Our NFL product at FantasyLabs is powered by our Models, which feature projections from Sean Koerner. He’s been FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season ranker in three of the past four seasons, which makes our Models a must-have for the serious DFS player.

One of the best ways to incorporate his projections is by looking at each player’s Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Projected Plus/Minus is a proprietary metric that measures projected points vs. expected points. The higher the number, the better that player is expected to perform relative to his price tag.

If you wind up rostering players who finish the week with a good Plus/Minus, there’s a good chance you’re going to find yourself at the top of the leaderboards.

Here are six players who are popping in our NFL Models for Week 3.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott ($6,500 on DraftKings) vs. Miami Dolphins

Prescott has been nothing short of phenomenal to start the 2019 season. He leads all QBs with an 82.3% completion percentage and an average of 10.9 yards per pass attempt, and he’s thrown seven touchdowns to just one interception. He’s also averaged 40.5 yards per game rushing, which would represent a new career high. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +15.00 on DraftKings.

He takes the field in an elite matchup against the Dolphins. It’s impossible to overstate just how bad their defense has been this season. They’ve allowed a mind-boggling average of 51.0 points per game and rank dead-last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. The Cowboys are whopping 22.5-point favorites at home, and the Cowboys lead the slate with an implied team total of 35.0 points. Prescott has historically thrived as a home favorite, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.68 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).

Running Back

Chris Carson ($5,900 on DraftKings) vs. New Orleans Saints

Carson might fly a little under-the-radar this week given his Buzz Rating of 5.8, but he deserves heavy consideration. He takes the field as a home favorite in Seattle, which is a situation he’s historically crushed. Carson has averaged 16.75 DraftKings points over eight starts as a home favorite, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.13. He’s also posted a Consistency Rating of 87.5%, which increases his appeal for cash games.

Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Carson

Carson has also been involved in the pass game this season, which is a new wrinkle for him. He’s averaged five targets per game through his first two contests, and that represents a massive increased compared to his average of 1.71 last year.

This matchup vs. the Saints is incredibly juicy. They’ve been shredded on the ground through the first two weeks, ranking dead last in rush defense DVOA.

Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 on FanDuel) at Arizona Cardinals

McCaffrey isn’t exactly cheap at $8,900, but he still stands out as one of the best values on FanDuel. He leads all RBs with a projected Plus/Minus of +4.79, and his Bargain Rating of 95% ranks fourth at the position.

He’s coming off one of the worst games of his career in his last outing, but he’s in a prime bounce back spot vs. the Cardinals. They rank second in neutral pace this season, and they’ve allowed an average of 149 rushing yards through the first two weeks.

Of course, McCaffrey is capable of shredding teams on the ground and through the air. He posted a target share of 29% in Week 1, and he lead the team with a 22.7% target share in 2018. Basically, he has the capability of giving you a RB1 performance and a WR1 performance in any given game.

Sean Koerner’s predictive model is very bullish on McCaffrey this week. He leads all RBs with a 21.0% chance of finishing as the number one overall RB and a 55.8% chance of finishing in the top five.

Wide Receiver

Nelson Agholor ($3,600 on DraftKings) vs. Detroit Lions

Welcome to Agholor chalk week.

The Eagles’ receiving corps has been decimated by injuries early in the season: DeSean Jackson (groin) will almost certainly miss Sunday’s game, and Alshon Jeffery (calf) isn’t expected to play, either. Even TE Dallas Goedert is questionable, which would leave the Eagles basically devoid of pass catchers outside of Agholor and Zach Ertz.

Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nelson Agholor

Agholor is coming off eight catches for 107 yards and a TD on 11 targets in Week 2, and he played on all but three snaps. Including last week, Agholor has averaged 9.5 targets, seven receptions, 63 yards and 0.5 receiving TDs in four games without Jeffery since the beginning of 2018. It’s simply hard to find that kind of projected volume at such a low price tag.

Larry Fitzgerald ($5,900 on FanDuel) vs. Carolina Panthers

Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense was expected to bring lots of fantasy goodness to Arizona, and it hasn’t disappointed so far. Rookie QB Kyler Murray has passed for at least 300 yards in each of his first two starts, and virtually all of that production is going to the WR position. The WRs have garnered 73 targets this season, while the TEs and RBs have combined for just 16.

Fitzgerald has been the biggest beneficiary. He’s logged at least 11 targets and 104 receiving yards in both games this season, and he’s also recorded one receiving TD. There’s no reason to expect the Cardinals to start passing the ball less, so it’s hard to expect too much regression from Fitzgerald moving forward. If anything, the Cardinals offense should average more than just one passing TD per game, so Fitzgerald has massive upside at his current price tag.

Tight End

George Kittle ($6,600 on FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Kittle has struggled a bit to start the season, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his first two games. That said, things haven’t been nearly as bad as they seem on paper. He had two TDs called back due to penalty in Week 1, and he simply wasn’t needed much in a 24-point win over the Bengals in Week 2.

He’s been priced down across the industry heading into Week 3, which makes him a prime buy-low target. He’s seen a price decrease of -$700 on FanDuel and -$1,000 on DraftKings over the past month, and he’s in a strong spot vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. They gave up 19.50 FanDuel points to Will Dissly last week, and TEs projected for at least eight points have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.60 on FanDuel when facing the Steelers since the beginning of 2018.

Pictured: Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald (11)
Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA Today Sports