When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using our Player Props Tool, we can easily identify the biggest discrepancies between Koerner’s projections and Browns-Steelers props on PrizePicks to target the ones with the most value for this Monday Night Football showdown.
Let’s dive in.
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NFL Props: Browns-Steelers
Najee Harris Over 67.5 Rush Yards
The one thing we know about Najee Harris is: He gets volume.
Harris has averaged 17.9 carries per game at an average of 3.7 yards per carry. That puts him right at this number, but I project this as Harris’ floor against the Browns. When these teams first met on Oct. 31, Harris saw a season-high 26 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown. It was a 15-10 victory for the Steelers, which aligns with expectations for tonight’s game given the 3-point spread and 43-point total (check real-time NFL odds here).
Harris has beat this prop in four of Pittsburgh’s last six home games, and faces a Cleveland defense that allows the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Browns rank just 18th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA, giving me confidence that Harris can reach 70 yards at home against a division rival.
Ben Roethlisberger Under 21 Completions
With Harris’ rushing attempt total set near 20 on most sites, I don’t see the Steelers’ passing game getting enough volume to beat this number.
In 29 career games against Cleveland, Roethlisberger is averaging just 17.9 completions per game. Even in the last four contests against the Browns, Roethlisberger is still under this number at just 20.7 completions per game.
In their earlier matchup this season, Harris rushed a season-high 26 times and Roethlisberger completed 22 passes. The Browns rank 29th in neutral-game script pace and 30th when trailing by seven points or more. Cleveland will try to grind this game to a slow crawl, similar to their first meeting with Pittsburgh.
I project a slow-paced AFC North battle with both running games being featured over less efficient passing attacks.
Baker Mayfield Under 215.5 Pass Yards
Baker Mayfield is already averaging just 217 passing yards per game and now heads to Pittsburgh for a brutally cold game against the Steelers. The Browns will lean on their rushing attack with Nick Chubb and potentially Kareem Hunt, who is still questionable to return.
In six career games against Pittsburgh, Mayfield has only averaged 184.3 passing yards per game. He is averaging just 11.9 yards per completion this season, which would place him under this number based on his career 17.3 completions per game against Pittsburgh.
In a low-scoring game between two elite defenses, it is not hard to fade an average NFL quarterback on a run-first attack. We project Mayfield for 212.5 passing yards, slightly below this total.