The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Texans at Raiders
The Raiders will host the Texans as 5.5-point favorites for their Monday night matchup. The Texans are currently implied to score 20.25 points, while the Raiders are currently implied to score 25.75 points. This game will be played in Mexico; let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Osweiler didn’t commit a turnover for the first time all season during the Texans’ Week 10 win over the Jaguars. He also failed to surpass 100 passing yards for the first time all season. The days of Osweiler garnering any sort of fantasy consideration are over. He’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of his last five games and has yet to throw for more than 275 yards this season. Take one look at Osweiler’s advanced stats and it’s even more clear that he is a bottom-five quarterback in the league:
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller’s monstrous usage has become a thing of the past. After he received 20-plus touches in five of the first six games of the season, he’s received fewer than 20 touches in three straight games. Just because Miller is no longer guaranteed a massive workload doesn’t mean he can’t be a useful fantasy asset, but the explosiveness that he regularly showed in Miami has been lacking this season. Per playerprofiler.com, he’s rushed for 15-plus yards on just 3.6 percent of his rush attempts this season – the 46th-highest rate among all running backs. Miller is priced at $7,100 on FanDuel with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.79 Projected Plus/Minus. He does have a nice matchup against a Raiders defense that has allowed an average of 4.7 yards per rush this season – tied for the second-highest mark in the league.
Miller (ankle) finished the week off of the injury report. After being limited in practice this week, he’s fully expected to play.
RB – Alfred Blue
Blue has had seven-plus carries in each of the past three weeks, as the Texans have limited Miller’s workload due to this shoulder injury. While Blue is averaging a strong 4.9 yards per carry, he won’t be considered a fantasy option unless Miller is forced to miss some games.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins gained over 75 receiving yards in 11 games last season. This season, he’s surpassed that threshold once. Hopkins is getting fed the ball – he has 12-plus targets in three of his last four games – but it’s hard to imagine him putting up a big game when his quarterback can’t even throw for more than 100 yards on 27 attempts. His touchdown upside is also limited, as the team has failed to feed him the ball in the red zone. After finishing tied for fourth among all receivers with 22 red-zone targets last season, he’s received just five red-zone targets this entire season. The result has been a brutal season-long -2.93 Plus/Minus. Hopkins is priced at $7,100 on FD with a 90 percent Bargain Rating, although he has a tough matchup against cornerbacks David Amerson and Sean Smith – PFF’s 15th- and 16th-highest graded cornerbacks this season.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller wasn’t active last week but returned to practice Wednesday and appears to be on track to play Monday. He’ll look to break out of his cold streak, as he’s gained fewer than 35 yards and not scored a touchdown in four of his last five games. If there were ever a week for Fuller to break out, it might as well be this one, as the Raiders have allowed a league-high 11 passes of 40-plus yards this season. He’s priced at $6,100 on FD with an 86 percent Bargain Rating, although his 1.6-point projected floor is the the lowest mark among all wide receivers priced over $6,000 on FD.
Fuller (leg) is officially questionable and expected to a game-time decision.
WR – Braxton Miller
Miller was targeted twice last week in a game in which he was the No. 2 receiver in the offense. While the lack of targets is worrisome enough, his 5.6 aDOT is the fourth-lowest mark among all wide receivers this season, per PFF. Miller isn’t a downfield threat and hasn’t been targeted more than four times in a game this season. He shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option this week.
TE – C.J. Fiedorowicz
Fiedorowicz has been targeted five-plus times in six straight games. While this volume is great, it hasn’t included the fantasy-friendly targets that we like to see from tight ends. Fiedorowicz has been targeted inside the 10-yard line just once this season. Additionally, Ryan Griffin has received five-plus targets in four of his last six games, cutting into Fiedorowicz’s upside. Osweiler has targeted his tight ends on 24.9 percent of his passes over the past 12 months – the third-highest mark in the league. This volume is great for Fiedorowicz, but Osweiler being his quarterback is not so great. Fiedorowicz is priced at $5,100 on FD with an 81 percent Bargain Rating, although he has a tough matchup against a Raiders defense that has allowed just 0.8 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
Quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends all have a positive Plus/Minus coming off a bye, but it’s small. Before the bye, Carr did set the Raiders’ franchise record for passing yards with 513 in Week 8; besides that, his last four games have been largely unimpressive:
He did face the Broncos last week, but it doesn’t get much easier on Monday Night Football against a Texans team allowing a -2.4 point Opponent Plus/Minus over the past 12 months — the second-worst mark on the slate. Carr is priced at $6,400 on DK with a 63 percent Bargain Rating and has the fourth-lowest Projected Plus/Minus of the week. He carries a ton of risk, as he is currently the second-lowest rated DK QB in the Adam Levitan Model.
RB – Latavius Murray
Matchups may be overrated for favored RBs at home, but the Texans are 31st in DVOA against RBs and are just one of eight teams to allow at least 10 rushing touchdowns this season. With volume and red-zone opportunity mitigating his inefficiency, Murray might be a sneaky option this week. Murray has seen less competition in this backfield since his return and is averaging 19 touches over his last three games. He has enough touchdown equity and involvement in the passing game to warrant consideration in all formats.
Murray (ankle) is officially questionable for Week 11, but practiced all week and is expected to play.
RB – DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Jamize Olawale
Too talented to ignore, too limited to roster, too productive to allow Latavius a real chance to be a workhorse, this trio of terror is the DFS WOAT.
WR – Amari Cooper
He’s been one of the best receivers in the league this year and, over his past four games, is top-25 in target market share of Air Yards (30.11 percent) and top-20 in target market share (26.11 percent). Houston has held WRs to a slate-low -0.8 Plus/Minus over the past 12 months on FD. Per our Matchups tool, Cooper also finds himself in a very difficult matchup against A.J. Bouye, PFF’s highest-graded cornerback this season. However, Allen Robinson did drop a 9-107-1 line on him last week on 13 targets. Cooper is fine in GPPs based on talent and volume, but the spot is not ideal for cash games at $7,700 on FD.
Cooper (back) is officially questionable but fully expected to play.
WR – Michael Crabtree
No one in this passing game is a great play by any means, but Crabtree is 15th in the league in target share of Air Yards (35.11 percent) and gets a much better matchup than Cooper. Crabtree will feast off of Johnathan Joseph in this one, PFF’s 86th-ranked CB. There are much worse contrarian plays in GPPs this week, and Cooper has a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FD. Home favorite WRs with comparable salaries and projected points typically perform above salary-based expectations:
WR – Seth Roberts
It’s the same old story with Roberts: Carr looks to him in the red zone, but he is not a focal point in the Raiders’ offense, even in good situations. He has a scary floor of 1.3 points on FD and a ceiling of just 11.6 points in Week 11.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford has had a limited impact through eight weeks, with no more than three catches in a game over the past five weeks. Things won’t get easier against a Texans defense ranked eighth in pass DVOA against TEs.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
