The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Cowboys at Vikings
The Cowboys will visit the Vikings as three-point favorites for their Thursday night matchup. The Vikings are currently implied to score 20.3 points — the sixth-lowest mark of the slate — while the Cowboys are currently implied to score 23.3 points.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
According to Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus, Prescott is currently on pace to throw for more yards (4,123.6), an equal amount of touchdowns (26.2), and roughly 25 less interceptions (2.9) than Peyton Manning did in his rookie season: That doesn’t suck. The sledding will be tough this week, as Minnesota ranks sixth in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and fourth against the pass this season (per Football Outsiders). That said, the Vikings have shown some chinks in the armor recently: They allowed a +1.13 Plus/Minus to QBs on DraftKings (per our Trends tool) during the month of November. Also, per our Trends tool: Prescott has delivered a +7.98 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency on DK in his last six games and has not scored fewer than 20.5 points in a game during that time. Even against a tough defense, Dak is good to go in all formats on DK, where he has a 96 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott is PFF’s N0. 1 overall-graded (86.8) and No. 1 run-graded (83.2) running back this season. Elliott leads the NFL in rushing attempts per game (22.1), rushing yards per game (109), and is second in rushing touchdowns (11). The Vikings rush defense has been much more susceptible to the run (ranking 16th in rush DVOA per FO) this season than they have been to the pass, and they were recently shredded by David Johnson for 38 FanDuel points. The Cowboys offensive line is ranked N0. 2 in FO’s Adjusted Line Yards and Elliott is currently the top-rated RB in the CSURAM88 Player Model for FD. Don’t sweat paying up for stud RBs playing on Thursdays; it’s traditionally been good business. Elliott is an elite play in all formats and should be played with great confidence.
WR – Dez Bryant
Bryant has been targeted 24 times in his last three games and has averaged 8.4 targets per game in his last six games. During those six games, he has scored a total of four touchdowns, eclipsed 110 receiving yards twice, and scored at least 19.3 FD points three times. A week after locking horns with the Redskins’ Josh Norman, Bryant now has to contend with the Vikings’ Xavier Rhodes (per our Matchups tool), who is PFF’s No. 18 graded cornerback (81.4) this season. Despite the difficult matchup, Dez is an intriguing play in guaranteed prize pools, particularly on touchdown-heavy FD, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Cole Beasley
Per our Player Models, Beasley has delivered 93 percent Consistency on DK (a top-five ranking among wide receivers) over the past 12 months. He has been targeted six or more times in six straight games and has had at least five catches in all but one of those games. During that six-game stretch, Beasley has averaged 14.42 DK points per game and has scored fewer than 10.3 DK points just twice in his 11 games played this season. The Vikings’ slot-corner, Captain Munnerlyn (PFF’s 28th-graded CB), is no slouch, but Beasley is a safe play on a PPR site like DK.
WR – Terrance Williams
Williams has been targeted an average of two times per game over his past four games and has averaged 3.87 DK points during that time. He is no more than a GPP Hail Mary stacked with Dak.
TE – Jason Witten
Witten is currently the No. 3 rated tight end in the Levitanimal’s Player Model for DK. Minnesota is ranked 19th in DVOA against TEs this season and have allowed a TE (including the great Jermaine Gresham) to score at least 11.3 DK points in four of their last five games. Witten never leaves the field and has averaged seven targets per game in his last four games. Priced at just $3,400 on DK with the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+5.11) among TEs on the slate, he’s a safe cash-game play.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Sam Bradford
Bradford was limited in practice this week with an ankle injury, but he’s good to go for Thursday night. He’s thrown 37-plus passes in five of his last six games, but he hasn’t thrown the ball downfield enough to rack up much fantasy production. Overall, Bradford has averaged a league-low 6.4 aDOT through 12 weeks, per PFF. This hasn’t helped him find the end zone, as he’s thrown for more than one touchdown in just three of his 10 games this season. Bradford is priced at $6,600 on FanDuel with a +2.43 Projected Plus/Minus and does have a good matchup against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the eighth-most average fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
McKinnon managed to convert his 12 touches into 76 total yards during the Vikings’ Thanksgiving Day loss to the Lions, but it was still a somewhat disappointing performance against the league’s worst defense in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). McKinnon is still locked into a timeshare with Matt Asiata, and it’s hard to get too excited about either back considering they are on pace to finish as the second-worst rush offense since the merger in terms of average yards per carry, per PFR. McKinnon is the cheaper option this week and his $3,300 price tag on DraftKings comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and a +5.97 Projected Plus/Minus. He’ll face a Cowboys defense that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher through 12 weeks.
RB – Matt Asiata
Asiata has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games, although his workload has continued to shrink. He received 16-plus touches from Week 5 to Week 8 but has failed to touch the ball more than eight times in consecutive weeks. Asiata has dominated goal-line work (he has 12 carries inside the five-yard line compared to just two for McKinnon, per PFR), but his opportunities could be limited, as the Cowboys lead the league in time of possession through 12 weeks. Asiata is priced at $3,500 on DK with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and has five Pro Trends.
WR – Stefon Diggs
Diggs didn’t play last week but has practiced all week and is expected to be good to go for Thursday night. He’s been one of the most featured receivers in the league this season, as he’s been targeted on 17.9 percent of his snaps – the eighth-highest mark among all wide receivers. This involvement has helped Diggs post a season-long +3.46 Plus/Minus. He’ll look to expose a Cowboys defense that has allowed seven different slot receivers to score touchdowns this season, per cbssports.com. Diggs is priced at $6,500 on FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has a +5.95 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Adam Thielen
Thielen corralled a season-high eight receptions last week, but his role is expected to shrink as Diggs is expected to return to the lineup. This is bad news for Thielen, who has struggled to get much of anything going with Diggs healthy this season:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, we see that Thielen has averaged a 3.33-43.44-0.22 line during his nine games with Diggs in the lineup this season. This week, his salary has reached a season-high $4,900 on DK, where he has a low 2.5-point projected floor.
WR – Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson received only six touches last week with Diggs sidelined and averaged just 3.5 touches over the previous two weeks. His salary has increased by $600 this month on DK and he’s now one of the most overpriced receivers on the slate with a Projected Plus/Minus of -1.84. Patterson is not a recommended fantasy option this week.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph has been targeted eight-plus times in two of his last three games. Overall, his average of 7.1 targets per game ranks fourth among all tight ends this season. This week, Rudolph has a great matchup against a Cowboys defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against tight ends. Additionally, the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most average fantasy points to tight ends this season, per fantasydata.com. Rudolph is priced at $4,100 on DK with a +4.58 Plus/Minus and has six Pro Trends.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
