So you had a successful season of regular season NFL DFS – why not try your hand at some postseason action? How different can it be? Honestly, quite a bit. If you’re looking for a deeper look at some of the strategy behind playing these shorter slates of games, give this article from our own Graham Barfield a read.
Essentially, some of the key things to keep in mind when you’re constructing your lineups for these short slates are:
- Don’t worry about leaving a bit of salary on the table. Even more than the regular season, focus on getting your optimal plays into your lineup. If that means you have an extra $1,000 to $2,000 of your budget remaining, don’t fret over it.
- There will be overlap. With such a limited player pool it’s inevitable that our lineups will have a significant amount of overlap. This recent article from JayCabay12 offers a great look at being contrarian while still utilizing chalk plays. It’s not necessarily aimed at short slates specifically, but the ideas within the article will prove useful in your lineup construction this week.
- Be mindful of your game selection. While this is something we should be doing every week, it’s very important on these short slates. With the significant amount of overlap that is likely to occur, the level of variance will increase. This can lead to many head-to-head matchups being decided by only a player or two. Keep this in mind when determining how much of your bankroll to utilize and how you will distribute it between the different formats.
Now that we’ve got all of that out of the way, let’s get into these games!
Green Bay (-1) at Washington
Implied Total: 23.25 – 22.25, O/U: 45.5
Not exactly a matchup many of us would have saw coming at the beginning of the season, huh? Despite much of the public money being placed on Washington, we’ve had a reverse line movement take place over the course of this week, implying that many of the sharps are on Green Bay.
Aaron Rodgers’ average stat line over the previous three weeks is far from inspiring: 215 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception. On the other side of that, we have a Washington defense that has allowed a healthy average stat line of 350 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0.67 interceptions over that same time period. With many people off of the Green Bay offense, Rodgers’ ownership may be depressed as compared to the other top quarterback options in this slate.
If you’re choosing between Eddie Lacy and James Starks this week, keep in mind that Lacy has been on the field for 59.62% of snaps compared to 34.79% for Starks and has out-touched him 39 to 24. Starks does offer a nice value on DraftKings, with a Bargain Rating of 86% though. The coaching staff did appear to lose confidence in Starks due to his fumbling issues, but worked him back in last week.
At wide receiver we’ll have to consider Randall Cobb, James Jones and Davante Adams. Of the three, Jones has been playing the most consistent of late, with a 100-yard receiving game last week and an 82-yard, one-touchdown performance three weeks ago. Both Adams and Jones do have six redzone targets apiece over the previous three weeks without a touchdown reception among them, so both are decent candidates for regression. While Cobb has been incredibly disappointing all year, he does continue to see targets and his price is appealing on FanDuel, where he holds a 91% Bargain Rating.
Richard Rodgers has been extremely boom or bust all season and one look at his game logs over the past five weeks can perfectly illustrate this – sandwiched between a monster eight-catch, 146-yard outing and last week’s seven-catch game, he recorded three consecutive one-catch games. He does a lot of his work in the redzone, where the Redskins have allowed 19 touchdown receptions this season, so there is some merit to utilizing him as a salary relief option, especially if you’re playing on FanDuel where he’s priced below many of the other starting tight ends. This offense as a whole has the best matchup on paper this week, which should keep many of these skill position players on your radar.
If you’re looking to pay down at quarterback – particularly on DraftKings – Kirk Cousins has played spectacular over the past few weeks, throwing 11 touchdowns in the past two and a half games. The Packers do represent the toughest test that he has faced in some time though. If you elect to play Cousins you’re essentially betting that the Packers will struggle to shutdown Jordan Reed.
Reed is the best tight end option on this slate – and realistically the best tight end option in general at the moment. Excluding last week’s game that he played limited snaps in, he has averaged 8.33 receptions, 111 receiving yards, and 1.67 touchdowns over his three previous contests. He should be the highest-owned player on this slate though, so keep that in mind when constructing GPP lineups.
Looking at the other passing game options, DeSean Jackson stands out as the best play. Cornerback Sam Shields looks very iffy to play this week and Green Bay has given up 27 passing plays of at least 30 yards this year. Jackson is an excellent value on DraftKings, with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder will see work as well and it’s worth noting that Garcon has now recorded a touchdown reception in his previous three games. Crowder did have a nice game last week, but it was also without Jackson in the lineup.
