It’s the final third of the NFL Regular season, as we’re on to Week 13. As usual, DraftKings is opening contests and releasing salaries for the week ahead on Sunday evening. In the fast-changing landscape of the NFL, that leaves plenty of time for obvious value to appear.
Let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 13, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently. Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
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NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jarred Goff ($5,300) Detroit Lions (-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51.5 Total)
While his counterpart Trevor Lawrence ($5,900) leads the position in Pts/Sal, Goff is my favorite cheap quarterback option this week. The Lions are home favorites against the Jaguars in one of the highest total games on the slate.
My preference for Goff over Lawrence stems from the defensive matchup presented by both teams. While Detroit is a sub-par defense all around, they’ve performed better against the pass than the run and have actually held opposing quarterbacks to a negative Opponent Plus/Minus score this season.
Compare that to the Jaguars, whose +4.5 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed is the second highest on the slate. Jacksonville is a significant pass funnel, with the 13th-ranked run defense by DVOA but 30th ranked pass defense. Goff has been frustrating at times since the Lions tend to finish drives with rushing touchdowns, but those defensive splits could tilt scores his way.
This game should be a popular one for GPPs, but Goff is likely to be less owned than Lawrence. Add to that the cost savings and the more obvious stacking partner in Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100), and he’s a great tournament play.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Joshua Palmer ($5,600) Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (50.5 total)
The aforementioned St. Brown leads the Pts/Sal projections this week, but Palmer is hot on his heels. Palmer has quietly carved out a major role in the Chargers offense, averaging over nine targets per game over his last five games played.
That’s a huge discount relative to his price in a game that expects to be a shootout. The Raiders have the league’s worst pass defense by DVOA, so cheap exposure to the Chargers’ aerial assault will come in handy this week.
While much of Palmer’s production came when Keenan Allen ($6,500) was out of the lineup, Palmer has out-targeted Allen 17-15 since Allen returned to action. If anything, Allen has helped draw defensive attention away from Palmer, with Palmer’s 33.60-point performance coming with Allen in the lineup.
Palmer is, at worst, the No. 2 receiver in this offense and probably more of a 1B. He’s simply far too cheap for that strong of a role in an explosive offense.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
Travis Etienne ($6,400) Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at Detroit Lions
One of the reasons to consider rostering Goff over Lawrence is that Travis Etienne is such a strong play. With the Lions a run-funnel defense and Etienne serving as a true every-down back, he’s in an excellent spot this week.
While Etienne exited last week with an injury, early reports are that it was minor, and he should be good to go for Week 12. In his first two games without James Robinson, Etienne handled 52 carries and five targets, scoring a combined 57.8 DraftKings points.
Since then, he lost one game due to an extremely negative game script against the Chiefs, then made an early exit last week. That’s brought his salary back to a more reasonable level, making him an excellent Week 12 option. He trails only Jeff Wilson Jr. ($6,100) in Pts/Sal projection, but Wilson has a tougher matchup and is also dealing with a minor injury.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Hayden Hurst ($3,500) Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (52.5 total)
Hurst is another cheap option in an expected shootout, as his Bengals host the Chiefs in the week’s highest total game. Ja’Marr Chase could be back for the Bengals — which would hurt Hurst’s target share — but boost the offense overall, which should be a net positive.
Additionally, Kansas City has been far more vulnerable to tight ends than receivers. They’ve allowed an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.0 to tight ends but -0.1 to wide receivers. That mark against tight ends is tied for the highest on the slate.
Ultimately, Hurst will need to score a touchdown (or two) to really smash at his price point, but he has a strong median and floor even without finding the end zone.
He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection on the slate.