This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Week 10 shmoney time!
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Quarterback (Cash)
- Kyler Murray, Cardinals ($8,000 DK, $8,800 FD) vs. BUF
Kyler Murray leads all QBs in floor, median, ceiling, and Projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Player Models, edging out Josh Allen and Russell Wilson this week. Murray has exceeded value in every game by an average of +11.96 points on DraftKings (+12.37 on FanDuel) and should keep it going in the game with the highest over/under of the week.
Running Back (Cash)
- Mike Davis, Panthers ($4,000 DK, $5,400 FD) vs. TB
- Duke Johnson, Texans ($5,400 DK, $5,800 FD) at CLE
- Aaron Jones, Packers ($7,100 DK, $8,800 FD) vs. JAX
Mike Davis was assigned a salary before it was known Christian McCaffrey would be out. Even in a tough matchup, he is simply too cheap. He is ranked No. 1 among RBs in Projected Plus/Minus.
Duke Johnson was start in place of David Johnson (concussion). He is ranked second behind Davis in Projected Plus/Minus.
Aaron Jones is in a smash spot as a 13.5-point home favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He has the second-highest projected median and floor behind the more expensive Alvin Kamara.
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Wide Receiver (Cash)
- Jakeem Grant, Dolphins ($3,000 DK, $5.400 FD) vs. LAC
- Jerry Jeudy, Broncos ($5,600 DK, $5,800 FD) at LV
- Terry McLaurin, Football Team ($6,900 DK, $7,700 FD) vs. SEA
- Keenan Allen, Chargers ($7,100 DK, $7,800 FD) at MIA
With the trade of former starting slot receiver Isaiah Ford and subsequent injury to Preston Williams (ankle, IR), both DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant are undervalued. Parker will likely see a lot of Casey Hayward, who has allowed just a 46% catch rate on the year, according to Pro Football Focus, so it makes sense to take the discount with Grant, who ranks No. 1 among WRs in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Jerry Jeudy has run a route on 90% of Broncos dropbacks over the past four games and quietly exceeded value in 75% of his games this season (including all but one with Drew Lock starting). He should do so again against a Raiders defense ranked 26th in Football Outsiders pass-defense DVOA.
Keenan Allen has seen 10-plus targets and 7-plus in every game except one — a game in which he left early with back spasms — since Justin Herbert took over at quarterback for the Chargers. Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, and Stefon Diggs have face defense with strong boundary corners in Xavien Howard, Tre’Davious White, and Patrick Peterson, respectively, but Allen runs more routes from the slot (45.3%) than Hopkins (7.4%) or Diggs (33.2%).
Despite multiple quarterbacks and facing a slew of tough matchups, Terry McLaurin has 60-plus yards and/or a TD in all but one game. He is the cheapest WR with a top-six floor, and our models project him for a higher floor, median, and ceiling than even Cooper Kupp.
Tight End (Cash)
- Darren Waller, Raiders ($5,900 DK, $7,000 FD) vs. DEN
Darren Waller has offered nearly unparalleled consistency at a TE position that has been anything but this season, catching five-plus passes in 7-of-8 games. He is far and away the projected TE1 for this slate and is easily affordable across the industry given all of the value at RB that has opened up.
Defense/Special Teams (Cash)
- New Orleans Saints ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD) vs. SF
- Arizona Cardinals ($2,000 DK, $3,500 FD) vs. BUF
The Saints have the third-highest median projection on the slate as 10-point home favorites against the 49ers.
The Cardinals lead all DSTs in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The Cardinals rank fifth i blitz rate (40.6%), which should give them plenty of opportunities for fantasy points against Buffalo’s pass-happy offense even in a projected high-scoring game.
Roster Build (Cash)
On DraftKings, you can fit Murray, Jones, Johnson, Davis, Allen, McLaurin, Waller, and Saints DST if you punt WR3 with Grant.
