The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Falcons at Buccaneers
After soundly beating the Falcons in Atlanta 31-24 in Week 1, the Buccaneers will play host to the second matchup of these two NFC South teams on Thursday Night Football. Atlanta is currently a three-point road favorite in what Vegas projects as the second-highest scoring game of the week (51.5). The Falcons are implied to score 27.25 points and the Buccaneers 24.25 in a game that could easily turn into a shoot-out.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
In their previous Week 1 matchup, Ryan scored 27.4 DraftKings fantasy points on 39 drop backs. He has since averaged 24.99 DK points per game on the season. The Bucs defense is reeling: They just gave up over 500 passing yards to Derek Carr and subsequently cut cornerback Johnthan Banks. They’ve given up passing touchdowns (14) and fantasy points (21.6) to opposing quarterbacks at a top-10 rate this year. Ryan leads all quarterbacks on this week’s slate with an 8.3 Y/A (yards per attempt) mark and has multiple touchdowns in five of seven games so far this season. That consistency makes him a fantastic cash-game option, and his 38.4-point projected DK ceiling (per our Player Models) makes him worth chasing in tournaments as well.
RB – Devonta Freeman
In his first game as the primary back in 2016, we saw a bit of 2015 Freeman: He scored a rushing and receiving touchdown while picking up over 20 points on DK. The Bucs’ run defense has been middling so far, ranking 16th in run DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) while allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. With Tevin Coleman likely remaining sidelined on the short week, Freeman should see plenty of volume in this matchup. He has seven DK Pro Trends and a projected point total of 20.9 — third-highest among all running backs this week — that should put him in consideration for cash and GPPs.
RB – Terron Ward
Ward played on just 17 snaps last week but was able to get seven touches in that span. His usage should remain about the same this week. Ward broke off a 26-yard run last week and showed play-making ability, but he’s only really interesting if Freeman is limited.
WR – Julio Jones
After hanging a 3-29-0 stat line last week, we may see some of the public off Julio in Week 9. Julio moves around the formation quite a bit but should run most of his routes against Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes on the outside. Hargreaves ranks as PFF’s 101st-ranked cornerback out of 118 qualifying CBs. Grimes, on the other hand, ranks ninth. It’ll be up to Kyle Shanahan to match up Julio against Hargreaves as much as he can considering the Tampa Bay cornerbacks stick to their respective sides. Five different wide receivers have already put up 18-plus points against the Bucs on FanDuel this season, and the Bucs are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Julio is in a prime bounce-back situation this week and should put up some big numbers even if he’s somewhat limited.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Sanu came through in a big way with Julio and Jacob Tamme both getting banged up last week. Sanu finished with a season-best 9-84-1 stat line and draws an interesting matchup this week against slot cornerback Jude Adjei-Barimah, who has a poor PFF grade of 50.2. Sanu’s inconsistent target totals (10-4-10 over the last three) make him hard to rely on in cash games, but he is interesting in tournaments. The Bucs are allowing the third-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers (11) on the year.
WR – Taylor Gabriel, Justin Hardy, and Aldrick Robinson
All three of these receivers have been wildly inconsistent so far this season in terms of snaps and targets. None of the three have projected FD floors higher than 2.2 points.
TE – Austin Hooper
With Tamme already ruled out for this matchup, it’s time for Atlanta to utilize one of their most efficient weapons that’s been held back on the depth chart. So far this season, Tamme has 210 yards on 31 targets. Hooper has 195 yards on just 11 targets. The third-round rookie from Stanford has impressed in his limited snaps so far and will get the starting role this week, as confirmed by head coach Dan Quinn. Hooper is priced at the minimum on both DK and FD and makes for a terrific punt play on either site.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
The Falcons are giving up the most fantasy points, most passing touchdowns, and second-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this year. They’ve given up four games of 25-plus fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and rank 22nd in pass DVOA. Winston had his best game of the season playing against Atlanta in Week 1, throwing for 281 passing yards and four touchdowns and accumulating 26.54 fantasy points in the process. Winston makes for a fine play in either cash or GPPs; only Dak Prescott has a higher Upside mark on FD than Winston.
RB – Antone Smith
Jacquizz Rodgers is expected to miss this week’s game, which will leave a heavy workload for Smith. Last week, Smith out-snapped Peyton Barber 22 to three. He saw five touches compared to Barber’s one. Smith is a dangerous running back anytime he touches the ball: All seven of his career touchdowns have been at least 35-plus yards in distance. Atlanta is allowing the second-most running back receptions and the seventh-most fantasy points on DK. Priced at the $3,000 minimum, Smith has a 96 percent Bargain Rating on DK and could provide a substantial return on investment this week.
RB – Peyton Barber
Barber’s limited touches and snaps last week have left him more in a reserve role. He’s a risky GPP dart given his usage concerns.
WR – Mike Evans
Evans just missed hauling in what would have been a 60-yard touchdown last week and instead finished with a rather disappointing 4-50-0 stat line. However, he’s gone six straight weeks with double-digit targets, and that volume is worth overlooking any inefficiencies in his game. After getting a cupcake matchup against the Raiders (who lost Sean Smith after the game’s first play), Evans draws a more difficult matchup with Atlanta’s Desmond Trufant. Trufant ranks as one of PFF’s top-25 ranked cornerbacks on the season, but Evans was able to finish with a 7-99-1 stat line against him in their earlier matchup. Evans leads the NFL in team target share (37.3 percent) over the last four games and should see heavy volume again in Week 9.
WR – Adam Humphries
Humphries has yet to take advantage of Vincent Jackson‘s departure from this offense, totaling just seven targets over his past two games. Despite being the second-leading receiver in snaps, Humphries has put up just 13.1 fantasy points over the past two weeks. Humphries has run 78 percent of his routes from the slot this season and should draw a lot of Brian Poole, another top-25 ranked cornerback by PFF. There are better punt plays to pursue this week than Humphries at his $3,100 salary on DK.
WR – Cecil Shorts
Shorts was held catch-less on his four targets last week against Oakland’s soft secondary and now faces an Atlanta secondary that is limiting opposing wide receivers to a -0.1 Plus/Minus on FD. Shorts should see decent opportunity in a game with a high Vegas total, but he remains a risky GPP play until we see him actually capitalize on his opportunities.
TE – Cameron Brate
The last time the Bucs played the Falcons, the Tampa Bay tight ends scored two touchdowns. Brate wasn’t one of those lucky touchdown recipients but should get plenty of looks in this one. Atlanta has given up receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns to opposing tight ends at a top-10 rate and ranks 18th in DVOA to the position. Brate is averaging just 3.7 targets over his past three games, but given the lack of options at wide receiver he remains a potential punt play at tight end with touchdown upside.
News Updates
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