NFL Preseason DFS Breakdown (Thursday, Aug. 10): Pierre Strong Jr. Leads the Way

Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

If you’re new to preseason DFS, it’s completely different than it is during the regular season. Instead of looking to the players at the top of the depth chart, we’re going to focus on the players at the bottom. Finding the players who are going to see the most snaps each week is the main goal, and those players tend to be the backups early in the preseason.

Combing through the news is also extremely important. Not every coach treats the preseason the same way, so finding out which players will play is a bit more difficult than it is during the regular season.

Fortunately, we do have our NFL Models to help. We have projections available for all four teams on Friday, so we’re not exactly flying blind.

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Let’s dive into some of my top plays for Thursday’s slate.

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Drew Lock owns the top marks in our NFL Models, and it’s easy to see why. Geno Smith is not expected to suit up in the team’s first preseason contest, leaving Lock and Holton Ahlers as the only other QBs on the roster. Head coach Pete Carroll has already stated that Lock will start the first preseason game and “play a lot,” so he gets the edge.

Lock was never able to grab control of the quarterback position in Denver, struggling to an 8-13 record while averaging 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt. He also led the league in interceptions in 2020, the only year where he started more than five games.

That said, Lock has the pedigree to be a capable backup. He was a second-round pick back in 2019, and he had success in college. He also brings some athleticism to the table, running a 4.69 40-yard dash at the combine. That puts him in the 80th percentile for the position.

Lock probably won’t have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett available at his disposal, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be the best player on the field. Dee Eskridge is also available to suit up, despite being suspended for the first six games of the regular season. That would be two excellent targets for Lock to lean on.

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Other Options

• Holton Ahlers – He’s the other guy in Seattle. He could see just as much playing time as Lock, although he won’t have the same caliber of weapons alongside him.
• Jaren Hall – Hall and Nick Mullens are expected to split the QB reps for the Vikings, with Mullens drawing the start. However, it’s unclear how much Mullens will play as a veteran, so Hall could see more opportunities. Hall was a fifth-round pick in 2023, so the team likely wants to see as much as they can from him during the preseason.
• Bailey Zappe – Mac Jones is not expected to play vs. the Texans, so Zappe will likely draw the start. However, unlike the other names on this list, Zappe saw legit NFL competition in 2022. The Patriots may not want to risk him in the preseason, so he’s not a priority target.

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NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Unlike at quarterback, the Patriots are the clear top team to target at RB. They only have five running backs on their roster at the moment, and two of them (Rhamondre Stevenson and Ty Montgomery) are not expected to play. That leaves just three players to handle most of the opportunities.

The remaining options are headlined by a pair of 2022 draft picks. Pierre Strong Jr. was the team’s fourth-round pick last season, while Kevin Harris was a sixth-round selection. Both players have nearly identical projections in our NFL Models, so it’s hard to give one a clear edge over the other.

From a metrics standpoint, I’m giving the edge to Strong. His PlayerProfiler page makes him look like one of the fastest running backs in the league. He ranks in the 99th percentile for 40-yard dash time, 95th percentile for Speed Score, and 86th percentile for Burst Score. He averaged 7.0 yards per carry in college, albeit at a small school in South Dakota State.

Strong didn’t get much of an opportunity to make an impact as a rookie, with Stevenson and Damien Harris handling most of the running back responsibilities. That said, what we did see from Strong was extremely impressive. He racked up 100 yards on just 10 carries – including a 44-yard scamper – while catching all seven of his targets for 42 yards.

With Harris now in Buffalo, the team has an opening behind Stevenson this season. Expect them to give Strong an opportunity to win the job.

