The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Eagles at Giants
The Giants are currently three-point favorites for their divisional matchup against the Eagles. The current Vegas total of 43 points is the second-lowest of Week 9. The Giants are implied to score 22.8 points, while the Eagles are implied to score 20.3 points. It’s November in New York New Jersey and there are currently 11 mph winds in the forecast.
Philadelphia Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
According to our Trends tool, the Giants have held opposing quarterbacks to just 14.9 DraftKings points per game this season — a -1.81 Plus/Minus — and only two QBs have met or exceeded their salary-based expectations. The Giants are ranked 10th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric and ninth against the pass. Wentz has been held to less than 12 DK points in three of his last four starts and has averaged just 11.55 DK points during that time frame. His 4.7-point projected floor is currently the second-lowest projected floor in our Player Models, rendering him unplayable in cash games. That said, at just $5,100 on DK, where he has an 88 percent Bargain Rating, Wentz is worth a contrarian shot in GPPs — especially stacked with the $5,700 Jordan Matthews.
RB – Darren Sproles
Sproles has now played 113 more offensive snaps than Ryan Mathews and operated as the Eagles’ No. 1 running back last week, leading the team with 15 carries and an additional seven targets in the passing game. Sproles has been explosive with his opportunities, averaging 6.5 yards per carry over his last four games. Coach Doug Pederson was reluctant to call Sproles the starter early this week but said the Eagles “would make that determination” in the next few days. Today he said Mathews “is still the guy.” If Sproles were named the starter, he would be an interesting cash play at only $3,900 on DK. Follow our NFL News feed for updates.
RB – Ryan Mathews
Mathews has had less than 10 carries in four of the Eagles’ last six games. Also concerning is the fact that he’s played less than 11 snaps in three of the last five games. He has more fumbles (two) than touchdowns (one) in his last four games. Even if he is “still the guy,” Mathews is very hard to play at this point.
WR – Jordan Matthews
J-Matt is starting to trend in a positive direction, averaging 7.25 targets per game during the month of October. Matthews has a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he currently has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and is the third-rated wide receiver in our Cash Model. When he has previously been priced comparably and received a similar monthly target total, J-Matt has destroyed his salary-based expectations quite consistently. Matthews’ price and projected floor make him an excellent cash-game option this week.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
Green-Beckham has seen a steady increase in his offensive involvement over the past month. During that time, he has averaged five targets per game. Last week he played on 49 of 76 offensive snaps and was targeted nine times. Stacking Green-Beckham with Wentz would cost $8,100 on DK— $100 more than the minimum priced QB/WR stack — and would allow you to build an all-star team around them. DGB is worthy of a GPP dart this week.
WR – Nelson Agholor
Agholor plays a lot of snaps but produces very little. He has averaged 3.77 FD points per game in the month of October and is currently one of the eight worst-rated WRs in CSURAM88’s Player Model for FD. Per our Matchups Tool, Agholor will see his fair share of Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins, whose 83.2 Pro Football Focus grade ranks him as the 12th-best corner this season. There is nothing in the data that suggests playing Agholor is a sensible decision.
TE – Zach Ertz
Ertz has not had more than four catches or 37 yards in a game yet this season. He has averaged just 3.25 targets per game in his four games since returning from injury. The Giants are the ninth-best team defending tight ends this season (per FO). Ertz needs to score touchdowns to exceed value at this point and New York has allowed only one touchdown to TEs this season. There are better TE situations to invest in this week.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
Philadelphia ranks first in DVOA and first against the pass in 2016 (per FO). The Eagles have allowed the fifth-fewest points to quarterbacks this season. According to our Trends tool, the Eagles have held opposing QBs to a -3.96 Plus/Minus in 2016. Manning has not thrown for more than 238 yards in his last four starts and has thrown for less than 180 in two of those games; he threw nearly as many interceptions (three) as touchdowns (four) in the month of October. Manning is no more than a very scary GPP dart against this elite defense.
RB – Rashad Jennings
The Giants’ backfield picture is very cloudy and hard to predict. On the bright side, Jennings carried the ball more in his last game than he had since Week 2. More concerning is the fact that he’s rushed for less than 30 yards and had 13 or fewer carries in three of the four games he’s played in this season. Now there is noise out of New York about rookie Paul Perkins getting additional work. It would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the Giants running backs coming off the bye. If you’re feeling risky, however, the Eagles have been very average against the run this season: They have allowed the 16th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Jennings is currently the fourth-highest rated player in the Bales Player Model for DK.
RB – Paul Perkins
As stated above, there is noise in New York about Perkins’ role increasing in the offense. Until we see that actually happen, however, Perkins is too risky to count on. Perkins has averaged just 2.5 carries and two targets per game in his last four games. Follow our NFL News feed for updates on his potential playing time.
RB – Bobby Rainey
Rainey (calf) is questionable but expected to play. Over his last two games, he has accumulated four targets in total.
WR – Odell Beckham
The Giants’ bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for Beckham, who has been suffering from a hip injury. Beckham averaged 10 targets per game in the month of October. His 39 percent market share of Air Yards is the seventh-best mark in the NFL over the past four weeks. Our Matchups tool has OBJ getting some shots at Nolan Carroll, whose 46.1 PFF grade ranks him 107th among NFL corners this season. Even at less than 100 percent, Beckham is an elite play in GPPs with FantasyLabs projected ownership between nine to 12 percent in DK’s Millionaire Maker because of his Upside.
Beckham (hip) is no longer on the team’s injury report. He’s playing this week.
WR – Sterling Shepard
Shepard’s productivity has dropped off considerably since the first three games of the season, but his opportunity has not. In fact, the 7.25 targets per game he has averaged in his four most recent games is nearly a full target per game better than the 6.3 he averaged in his first three games this season. Shepard has an 80 percent Bargain Rating on FD, where his price has decreased by $1,300 in the past month. Players comparable to Shepard who have experienced a similar Salary Change have traditionally manufactured a +3.24 Plus/Minus on FD with 66.7 percent Consistency.
WR – Victor Cruz
Cruz has averaged 6.5 targets per game over the past four weeks. He has scored at least 10 DK points in five of seven games this season. Priced at just $3,800 on DK, Cruz is a cheap way to buy some targets and could round out your lineup if you need a player priced at $4,000 or less.
TE – Larry Donnell and Will Tye
Neither Giants tight end is a full-time player and they tend to split snaps and targets pretty equally. If you must play one of the two, do so on FD where they both have Bargain Ratings of 74 percent or higher.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
