Adam Levitan projects ownership for every NFL DFS player each week in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Gauging ownership is important in tournaments so you can try to gain leverage on the field. You don’t need a team of 1%-owned players to win a tournament, but it’s also unlikely you’ll win a tournament with an abundance of highly-owned players.
The goal of this article is to give a brief rundown of the players we project to be the highest owned heading into the week, along with how they can affect roster construction. And just to get you thinking about the slate and roster construction in general.
Be sure to check the ownership projections throughout the week, as breaking news can cause these to fluctuate.
Week 17 is a different animal when it comes to DFS. We have a motivation factor to worry about, teams resting starters, and our usual injuries on top of that. So, let’s dive in.
Note: Ownership percentages as of Saturday morning.
Quarterbacks
We have five or six quarterbacks projected for 9-12% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. All of them are either involved in must-win games, or games where we feel comfortable they’ll be playing it like business as usual. Those quarterbacks are Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, and then Daniel Jones on FanDuel.
None of these quarterbacks offer much leverage in tournaments, but in a Week 17 where there are a lot fewer options in play to feel comfortable with, they’re all usable.
If Dak Prescott were healthy, I’m fairly certain he would be one of the highest owned quarterbacks on the slate in a must-win game against the Redkins. Despite his AC joint sprain, the Cowboys let him throw it 44 times last week. I doubt they need to throw that much against Washington, but he could be worth some tournament exposure if you’re more risk-averse.
Running Backs
The three running backs expected to catch the most ownership are Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones. I’d expect most teams to have at least one of these running backs in their roster, and most likely two of them depending on if they’re going to try and pay up for Michael Thomas and/or Julio Jones. In single-entry and three-entry tournaments, I’m leaning on playing two of them.
Ownership percentages haven’t been changed for this yet, but it’s possible Ryquell Armstead slides into a lot of rosters now that Leonard Fournette (illness) is doubtful. He’ll be a strong salary-relief option to fit in these other high-priced studs.
Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey
Even if he’s projected for high ownership, he’s still worth a play in tournaments because of what else he allows for your team.
Alvin Kamara is looking like a potential leverage play with his Leverage Plus/Minus, but there can be some risk in the Saints since if the Packers beat the Lions, New Orleans’ game is meaningless. Although they do play at the same time, so the risk is likely small.
The Bengals-Browns game is likely a game where the two teams just carry on as usual, making Joe Mixon a solid leverage play if he continues to see his normal workload. Despite being sick last week, he still saw 23 touches, making it the fourth-straight game with 22 or more touches. Mixon boasts a top-five Leverage Plus/Minus on both sites.
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and John Ross are all projected to be the three highest owned receivers at 26-40% in large-field tournaments. With Fournette getting downgraded, fitting in Julio and/or Thomas will be even easier.
Davante Adams is next in line and he’s the only one of the chalkier receivers who has a positive Leverage Plus/Minus. The risk in Adams is if the Packers are blowing out the Lions, he might just sit the rest of the game. However, if Green Bay is blowing them out, there’s a decent chance Adams had something to do with that.
Justin Watson and Ross will likely be the most popular salary relief options to get to the studs. Given Ross is such a volatile option, there could be merit in fading him in tournaments, but it’s also hard to pass up on his ceiling. People will gravitate toward his 13 targets last week, but the Bengals also ran 90 plays, way more than their normal amount. I’ll still want some exposure to Ross given his ceiling.
My favorite leverage play at receiver is Allen Robinson, who will be playing indoors against a Vikings team that is expected to rest their starters. Their starting cornerbacks aren’t even good, so playing the backups seems even more ideal. Robinson carries a top seven Leverage Plus/Minus on both sites.
Tight Ends
With Zach Ertz (ribs, back) ruled out, Dallas Goedert by far has the highest projected ownership at 21-30%. Even though he’ll be high owned, I still plan on building around him for single-entry tournaments and cash games. There’s just too much target share absent from this offense and it’s a must-win game.
Tyler Higbee is a strong play if you think he plays the whole game. Sean McVay mentioned sitting some starters, but so far there’s nothing suggesting Higbee would sit this out. The other only tight ends in my player pool would be Travis Kelce if you’re looking to pay up, otherwise, I’m going all the way down to Kaden Smith.
Both tight ends have positive Leverage Plus/Minuses, and I discussed them in my ceiling article earlier in the week.
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyler Higbee
Defense
The Bears defense has the highest projected ownership on DraftKings at 17-20%. This makes sense since they cost just $2,100 against a Vikings team resting their starters. The Patriots and Steelers have a 13-16% ownership projection on FanDuel.
At $3,500, the Steelers are easily the best defensive play on FanDuel against Baltimore’s backups. The Steelers rank second, first and second in sacks per game, sack rate and pressure rate, respectively. The main defenses in my player pool are Chicago, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and the Jets. You can also make a case for the Chiefs.
Pictured above: Allen Robinson
Photo Credit: USA Today Sports
