When it comes to projecting NFL player props, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using our Player Props Tool, we can easily identify the biggest edges based on any differences between his projections and the props on PrizePicks to target the ones with the most value.
Let’s run through the three biggest edges for Patriots-Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks: Patriots-Falcons
Damien Harris Under 50.5 Rushing Yards
New England will look to minimize injuries with the bye still not coming until Week 14. So given that, the success of rookie Rhamonde Stevenson and the presence of Brandon Bolden, I don’t anticipate Harris receiving his normal workload.
Even when healthy, Harris has rarely seen more than a 50% snap share. Since Week 4, here are the percentages for Harris in the New England offense: 33.9%, 42%, 46.6%, 53.9% and 42.4%.
I expect a true committee tonight, with as many as four running backs seeing work.
Atlanta has allowed only 840 rushing yards to opposing running backs, and is much more vulnerable through the air. Harris has only four total receptions over the past five games, and doesn’t project to be as involved in the offense as most may think.
We project Harris for just 35 rushing yards, giving this prop a 10 out of 10 rating per Koerner.
Russell Gage Over 3.5 Receptions
This is definitely a leap-of-faith play, with Gage registering zero receptions in two of the past three weeks. But on a short week at home with a 47-point total, I’m willing to take that chance.
Bill Belichick is certainly known for limiting the best offensive option of his opponents. With Calvin Ridley out, that projects to be rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, who can wreck a game with his incredible explosiveness. Gage often becomes a forgotten option, who held true to form in Week 9 against New Orleans. Playing opposite Marshon Lattimore, Gage registered seven receptions on eight targets in a pass-heavy Atlanta game script.
The Falcons rank dead-last in Football Outsiders’ rush offense DVOA, so I don’t anticipate them having much success against the Patriots. As a result, the Falcons will need to pass, and Gage will need to be involved.
We project the 25-year-old wideout for 4.4 receptions, which is 25.7% above this total. This is a 7-rated prop by Koerner in our tool.
Hunter Henry Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
We’re backing the over on Henry’s receiving yardage based solely on line differential — most sites have this line at 33.5 or 32.5, giving us a lot of extra value with the PrizePicks line of 23.5 yards.
Henry is averaging almost a 70% snap share on the season, and has beaten this total in eight of the Patriots’ 10 games. He’s a top red-zone receiving target, ranking first among all tight ends with seven total touchdowns. Henry has enough athleticism to beat this total with just one catch, as he did in Week 8 against the Chargers.
We project Henry for 30.5 receiving yards with a mean of 35 yards, a much higher value than this total. Fellow tight end Jonnu Smith is still questionable for tonight. If he is ruled out, I expect this total to rise quickly.