This running game has many questions surrounding it at the moment, as coach Jay Gruden has stated that the final active running back spot will come down to either Matt Jones or Chris Thompson. Washington opted to rely more upon Pierre Thomas over Alfred Morris in Jones’ absence Week 16, so if we see Jones miss, Thomas could make for an under-the-radar play with his passing game involvement. Should Washington find themselves in the lead, Morris would likely be called upon to run out the clock, but his lack of involvement in passing situations should limit him to a GPP-only play.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Cincinnati
Implied Total: 24.25 – 21.25, O/U: 45.5
The Steelers boast the highest implied team total on this slate and their passing game options will likely be high owned across the board.
Ben Roethlisberger struggled on the road in Cincinnati a month ago, posting 282 passing yards with no touchdowns and an interception. The Bengals pass defense has been incredibly tough on opposing pass defenses all season, allowing the second-fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks all year (14.35). Nevertheless, Big Ben should see some additional opportunities in this game with DeAngelo Williams likely to sit out with an injury. With Antonio Brown as his top receiving option, Roethlisberger is always in play at the quarterback position.
Speaking of Brown, he’s still the safest bet at wide receiver on the DFS landscape at the moment. Despite having a “down” game against the Bengals last month, he still registered seven receptions for 87 yards. He has developed some slightly disturbing home/road splits of late, last week’s game against the dreadful Browns notwithstanding. Over the previous six weeks, Brown has averaged 6.67 receptions, 66.33 yards, and no touchdowns on the road, as opposed to 11.33 receptions, 148.67 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns at home. With Williams out, we should see even more short, high-percentage targets headed his way though. Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton are both in play, but Bryant has been highly disappointing of late and as such, he may be a target in GPPs as he’s burned many owners over the past few games. On the other hand, Wheaton has had a touchdown in two of his last three games and is reasonably priced on both sites, particularly at $4,000 on DraftKings.
The Steelers have utilized Heath Miller heavily against the zone defense often employed by the Bengals in the previous two matchups this year, with Miller recording 10 receptions in each contest. This running game will likely be headed by Fitzgerald Toussaint in Williams’ absence. Toussaint has only 18 carries all year and is a risky-but-cheap play that could be worth utilizing, if just for the potential to score a short touchdown or two. There are red flags surrounding this matchup, but it’s difficult to get off of this explosive offense in a game that they should control, especially if you elect to play cash games this week.
On the other side of the ball, we’ll see A.J. McCarron likely forced to air the ball out plenty due to the stifling Steelers rush defense. McCarron is willing to take chances and did throw for 280 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh in relief of Andy Dalton a month ago. The Steelers have allowed 18.87 DraftKings points to the quarterback position this year and McCarron’s cheap pricing on all sites makes him an interesting play.
The Bengals will likely try to establish the run in an attempt to keep Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense off the field, meaning there could be early work for Jeremy Hill. Looking at his stat lines from the previous two matchups – 22 carries for 76 yards – it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to find much room to run. This could lead to more Giovani Bernard, though he has been extremely inefficient over the previous month, totaling 209 total yards.
A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert should all find themselves plenty involved in the passing game, with Green and Eifert making for nice pivots from the other high-priced options available this week. Green has 17 receptions for 250 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the two previous matchups with this exploitable Steelers’ pass defense this year. He’s struggled to produce much yardage with McCarron, but has three touchdowns in the four games he’s played with him. McCarron has targeted Jones 6.5 times per game over the past month, which is nice volume for a receiver at his price range. It’s also worth noting that Jones has the highest rating among wide receivers in our Tournament Model this week.
Eifert returned from his concussion struggles in Week 17 and immediately resumed scoring touchdowns. The Steelers are top 10 in fantasy points allowed to the tight end position this season on both DraftKings and FanDuel and have allowed eight receiving touchdowns to the position, making Eifert a worthwhile option if you’re considering fading Reed.
Kansas City (-3.5) at Houston
Implied Total: 21.75 – 18.25, O/U: 40
If we’d have known that both of these teams would be without their star running backs for much of this season, I doubt anyone would have predicted that we’d find them playing in a playoff matchup on Wild Card weekend. But here we are nonetheless.
Alex Smith is probably everyone’s least favorite quarterback to roster each week as he’s a boring, safe option. Yet despite this, he has exceeded his implied point total 14 times this year – an impressive feat. Pair that limited ceiling with the stout Houston Texans pass defense – they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position this year – and he’s not someone that will be on my radar.
