When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using our Player Props Tool on Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest discrepancies between his projections and the Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks to target the ones with the most value as the Giants head to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for MNF
Mike Evans Under 4.5 Receptions
This is a pick based on historical trends. Since Antonio Brown arrived in Tampa Bay, Mike Evans has actually performed better with Brown on the field. Possibly due to defensive schemes, Evans has seen more production in all categories despite Brown siphoning targets.
With the likely return of tight end Rob Gronkowski, I’m projecting Evans to fall below this 4.5 reception total. He has exactly two receptions in three of the past four games, with two of those contests featuring heaving passing volume. I expect Tampa Bay to enjoy a majority of positive game script as double-digit favorites at home, decreasing the chances Evans hits this prop.
Add in coverage from Giants cornerback James Bradberry, and I’m taking the under of Evans at 4.5 receptions.
Kadarius Toney Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
The Giants will need to score to keep this game close, which means a heavy passing rate for quarterback Daniel Jones. While Kadarius Toney’s production has been volatile, I’m backing the explosive rookie wideout to beat this low receiving yardage total.
Toney is New York’s most explosive receiving option, carrying 4.43 speed with elite burst. He has a fourth-best 77.8% catch rate, and tallied 23 receptions in the four games prior to last week. This includes challenging matchups with Trevon Diggs (Dallas) and Jalen Ramsey (Rams).
The Giants have not used Toney on a consistent basis, tallying just one reception in a Week 9 loss to Las Vegas. However, he is facing a Buccaneers pass defense that is allowing the sixth-most scheduled-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
With Sterling Shepard ruled out (quad), Toney’s opportunity increases even more. His receiving yardage prop varies greatly from other books, ranging from 38.5 yards (FanDuel) to 42.5 yards (PointsBet). We project Toney for 44.5 receiving yards, and Sean Koerner grades this as a 7-rated prop out of 10 on his PlayerProp Tool.
Leonard Fournette Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
The lead Tampa Bay running back has dominated the backfield workload for the Buccaneers. Entering the season in a projected RBBC, Fournette has now earned a consistent 60% snap share since Week 4. The Bucs are coming off two consecutive losses and will be focused on snapping their losing streak with a dominant performance.
In a game with an 11-point spread, I expect Fournette to hit his 14 carry average of the past four games — at his 4.3 yards per carry, that projects to 60.2 rushing yards. He has beaten this prop in four of the Bucs’ past six games, with the only exceptions being the two games they lost. We project Fournette for 64 rushing yards on our FantasyLabs PlayerProps tool. This line is well below most books, including five yards below Fournette’s rushing yardage prop on DraftKings.