One of the best ways to enjoy Monday Night Football is to bet player props. And when it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
His projections power our Action Labs Props Tool, which we can use to easily identify the biggest edges on PrizePicks. Let’s take a closer look at tonight’s matchup between the Giants and Chiefs.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks For Giants-Chiefs
Mecole Hardman Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
The Giants’ pass defense ranks among the league-average statistically, but has allowed big performances to wide receivers throughout the season.
The following sample of stat lines from prior opponents reinforces the problem:
- Cooper Kupp: 9 recs, 130 yards, 2 TDs
- CeeDee Lamb: 4 recs, 84 yards, TD
- Amari Cooper: 3 recs, 60 yards, TD
- Jerry Jeudy: 6 recs, 72 yards (injured)
- Terry McLaurin: 11 recs, 107 yards, TD
- Marquez Callaway: 2 recs, 74 yards
Mecole Hardman has disappointed with the Chiefs this season, but has still beat this number in three of their seven games. And over his career, Hardman has also averaged more than 39 receiving yards per game at home with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
Koerner projects Hardman for 40.6 receiving yards.
Daniel Jones Over 20.5 Pass Completions
As a 10-point road underdog (check real-time NFL odds here), we certainly predict game script to support the over on Daniel Jones’ pass completions prop. Most books have this line at 21.5, creating even more value at PrizePicks.
New York has averaged only 24.1 rushing attempts per game, which is even skewed by 31 rushing attempts in last week’s surprising 25-3 blowout win over Carolina. The Giants are averaging 64 plays per game, which should translate to almost 40 pass attempts by Jones. At his current 63.5% completion rate, that equates to about 25 completions per game.
Jones has beat this number in every game this season, except when he was injured at Dallas. We project Jones for 21.9 completions tonight.
Daniel Jones Over 20.5 Rushing Yards
The Chiefs have been one of the most generous teams to quarterback rushing yards in the league, allowing 241 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, including four rushing touchdowns.
Jones’ rushing ability has become an essential part of the New York offensive attack, especially without Saquon Barkley in the backfield. In the two games without Barkley this season, Jones is averaging 33 rushing yards per game.
This number has started to rise at most books as high as 22.5 yards. We project Jones for 24 rushing yards and love the extra two yards of value.