When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using our Player Props Tool on Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest discrepancies between his projections and the Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks to target the ones with the most value as the Vikings head to Chicago to take on the Bears.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Props: Vikings-Bears
Kirk Cousins Under 21 Pass Completions
This is a play based on simple math.
Cousins has beaten this number in three of the pass five weeks, but each of those games have been very high scoring, with an average total of 58.4 points. And even with those high totals, Cousins failed to his this total in their last game against the Steelers (14) and against the 49ers (20).
Minnesota wants to run the ball, especially in the cold weather at Soldier Field. It projects to be in the low 30s with 10 mph winds, far from optimal passing conditions. The Vikings have dealt with a struggling defense all season, and wants to control the ball as much as possible.
We project Cousins for just 16.5 completions, more than 21% below this total.
Justin Fields Over 34.5 Rushing Yards
The rushing ability of Fields is now an integral part of Chicago’s offensive attack. Just like Lamar Jackson, Taysom Hill and Jalen Hurts, the Bears have limited explosive options on offense, so Fields’ rushing ability is their most effective and versatile offensive weapon.
Fields has beaten this total in three of their past five games, including 103 yards against the 49ers in Week 8 and 74 yards against the Packers last week. The Vikings have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, so Fields should easily exceed this total at home against a division rival.
We project Fields for 42 rushing yards.
Justin Jefferson Under 89.5 Receiving Yards
Jefferson has been on fire this season, but I project him to fall short of this receiving yardage total against the division rival.
Similar to the Ravens against Davante Adams on Sunday, the Bears will need to limit opportunties to the Vikings’ biggest passing game threat. Veteran wideout Adam Thielen is a game-time decision, which could leave them shorthanded at wide receiver yet again.
This play is tethered to Cousins completion prop, which we have projected far under the corresponding total. The weather conditions and a huge home-field advantage have this game trending toward a lower-scoring contest.
Jefferson can have a solid receiving day and still fall short of this number, similar to like he did last week against the Steelers. Without Thielen, Jefferson tallied 79 receiving yards and a touchdown, still hitting his under on this prop.
Given his recent overall production, I project most will be on the over. We will go the opposite direction.