The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Cowboys at Browns
The Cowboys are 7.5-point road favorites for their Week 9 matchup against the Browns. The Cowboys are currently implied to score 29 points — the second-highest implied total on the slate. The Browns are currently implied to score 20.5 points and will look to pick up their first win of the season.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
According to Football Outsiders, Prescott is the No. 3 ranked quarterback in the NFL — behind only Tom Brady and Matt Ryan — in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (a QB’s value on a per-play basis) this season. The Browns are the third-worst team in the league against the pass (per FO). They have allowed the most touchdown passes (19), sixth-most passing yards (2,308), and fourth-most fantasy points per game (20.5) to QBs in 2016. Prescott is currently the top-rated QB in CSURAM88’s Player Model for DraftKings, where he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+5.0) among QBs. Despite averaging 21.35 DK points per game in his last four games, Prescott has FantasyLabs projected ownership of just five to eight percent in the Sunday Million. Prescott is viable in all contest formats either naked or part of a stack.
By the way, Tony Romo (back) is out for Week 9. He’s returned to practice but isn’t yet ready to play. How convenient.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott leads the NFL in rushing attempts per game (22.7), rushing yards (799), and rushing yards per game (114.1). The Cowboys have the fourth-best run blocking offensive line in the NFL and the Browns are the second-worst team in the league against the run (per FO). Cleveland has allowed the second-most rushing yards (997) and touchdowns (10) this season. Elliott has not accumulated fewer than 148 total yards or 17 FanDuel points in his last five games. He is currently a top-five rated player in both Adam Levitan’s and our Cash Game Player Model. Zeke is sure to be nice and chalky this week and makes for an excellent cash-game play.
RB – Lance Dunbar
Dunbar (knee) is listed as questionable but practiced fully this week and is expected to play this weekend. He could steal a few snaps and passing-game work from Zeke.
WR – Dez Bryant
The Browns are the second-worst team in the NFL defending opposing No. 1 wide receivers (per FO). They have allowed the third-most yards (1,466) and touchdowns (11) to WRs this season. Bryant hadn’t played in three weeks but was targeted a whopping 14 times in his return. Dez has a 94 percent Bargain Rating on FD, where his FantasyLabs projected ownership is just five to eight percent in the Sunday Million. Bryant is an excellent GPP play this week.
Bryant (knee, back) is officially questionable but is fully expected to play. He was a full participant in practice at Thursday.
WR – Cole Beasley
Last week was the first time all season Beasley failed to score double-digit DK points. He averaged 5.25 targets and 4.25 receptions per game in the month of October. Cole’s 84.4 Pro Football Focus grade ranks him as the sixth-best WR in the NFL this season. Prescott has spread the ball around this season, but Beasley has consistently beat his salary-based expectations on DK.
WR – Terrance Williams
Williams didn’t see reduced opportunity with Bryant back in the lineup. In fact, he was targeted more last week than he has been this entire season. T-Will has averaged 5.75 targets per game over the past month and, per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, leads the Cowboys with a 26.85 percent market share of Air Yards during that time. Williams is dirt cheap on DK and would make an intriguing contrarian stacking partner with Dak in the Millionaire Maker.
TE – Jason Witten
Witten may be old, but he has played every single offensive snap for the Cowboys (69 per game) over the past four weeks. He has averaged 6.25 targets per game during that time frame. According to our Trends tool, comparably-priced tight ends with similar snap counts have traditionally manufactured a +3.31 Plus/Minus with 66.9 percent Consistency on DK. In a week devoid of any true stud talent at TE, Witten is more appealing than normal.
Cleveland Browns
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Cody Kessler
Kessler has been medically cleared and has been named the started for Week 9. This season Kessler has played well above expectations, completing 67 percent of his passes and holding a 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
This week he faces off against a Cowboys defense that has also played well above expectations, ranking 14th in overall defensive DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), per Football Outsiders. They’ve allowed a -0.2 Plus/Minus to opposing quarterbacks on DraftKings over the last 12 months and continue to be one of the slowest-paced teams in the league. Kessler is the lowest-rated quarterback in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model.
RB – Isaiah Crowell
After a serious two-game slump in Weeks 5 and 6, Crowell has picked it back up, scoring a touchdown in back-to-back games. However, he has only 23 carries over that span.
Not only has Crowell struggled with volume, but he faces off against the seventh-ranked rushing defense, per DVOA. The Cowboys have done well with limiting opposing running backs, especially with their style of play: They control the time of possession and limit opposing runners’ attempts. With Crowell already seeing less volume than he did to start the season, this is not a recommended spot. He has only four FanDuel Pro Trends this week and a 17 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Duke Johnson Jr.
Against the Jets last week, Duke saw eight targets, catching six for 87 yards. With the Jets funneling action into the passing game, Duke was predictably more involved. He runs into a similar matchup this week, with the Cowboys ranking 17th in DVOA against the pass and seventh against the run. He also only has four FanDuel Pro Trends on the week, but unlike Crowell, Duke holds an 89 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Terrelle Pryor
Pryor (hamstring) played remarkably well in the first half of Week 8, catching six balls for 101 yards. However, he did not catch a pass in the second half of that game. Pryor was then a non-participant in practice on Wednesday, but Pryor participated fully in Friday’s practice is expected to play this weekend.
He draws a nice matchup against a Cowboys team that will be missing Morris Claiborne and Barry Church in the secondary. The downside for Pryor and the Browns passing game is that the Cowboys project to control the ball in the running game this weekend and should limit the opportunities available.
WR – Corey Coleman
In his breakout game prior to his injury, Coleman turned five catches into 104 yards and two touchdowns. This should be taken with a grain of salt, however, as most of Coleman’s production came against Shareece Wright – who has been possibly the most generous cornerback in the NFL this season.
That being said, he looked really fast and versatile in that game. Similarly, Coleman gets to face off against a Cowboys defense that is missing a starting safety and their top cornerback. In his first game back, it might be best to take a wait-and-see approach and monitor whether Coleman can perform against an actual NFL-caliber cornerback. He projects for a ceiling of only 15.2 DraftKings points per our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Coleman (hand) fully participated in practice on Thursday and Friday. He’s playing this weekend.
WR – Andrew Hawkins
Hawkins amazingly caught two touchdown passes last week. Unfortunately, Coleman returns this week and Baby Hawk averaged only four weekly targets before last week. He should move back to being the fourth passing option with Coleman’s return.
TE – Gary Barnidge
With McCown under center, Barnidge saw a similar target volume to what he had been seeing all season with Kessler. However, he did see two red-zone targets. No matter who is at quarterback, Barnidge continues to see five to eight targets per week as he hunts his first touchdown.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