At the running back position, we’ll likely see the split between Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West continue, with Ware getting any goal line carries that are available. Though both are very affordable, it’s difficult to imagine either finding much success against the Texans, especially factoring in their backfield split. While Ware would figure to be the running back with higher upside, keep in mind that Houston has only allowed one rushing touchdown over the second half of the season.
If Jeremy Maclin is able to play, he represents a nice pivot off of the higher-priced options due to his role in this offense. However, the Texans have been tough on opposing wide receivers, ranking fifth in DraftKings points allowed to the position all year. Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins were able to find success against this unit in recent weeks, keeping Maclin in play with his high target share.
If I’m looking anywhere on this offense outside of Maclin, it’s likely at tight end Travis Kelce. Houston has allowed nice games to Delanie Walker, Rob Gronkowski, and Charles Clay over recent weeks. The Chiefs D/ST has been playing at an elite level over much of the second half of the season and are right up there with the Seahawks as the top play of the week.
The Chiefs have allowed some success through the air this season, which could have surprisingly steady Brian Hoyer in play. Until last week, Hoyer had managed to throw for multiple touchdowns in every game that he had managed to finish this season, and with DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal, he does have decent upside. Speaking of Hopkins, he continues to see his heavy target load, registering 34 targets over the past three weeks. Kansas City has been tough on all opposing receivers not named Kamar Aiken over recent weeks, but none of these players boast the talent that Hopkins has. The elite wideout has our second-highest projection of the week.
Alfred Blue is a volume play, having racked up 56 carries over the previous three weeks. It will be tough sledding against this defense, but the workload should be there. Ryan Griffin is nothing more than a punt play at tight end and it’s worth paying up a bit for Heath Miller or Richard Rodgers if you’re opting to go that route.
Seattle (-5) at Minnesota
Implied Total: 22.25 – 17.25, O/U: 39.5
In the lowest over/under game on this slate, Seattle will come into Minnesota as a heavy favorite. In a game that they should be able to control, there are multiple options worth considering. Watch the weather closely leading up to this matchup, as it’s expected to be extremely cold, though the wind is not expected to be a factor.
Despite a reputation for huge playoff performances, Russell Wilson has actually produced only average statistics over his past playoff seasons. The Seahawks have opted to rely upon their running game heavily in the postseason, asking Wilson to throw only 25.25 passes per game. We’ve seen a different player this year though, and with Marshawn Lynch coming back from injury, we may see more passing from Wilson than which we’ve grown accustomed. We are, after all, only five weeks removed from him throwing for 274 yards and three touchdowns against this same Vikings defense.
Lynch makes for an intriguing play, as we’re not entirely certain what to expect from him. Knowing his mentality, he’ll likely push for his normal workload, but gameflow will likely dictate how much we see of him in this matchup. The Vikings have a quality rush defense, but did allow Thomas Rawls to turn in a nice game against them the last time the teams squared off.
At wide receiver Doug Baldwin will likely have heavy ownership and rightfully so. He’s been playing out of his mind and produced 94 receiving yards and two scores against the Vikings earlier this year. While Tyler Lockett’s big play ability always keeps him in play, he’s had some down weeks of late, as we’ve seen Jermaine Kearse step up and post either 70 receiving yards or a touchdown in each of the previous four weeks. Luke Willson is an afterthought in this offense and shouldn’t be on your radar. Seattle’s D/ST will likely be the highest-owned unit of the week and are an elite play if you can fit them in.
The options on the Minnesota side of the ball will be sparse. Adrian Peterson is the highest-priced running back on this slate and has scored three touchdowns in his past four games. The worry with him is gameflow though. If Seattle jumps out to a lead, we may not see AP get enough opportunities to pay off his exorbitant price tag.
Unless you’re looking for an extremely contrarian play at the quarterback position, Teddy Bridgewater shouldn’t really be on your radar. The young signal-caller has only two multi-touchdown games all year and will find it difficult to move the ball against this defense. Largely due to Minnesota’s play calling style, both Stefon Diggs and Mike Wallace have struggled to do anything through the air of late, with the duo combining for only a single game over 50 receiving yards over the past six contests.
Kyle Rudolph does have two games over the past five weeks with at least 50 receiving yards and the Seahawks have allowed production at times to the tight end position, though they’ve shored that up a bit recently. He’s an option if you’re looking for a super-contrarian stack with Bridgewater, but not one that I’d be looking to fit in unless you’re entering a large amount of tournament lineups.
Good luck with your lineups this weekend and remember to check our Player News page for all relevant updates throughout the next few days.