On FanDuel, you can fit Murray, Jones, Johnson, Davis, Allen, McLaurin, Jeudy, and Waller if you punt DST with Arizona.
Tournament Strategy
Leverage Plus/Minus: Rank in projected ceiling minus rank in projected ownership. The goal in tournaments is to roster the highest scorers at each position rather than simply optimize for value, and Leverage Plus/Minus identifies the players with a higher probability of posting a high score than of being in other entrants’ lineups.
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (GPP)
QB Josh Allen, BUF: Over their last five games, the Cardinals have allowed above-expectation rushing production to Teddy Bridgewater (6/32/1), Joe Flacco (4/20/0), Russell Wilson (6/84/0), and Tua Tagovailoa (7/35/0).
WR John Brown, BUF: Arizona is No. 30 in DVOA vs. No. 2 wide receivers, and Brown should be the third or fourth-highest owned WR in this game, behind Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and potentially Christian Kirk.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (GPP)
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN: Averaging 18.0 touches for 87.0 yards and 1.5 TDs in two games without Joe Mixon and projects for sub-5% ownership.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN: Pops with the No. 1 Leverage Plus/Minus on DraftKings and No. 4 mark on FanDuel at sub-5% projected ownership against the Steelers, who will be without slot cornerback Mike Hilton (shoulder) and have allowed above-expectation performances to slot receivers CeeDee Lamb (4/71/1), Willie Snead (5/106/0), Greg Ward Jr. (4/26/1), and Randall Cobb (4/95/1).
WR Tee Higgins, CIN: Explosive rookie coming off a bye.
RB James Conner, PIT: Projected for the third-highest RB ceiling on the slate at single-digit ownership.
TE Eric Ebron, PIT: Vance McDonald is on the reserve/COVOD-19 list and backup Zach Gentry has not been active all season, so we could see Ebron on the field nearly every snap against a Bengals defense allowing the second-most schedule adjusted yards per game to opposing tight ends (71.8, per Football Outsiders).
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (GPP)
QB Drew Lock, DEN: Lock has fired off 40-plus pass attempts in each of his past three games with an explosive receiving corps now healthy going against the 26th-ranked defense in pass DVOA at sub-5% projected ownership.
WRs Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler, TE Noah Fant, DEN: With Jeudy expected to be the highest-owned Broncos pass-catcher, all three of their other top four are strong pivots who pop among the top players in Leverage Plus/Minus at their respective positions.
RB Josh Jacobs, LV: Right behind Jones in ceiling projection at a fraction of the projected ownership.
Raiders DST: Lock has thrown at least one pick in all four starts since returning from injury and the Broncos are bottom-two in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to opposing DSTs.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (GPP)
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU: Worth a weather fade at low projected ownership against a Browns defense that has allowed two 400-plus yards passing performances over its past five games and allowed 34-plus rushing yards to Joe Burrow (6/34/1) and Derek Carr (6/41/0) over its past two.
WR Will Fuller, HOU: Projected for sub-5% ownership due to the weather, but should match up most often with Brows cornerback Terrance Mitchell, who has allowed the most fantasy points per route (1.04) and clocks in with the slowest 40-yard dash time (4.62) among Browns cornerbacks, per PFF.
RB Kareem Hunt, CLE: Highest-ceiling game (101 scrimmage yards, 2 total TDs in Week 2 against Cincinnati) came despite Nick Chubb, who is expected to make his return from a knee injury, getting 23 touches. Hunt ranks first among RBs in Leverage Plus/Minus on DraftKings and No. 4 on FanDuel.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (GPP)
WR Davante Adams, GB: Projected for the highest ceiling on the slate among non-QBs, yet is expected to attract roughly one-half to one-third of the ownership of Jones. Easy to afford with all of the discount RB options available.
RB James Robinson, JAX: Has handled 132-of-151, or 87.4% of Jacksonville’s non-QB rush attempts, and the player with the second-most, Laviska Shenault Jr. (11) is out. The Packers rank 20th in run-defense DVOA and have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs in all scoring formats.
