 targets over the past four weeks. As the fourth or fifth passing option in a struggling offense, Perriman is hard to roster.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Pitta has at least five targets in three straight games, but he has managed to turn those targets into only 90 total yards in that span. He has not topped 50 receiving yards since Week 5. Pitta also has zero touchdowns and only one target inside the 10-yard line on the season. With Pitta’s lack of usage in the red zone and his low yardage totals, he is a very difficult TE to trust.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