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Other Options

• Kevin Harris – Harris is more of a plodder, but those kinds of backs can have immense value during the preseason. There’s a chance he sees more opportunities than Strong, so both Patriots’ RBs are pretty interchangeable in your lineups.
• DeWayne McBride – McBride is the other “top” option at RB on Thursday. The Vikings are another team with just five players at the position, and one of them was signed less than a week ago. Kene Nwangwu has also been nursing an injury, while Alexander Mattison likely won’t play. McBride was a seven-round pick in 2023, and those types of players tend to get tons of work during the preseason. Expect him to lead the Vikings’ backfield in carries.
• Bryant Koback – The top four players at running back in Seattle have missed time recently, so it’s unclear how much any of them will play. That leaves Koback as their top option. The 2022 undrafted free agent has solid pass-catching chops and underrated athleticism, making him an intriguing option.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

The Patriots also stand out at receiver on this slate. They have the top two players in our NFL Models: Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte. Both players were sixth-round picks in 2023, with Boutte entering the draft with higher expectations. He was expected to be the next great LSU receiver, but he never lived up to the hype in college or during the pre-draft process.

Meanwhile, Douglas has drawn rave reviews throughout camp. He was working with the No. 1 offense at times during the offseason, and he was a part of the three-receiver set working with Zappe in the team’s last practice.

Douglas played at a much smaller school in Liberty, but he was far more impressive than Boutte in college. He had a 30.6% target market share, putting him in the 91st percentile, and racked up 993 receiving yards across 13 games in his final season. He followed that up by running a 4.44 40-yard dash at the combine.

Douglas is going to be limited to slot duty at just 5’8” and 179 pounds, but that’s perfectly acceptable in the preseason. In fact, that might be a plus. Receiver scores are typically pretty low during the preseason, so nabbing a few catches is all Douglas really needs to do to be relevant. He should be able to get that done.

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Other Options

• Kayshon Boutte – Boutte grades out behind Douglas for the Patriots, but he’s still the No. 2 receiver on the slate. He should see plenty of snaps alongside Douglas.
• Brandon Powell – The Vikings are expected to play first-round pick Jordan Addison in this contest, though he likely won’t be on the field for long. That leaves Powell as the next man up. He was acquired by the Vikings this offseason after spending the past few years in Los Angeles, and unlike most of the players on this slate, he does have some NFL success on his resume. He has 44 career catches and two touchdowns across four professional seasons.
• Jake Bobo and Cody Thompson – These are the two Seahawks receivers projecting for the most points in our NFL Models. Bobo is an undrafted rookie, while Thompson has been in Seattle for multiple years. That makes me lean toward Bobo, though he’s pretty uninspiring as a prospect.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Tight end is easily the worst position in preseason DFS. Finding any production at the position is extremely difficult, with most teams employing lots of bodies at the start of preseason.

Colby Parkinson is someone that at least belongs on an NFL field. He’s coming off the best season of his career in 2022, finishing with 25 catches, 322 yards, and two touchdowns. That said, he’s still just third on the Seahawks’ depth chart, trailing Noah Fant and Will Dissly.

That means Parkinson should see the field on Thursday, and his size makes him a legit threat in the red zone. He checks in at 6’7” and 251 pounds, so he could be a favorite target for Lock around the goal line.

Ultimately, it’s hard to get too excited about anyone at tight end. Your best bet is to just diversify your portfolio and hope to get lucky.

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Other Options

• Dalton Schultz – The Texans have been absent from this write-up so far, largely because they intend on getting their starters some reps. That’s a hindrance at the other positions, but it could be a positive at tight end. One or two drives could be enough to make Schultz a viable option at a weak position.
• Johnny Lumpkin – Lumpkin is at the bottom of the Patriots’ depth chart as an undrafted rookie free agent. However, he actually leads all tight ends in our NFL Models.
• Ben Sims – Sims is the undrafted rookie tight end for the Vikings, but he actually has an intriguing athletic profile. He ran a 4.64 40-yard at the combine at 6’5” and 254 pounds, making him an NFL-caliber athlete. He also displayed some pass-catching chops at Baylor, catching 31 passes in each of his final two seasons. He’s my preferred option at the position for the Vikes.