WR DJ Chark, JAX: Chark erupted for 7/146/1 in Jake Luton’s first start, and with Green Bay’s top corner Jaire Alexander (concussion, doubtful) unlikely to go, Chark is worth playing if No. 2 corner Kevin King (quad, questionable) also misses.
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (GPP)
QB Justin Herbert, LAC: Has scored fewer than 23 fantasy points in only 1-of-7 starts as a pro and is capable of more than enough rushing production (4.1/23.7/0.29) to hang with the top dogs at QB.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (GPP)
QB Carson Wentz, PHI: Projected to be 2-4% owned against a Giants defense that gave up 359 yards to Wentz in the first matchup and 387 combined to Kyle Allen and Alex Smith last Week.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI: Scrimmage-yard totals of 131, 107, 74, 99, and 107 in his five games played and should see less than half as much ownership as Jones.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI: Explosive rookie coming off a bye.
Eagles DST: Daniel Jones is due after failing to commit a turnover for the first time all yea last week.
Giants DST: Wentz has been Jones in a green jersey this season, leading the league with 12 interceptions and 32 sacks taken.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (GPP)
WR Robert Woods, LAR: Seattle will be without cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar (knee) and Shaquill Griffin (hamstring), and Woods projects to be lower owned than Cooper Kupp. Even though Kupp (26.1%) has a higher target share than Woods (19.9%), Woods has one more touch than Kupp on the year thanks to a 16/102/2 rushing line.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (GPP)
WR Michael Thomas: Thomas is healthy and not facing the Bucs for the first time this year, and he’s at his lowest price since last October and is always liable to be the overall WR1.
TE Jared Cook, NO: Tight end-blanketing safety Jacquiski Tartt (toe, IR) is done for the year, and Cook is expected to be in under 1% of lineups, giving up the top Leverage Plus/Minus at his position.
WR Richie James Jr., SF: Thought he may attract too much buzz after going 9/184/1 last week, but is expected to garner single-digit ownership. Worth a play based on absurd yard after catch ability that has led to a ridiculous 337 yards after the catch on 24 career receptions (14.0).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (GPP)
Entire Bucs Offense: The Panthers are ranked 26th in DVOA and the Bucs are one of six teams on the slate with an implied point total of 28 or more, yet Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, and Ronald Jones are all projected to be under 5% owned.
QB Teddy Bridgewater, CAR: Provides massive leverage on Davis, who is expected to be in 40% or more of lineups, and could see high volume of Tampa Bay gets a lead and/or Davis gets stonewalled by Tampa’s No. 1 run defense. Davis is averaging 5.4 receptions over the past eight games, so the two are also stackable together.
WR Robby Anderson, CAR: Top Projected Plus/Minus among WRs on FanDuel at modest projected ownership (9-12%).
WR DJ Moore, CAR: Lowest DK price since Nov. 10, 2019.
Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions (GPP)
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS: Could have been chalk if all the RB value hadn’t opened up; now will likely land in under 10% of lineups against a Lions defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing backfields.
WR Cam Sims, WAS: Has played 82% of the snaps over the past two games and busted out with a 3/110/0 line last week. Should matchup up most in coverage with Lions rookie cornerback Jeffery Okudah, who has allowed the second-most yards per route (2.00, per PFF) of any starting corner on the slate.
WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET: Has operated mostly as a decoy this season but has scored i back-to-back games and has seen seven red-zone targets in the four games Kenny Golladay has missed or left early.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET: Hockenson (toe, questionable) will see ownership curbed by his injury designation, but he has the second-highest projected ceiling on the slate among TEs against a Washington defense that ranks dead last in DVOA vs. tight ends
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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network who hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
Pictured: Kyler Murray
Photo Credit: Norm Hall/Getty Images
