NFL Week 16 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Washington Football Team and the Dallas Cowboys starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Studs
This game was expected to have massive implications in the NFC East, but the Cowboys have blown away the rest of the division. They’ve already clinched a spot in the postseason, and they could lock up the division with a win over the Football Team. They’re currently listed as nine-point home favorites, so they’re expected to get the job done.
The Cowboys have excelled defensively of late, but don’t sleep on their offensive ability. They’re led by quarterback Dak Prescott, who will be looking to bounce back following a poor recent stretch. He’s scored 12.22 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his past three games, despite averaging nearly 40 pass attempts in those contests.
The Football Team represents a perfect matchup for Prescott to get right. They’ve struggled defensively this season, ranking just 27th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. Prescott has also historically thrived as a home favorite, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.31 on DraftKings in 39 previous occurrences (per the Trends tool).
Overall, Prescott stands out as the clear top stud on a slate without a ton of firepower. He leads all players in our NFL Models in median and ceiling projection, and he also owns a top-two mark across the industry in Projected Plus/Minus.
Prescott will be opposed by Taylor Heinicke, who has held his own as the Football Team’s starting quarterback this season. He missed last week’s game after landing in health and safety protocols, but he’s 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt with 19 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions.
Unfortunately, he’s going to have to deal with the Cowboys’ ferocious pass rush this week. DeMarcus Lawrence has been one of the best edge rushers in football over the past few seasons, and he’s been joined by Randy Gregory and Micah Parsons this season. Those three players give the Cowboys arguably the best group of pass rushers in the league, and they took down Heinicke for four sacks just two weeks ago. They also limited him to 122 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception before eventually being lifted for Kyle Allen.
Heinicke owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.3 on DraftKings, which is the worst mark on the entire slate. Still, Heinicke is a quarterback, and those players are always intriguing in the single-game format. He trails only Prescott in terms of Ceiling Projection, and he should command far less ownership.
Prescott’s poor production recently has unsurprisingly had an impact on his pass-catchers. CeeDee Lamb owns a correlation of +0.52 with Prescott on DraftKings, so both players tend to succeed at the same time.
Lamb remains the clear focal point in the Cowboys’ passing attack. He’s racked up at least nine targets in each of his past three games, and he’s averaged nearly 11 targets over that time frame. That provides plenty of optimism for a bounce-back vs. the Football Team, especially if he can find the end zone.
Midrange
Ezekiel Elliott continues to receive the majority of rushing attempts for the Cowboys, but his lead over Tony Pollard is shrinking. Zeke had 16 carries last week compared to 12 for Pollard, and Pollard continues to outproduce his “superstar” teammate. He’s averaged 5.7 yards per carry this season, while Zeke has averaged just 4.3.
However, Elliott continues to dominate the rushing attempts near the goal line. He’s racked up 14 carries inside the five-yard line this season, while Pollard has just one. That unsurprisingly gives Zeke a massive edge in rushing touchdowns (nine vs. two).
That increased scoring upside keeps Elliott as the preferred target between the two. Even though he’s significantly more expensive than Pollard across the industry, he owns an edge in terms of projected Plus/Minus on this slate.
Terry McLaurin is the Football Team’s top pass-catcher, and he is a clear alpha. He leads the team with a 24% target share and a 43% air yards share, and no one else on the squad comes close in either metric. His five receiving touchdowns also ranks first on the team.
However, his production has waned recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s posted his worst performance of the year in his first meeting with the Cowboys. He failed to haul in any of his four targets, so he didn’t score a single fantasy point. The Cowboys rank No. 1 in DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers, so this is about as tough as it gets from a matchup perspective.
Still, McLaurin has some buy-low appeal at his current salary. His price has decreased by -$2,400 from its peak on DraftKings, and his $8,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Antonio Gibson is the Football Team’s other superstar, and he’s currently questionable with a toe injury. That said, he’s expected to be in the lineup.
As long as that happens, Gibson should command a sizable workload vs. the Cowboys. He’s seen a noticeable uptick in targets with J.D. McKissic out of the lineup recently, logging at least six targets in three of the past four weeks. He responded with at least 18.5 DraftKings points in all three of those contests.
However, the Cowboys were the one team to keep Gibson in check recently. They limited him to just 5.1 DraftKings points, but there are plenty of reasons to expect a better performance Sunday night. For starters, Gibson didn’t play much in the second half after the game got out of hand. He stands out as an elite option at just $8,400 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are the Cowboys’ secondary options at receiver, and they’re priced very similarly on DraftKings. That feels off – Cooper is considered the superior player – but our Models actually give Gallup the edge in scoring this week. That makes he the preferred option as the cheaper player.
The pricing discrepancy is a bit starker on FanDuel, and Gallup stands out as an excellent value there. He’s priced at just $9,500, making him -$2,500 cheaper than Cooper.
If Gibson is surprisingly ruled out, Jaret Patterson would take over as the team’s featured back. He scored 8.0 DraftKings points last week, but his production was definitely fluky. He finished with just four carries and 10 snaps, but he punched in a touchdown. He’s also been priced up super aggressively with Gibson questionable, so there’s no reason to consider him if Gibson is active.
Dalton Schultz has become a big part of the Cowboys’ passing attack. He racked up eight targets last week, which he turned into eight catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. Overall, he’s scored at least 11.3 DraftKings points in three of his past five games. He’s a strong option at his price tag across the industry.
Finally, Adam Humphries and DeAndre Carter stand out as the secondary pass-catchers for the Football Team. Curtis Samuel is not expected to suit up this evening, so both players should see plenty of snaps. Humphries has seen at least five targets in three straight games, so he stands out as the safer option.
Quick Hits
- Ricky Seals-Jones ($4,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): RSJ has served as the Football Team’s starting TE when Logan Thomas has been out of the lineup this season. He’s coming off seven targets last week, and he had three straight games with at least 9.1 DraftKings points in place of Thomas earlier this season.
- Defenses and Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them.
- John Bates ($2,200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Bates should see a solid handful of snaps as the TE2 for Washington. He played on 34 snaps last week, but he finished with just one target.
- Cam Sims ($2,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Sims has some big-play potential, but he saw just one target last week. He also played on just 25 snaps.
- Cedrick Wilson ($1,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Wilson would really only have viability if something happened to one of the Cowboys’ top receivers, but anything can happen on a single-game slate.
