After an entertaining weekend, Week 4 concludes with an NFC showdown on Monday night football. The Seattle Seahawks head to the Big Apple for a primetime battle with the New York Giants. The Giants are off to a dismal start this season, giving up 98 points through their first three games of the season. Worse, their offense has put up just 43 points, representing one of the worst point differentials in the entire NFL. Unfortunately for the Giants, we’re betting that trend persists onto Monday night as the Seahawks build off their recent 37-point performances.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Seahawks-Giants NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Geno Smith Higher 14.5 Rushing Yards
Who better to lead off with than a Geno Smith pick? The Seahawks signal-caller has been a revelation early this season, leading the team to victory over the past two weeks. There are a number of intriguing avenues to pursue with respect to his player props, but we’re expecting Smth to go north of his rushing yards for just the second time this season.
Smith’s passing metrics are consistent with his prior year benchmarks. He’s still hovering around a 69% completion rating with nearly 250 passing yards per game and 10.5 yards per completion. Passing metrics notwithstanding, Smith’s rushing stats have taken a hit.
The reigning Comeback Player of the Year has taken off just eight times this year, garnering a paltry 22 yards for just 2.8 yards per carry. Those metrics put Smith well below his career averages. Throughout his 10 years in the league, the Pro Bowler averages 4.7 yards per carry and 16.8 yards per game. As we saw last year, one of Smith’s biggest assets is his ability to run for yards when needed, and thankfully he’s a natural progression candidate over the coming games.
Moreover, the Giants continue to let opponents run all over them. New York ranks sixth-last in the NFL, giving up 138.0 rushing yards per game. That’s in line with their standard from last season, in which opponents averaged 146.3 yards per game against them.
Although the temptation is taking over on some of his passing props, we’re expecting Smith to exploit the Giants’ porous run defense.
Watch him go north of 14.5 rushing yards on Monday night.
Matt Breida Higher 13.5 Receiving Yards
The absence of Saquon Barkley has thrust Matt Breida into a more prominent role with the Giants. With Saquon projected to miss his second straight game, Breida is poised to resume his role as the lead back out of New York’s backfield. The rushing game has taken a back seat for the Giants, but Breida should figure prominently in the aerial attack against the Seahawks.
Playing from behind most of last week negatively impacted Breida’s rushing stats. The 28-year-old toted the ball just four times versus the San Francisco Giants, garnering 17 yards on the ground. Unfortunately for New York, they will likely be playing from behind again on Monday night, meaning the emphasis will once again be on the passing game.
Breida has been a safe outlet for Daniel Jones when needed. He caught all three of his targets last week, albeit for just one yard. Overall, Breida hasn’t missed a catch so far this season and he should have more room to go off against a generous Seahawks passing defense.
Seattle ranks dead last in the NFL, giving up 328 passing yards per game. All three opponents they’ve faced have gone north of 300, leaving little doubt that even Daniel Jones can find pockets to attack. Breida will continue to be Jones’ check-down option, helping him go above his modest receiving yards projection.
Daniel Jones Lower 34.5 Rushing Yards
Oddsmakers may have gotten this one wrong. Daniel Jones enters Monday night’s tilt with a lofty 34.5 rushing yard prop. A few factors have played into a more robust rushing attack from Jones early this season, but it’s unlikely he’ll be tasked with replicating those metrics against the Seahawks.
The Giants opened the season with a rainy Sunday night showdown against the Dallas Cowboys. In that contest, Jones ran the ball 13 times for 48 yards. The Giants quarterback followed that up with a 59-yard effort against the Arizona Cardinals, breaking off several big plays throughout the contest.
However, the Seahawks play a more stifling brand of run defense, and it’s more likely that Jones matches last week’s five-yard rushing total he mustered against the 49ers. Seattle’s 79.3 rushing yards allowed per game is on par with the Niners’ 66.0, matching the ferocity that Jones saw last week.
As is usually the case, we’re anticipating the Giants will be playing from behind against the Seahawks. That means more emphasis on the passing game as they try to exploit Seattle’s more glaring weakness. Jones should be comfortable sitting back and dealing from the pocket instead of taking off in the running game.
Consequently, Jones should hopefully stay beneath his rushing yard projection.